I wanted to start my end of the year reviews with 30 Minutes or Less because of director Ruben Fleischer, whose Zombieland was the most pleasant surprise of 2009, a genuinely funny take on the zombie genre. And again Fleischer has surprised me with 30 Minutes or Less.
This time, however, it is not a pleasant surprise.
It is worth noting that the films do not share writers. 30 Minutes or Less is the first film of a Michael Diliberti screenplay. I have tried and failed to understand what drew people to this screenplay.
Was it the central plot? A pizza delivery driver is strpped to a bomb and told to rob a bank. When told the film is supposed to be a comedy, did anyone ever say, "Wait a minute. That's not a funny idea."
Even worse, didn't anyone say that the script didn't have much in the way of humor? Or that the guys who hook up this bomb are brain dead idiots, with nothing whatsoever interesting or appealing about them?
So since those characters are idiots, casting puts Danny McBride and Nick Swardson in the roles of the instigators. McBride can play this role in his sleep, and Swardson has minimal comic ability, so this compounds the problem.
Fleischer still has a flair as a director, and Jesse Eisenberg and especially Aziz Ansari try their best in the lead roles. But this script simply shouldn't have been filmed. Someone should have strapped a bomb to the script, and detonated. Grade: D-
Saturday, December 31, 2011
Looking at the past year
So much for my grand plans in 2011 of making a great blog. Not enough posts. So to recap the year, I am setting a goal to post every day or two a review, working my way up over the next month to my best of the year list, which is not yet finalized. These review will be marked as I saw them. If it is tagged movie review, I saw it in a theater. Tagged video review? Caught up with it at home. First off, I will review the biggest surprise I had in the theater this year. Wish me luck on my goals...
Oscar predictions preview
As we hit the end of the year, it is closing in on the time to set Oscar predictions. I always wait until the Golden Globes ceremonies to set my predictions, not for the awards winners at the Globes, which are meaningless, but for the audience reactions, as a lot of Academy members are in the audience. Ang Lee gets huge applause in 2000? Gonna be a good year for Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon. David Carradine gets little applause for his nomination for Kill Bill? Scratch him off the Oscar list. Usually a couple of tweaks come from reactions in that room.
But I digress. This post is to sum up where I see the Best Picture race right now. With the rule change allowing anywhere between five and ten nominees, this is making predictions hard. The rules declare a film must gain a certain percentage of first place votes, so the key is to find films people love, not just like. So here's my list of expected nominees, though not final, just what I view at this point.
The Artist. When this debuted at Cannes, it vaulted to the top of almost every Oscar prognosticator's list. And it hasn't moved. The Academy is generally older, a bit conservative in artistic tastes, but a bit liberal polically. So a silent film, which pays tribute to a golden age of cinema? Sold.
The Descendants. Alexander Payne's last film, Sideways, scored multiple nominations. This film is more emotional in a way that generally hooks in Academy voters, while retaining the excellance that, in my humble opinion, has been in every one of Payne's films. Another lock.
The Help. This is the third lock after The Descendants and The Artist. A bit traditional for some critics, but that's a plus for the traditional Academy. It takes on a topic, segregation in the South, which has been awarded by past Oscars. And the acting is of high caliber, liekly looking at three nominated actresses, that its on every member need to see list.
Hugo. Here we start getting out of the lock category, but I think Hugo should be in. The subplot about film preservation help a lot, especially since it echos Martin Scorsese's favorite cause. But most importaqntly Scorsese shows us all how 3D is supposed to be used, to open up the screen rather than just make an advertising gimmic.
Midnight in Paris. Woody Allen has a long successful history at the Oscars. This was a surprisingly sucessful film, both artisticly and at the box office. There are enough woody fans in the Academy to put this forward, I believe.
The Tree of Life. And here's where the predictions get tougher. Part of it is that there is definitely nothing like this film in the other possible nominees list (or really, ever). Terence Malick has been in the best picture race before, for The Thin Red Line. This has NO chance to win best picture. But I believe there is enough of a fan base to get a nomination.
Moneyball. My shakiest pick. It doesn't quite match up with the other films, but has a lot of respect, especially from the writers. (Read the book sometime. How do you adapt that?) Of there is one film I can see gather enough of the younger voters in the Academy, this would be it. And this is a director who has had a best picture nom before (Capote).
That brings my current total to seven. Where's War Horse? While I would not be massively surprised to see it nominated, I think ultimately it came out in the wrong year. I think the majority of people who are nostalgic for classic moviemaking are voting for The Artist or Hugo. And The Help takes votes away as well. To be nominated, a film has to be the first choice of enough voters, and ultimately I belive War Horse is a second or third choice to those films.
At this point, I see nothing else gathering up enough steam. But I reserve the right to change my mind. For now, that is how I see best picture.
But I digress. This post is to sum up where I see the Best Picture race right now. With the rule change allowing anywhere between five and ten nominees, this is making predictions hard. The rules declare a film must gain a certain percentage of first place votes, so the key is to find films people love, not just like. So here's my list of expected nominees, though not final, just what I view at this point.
The Artist. When this debuted at Cannes, it vaulted to the top of almost every Oscar prognosticator's list. And it hasn't moved. The Academy is generally older, a bit conservative in artistic tastes, but a bit liberal polically. So a silent film, which pays tribute to a golden age of cinema? Sold.
The Descendants. Alexander Payne's last film, Sideways, scored multiple nominations. This film is more emotional in a way that generally hooks in Academy voters, while retaining the excellance that, in my humble opinion, has been in every one of Payne's films. Another lock.
The Help. This is the third lock after The Descendants and The Artist. A bit traditional for some critics, but that's a plus for the traditional Academy. It takes on a topic, segregation in the South, which has been awarded by past Oscars. And the acting is of high caliber, liekly looking at three nominated actresses, that its on every member need to see list.
Hugo. Here we start getting out of the lock category, but I think Hugo should be in. The subplot about film preservation help a lot, especially since it echos Martin Scorsese's favorite cause. But most importaqntly Scorsese shows us all how 3D is supposed to be used, to open up the screen rather than just make an advertising gimmic.
Midnight in Paris. Woody Allen has a long successful history at the Oscars. This was a surprisingly sucessful film, both artisticly and at the box office. There are enough woody fans in the Academy to put this forward, I believe.
The Tree of Life. And here's where the predictions get tougher. Part of it is that there is definitely nothing like this film in the other possible nominees list (or really, ever). Terence Malick has been in the best picture race before, for The Thin Red Line. This has NO chance to win best picture. But I believe there is enough of a fan base to get a nomination.
Moneyball. My shakiest pick. It doesn't quite match up with the other films, but has a lot of respect, especially from the writers. (Read the book sometime. How do you adapt that?) Of there is one film I can see gather enough of the younger voters in the Academy, this would be it. And this is a director who has had a best picture nom before (Capote).
That brings my current total to seven. Where's War Horse? While I would not be massively surprised to see it nominated, I think ultimately it came out in the wrong year. I think the majority of people who are nostalgic for classic moviemaking are voting for The Artist or Hugo. And The Help takes votes away as well. To be nominated, a film has to be the first choice of enough voters, and ultimately I belive War Horse is a second or third choice to those films.
At this point, I see nothing else gathering up enough steam. But I reserve the right to change my mind. For now, that is how I see best picture.
Friday, December 30, 2011
Christmas Newletter
Copelands 2011
Below is the active roster of our family, and the events of their year.
Allison, age 8. She is in the third grade at Snyder Park. Allison remains our resident artist, and is still spending much of her free time creating crafts and artwork. Her best friend Emma and her are now wearing matching "best friend" necklaces. She remains an active Brownie and is still doing art classes. Allison just took a big step (for her) towards adulthood: she got her ears pierced.
Tommy, age 10. He is classified as a fourth grader. His school time in 2011 has been notable by his fascination with a classmate named Madelyn, who also does not speak and is in a wheelchair. This summer meant a camp experience for the first time, at a special needs camp on the western edge of the county.. Tommy is in his fourth season bowling. Tommy also enjoyed our season passes at The Beach, where he was now tall enough to go on the big slides.
Tracey, age 12. Tracey is now in the seventh grade at Hayward Middle School, where he made the honor roll his first quarter. About two weeks before Christmas he fractured his collar bone. He currently is wearing a brace to straighten his shoulder and will not be paying winter soccer this year. In less traumatic news, he still enjoys playing video game, mostly with neighbor Isaiah;. Soccer meant a final season last spring for Springfield Thunder with his father as head coach, and then a fall season for the Dayton Dutch Lions, where by the end of the season he was playing the entire game as one of the team's two center defenders.
Megan , age 19, and as you can see with the enclosed picture, now an alumnus of Springfield High School. She is currently a first year student at Clark State University, pursuing her lifelong dream to be the female Indiana Jones, since training to be a Jedi is not offered. Megan remains a voracious reader, and is especially proud of her Star Wars books collection, which is about to hit triple digits.
Laura, age 41. She continues to be a fulltime mother. This especially means dealing firsthand with Tommy's regular and irregular appointments. With her kids, she most often reads with Megan and does crafts with Allison. She remains an avid sports fan, but the less said about her football teams the better, although the Ohio State basketball team is looking good again this season.
Scott, age 43. The St. Louis Cardinals won the World Series. After coaching Tracey in the spring, in the fall Scott dropped two years down and switched genders and coached a new team of U11 girls to a second place finish. The winter season has meant 8 am Saturday morning games. As a film buff, he was moved by The Tree of Life and The Descendants, and in the sleeper category recommends Win Win. Most of all, he's thankful The Muppets are back.
I have avoided politics and religion in the newsletter in past years, but here goes. I deal on a daily basis in my job at the Clark County Department of Jobs and Family Services with clients who are struggling to make ends meet. Instead of government addressing this problem, in Ohio we have a governor who would blame low funding on supposed greedy government employees like me while in Washington our "representatives" are more interested in partisan bickering than solving the problems of everyday people. The jobs disappeared for a lot of my clients in the past decade and the supposed safety net gets cut back every year. I don't have any answers here, but every day I have questions. In a country where so many people identify as Christian, I find it sad that help for the poor and sick, the genuinely needy, seems to be in short supply. In the days were we celebrate the birth of Christ, my Christmas wish is that more people try harder to truly live His words in their deeds, not just in empty promises.
Below is the active roster of our family, and the events of their year.
Allison, age 8. She is in the third grade at Snyder Park. Allison remains our resident artist, and is still spending much of her free time creating crafts and artwork. Her best friend Emma and her are now wearing matching "best friend" necklaces. She remains an active Brownie and is still doing art classes. Allison just took a big step (for her) towards adulthood: she got her ears pierced.
Tommy, age 10. He is classified as a fourth grader. His school time in 2011 has been notable by his fascination with a classmate named Madelyn, who also does not speak and is in a wheelchair. This summer meant a camp experience for the first time, at a special needs camp on the western edge of the county.. Tommy is in his fourth season bowling. Tommy also enjoyed our season passes at The Beach, where he was now tall enough to go on the big slides.
Tracey, age 12. Tracey is now in the seventh grade at Hayward Middle School, where he made the honor roll his first quarter. About two weeks before Christmas he fractured his collar bone. He currently is wearing a brace to straighten his shoulder and will not be paying winter soccer this year. In less traumatic news, he still enjoys playing video game, mostly with neighbor Isaiah;. Soccer meant a final season last spring for Springfield Thunder with his father as head coach, and then a fall season for the Dayton Dutch Lions, where by the end of the season he was playing the entire game as one of the team's two center defenders.
Megan , age 19, and as you can see with the enclosed picture, now an alumnus of Springfield High School. She is currently a first year student at Clark State University, pursuing her lifelong dream to be the female Indiana Jones, since training to be a Jedi is not offered. Megan remains a voracious reader, and is especially proud of her Star Wars books collection, which is about to hit triple digits.
Laura, age 41. She continues to be a fulltime mother. This especially means dealing firsthand with Tommy's regular and irregular appointments. With her kids, she most often reads with Megan and does crafts with Allison. She remains an avid sports fan, but the less said about her football teams the better, although the Ohio State basketball team is looking good again this season.
Scott, age 43. The St. Louis Cardinals won the World Series. After coaching Tracey in the spring, in the fall Scott dropped two years down and switched genders and coached a new team of U11 girls to a second place finish. The winter season has meant 8 am Saturday morning games. As a film buff, he was moved by The Tree of Life and The Descendants, and in the sleeper category recommends Win Win. Most of all, he's thankful The Muppets are back.
I have avoided politics and religion in the newsletter in past years, but here goes. I deal on a daily basis in my job at the Clark County Department of Jobs and Family Services with clients who are struggling to make ends meet. Instead of government addressing this problem, in Ohio we have a governor who would blame low funding on supposed greedy government employees like me while in Washington our "representatives" are more interested in partisan bickering than solving the problems of everyday people. The jobs disappeared for a lot of my clients in the past decade and the supposed safety net gets cut back every year. I don't have any answers here, but every day I have questions. In a country where so many people identify as Christian, I find it sad that help for the poor and sick, the genuinely needy, seems to be in short supply. In the days were we celebrate the birth of Christ, my Christmas wish is that more people try harder to truly live His words in their deeds, not just in empty promises.
Sunday, November 20, 2011
Religulous (2008)
I watch Real Time with Bill Maher every week. I find it the most enjoyable discussion shows on TV, and one of the main reasons to have HBO. One of things I enjoy about it is the discussion is on equal ground, and I have always felt the goal of the show is more to stimulate discussion on the issues rather than to promote an agenda. That trait is sorely missing in Religulous.
Instead, most of the running time of Religulous is spent finding as many extreme religious views as possible, to interview as many fools as possible, and in between the interviews address the camera to let the audience know how much better he is than the interview subjects.
The basic problem is all that Maher proves is not that religion is bad, because he never really approaches what draws so many people to religion until his wrap-up at the end of the film. What he has done is shown that extremism is bad, and comes across as extremist himself. His lack of tolerance for differing views is embarrassing.
I got a much better look at this subject a few years ago on Real Time. But Maher doesn't reference that. In that discussion, Ben Afflack made the compelling point that every major charity had its roots in religious beliefs. I've never heard Maher have a good counter argument to that, to people who genuinely live as Jesus taught. Why? It scres up his narrative.
But hey, if you want a one-sided rant for athiesm, this is it. But a solid documentary genuinely examining the pros and cons of religion? This ain't it.
Grade: D
Instead, most of the running time of Religulous is spent finding as many extreme religious views as possible, to interview as many fools as possible, and in between the interviews address the camera to let the audience know how much better he is than the interview subjects.
The basic problem is all that Maher proves is not that religion is bad, because he never really approaches what draws so many people to religion until his wrap-up at the end of the film. What he has done is shown that extremism is bad, and comes across as extremist himself. His lack of tolerance for differing views is embarrassing.
I got a much better look at this subject a few years ago on Real Time. But Maher doesn't reference that. In that discussion, Ben Afflack made the compelling point that every major charity had its roots in religious beliefs. I've never heard Maher have a good counter argument to that, to people who genuinely live as Jesus taught. Why? It scres up his narrative.
But hey, if you want a one-sided rant for athiesm, this is it. But a solid documentary genuinely examining the pros and cons of religion? This ain't it.
Grade: D
Sunday, October 2, 2011
summer 2011
This summer burnt me out on first run movies. For the first time since high school, I went three months without going to a single first run theater. Nothing got me interested enough. So after seeing Kung Fu Panda 2 on opening night, I did not see another first run movie until Contagion.
Wait, isn't this a movie blog? Three months without a movie? Well, no. I saw several movies in Columbus and Dayton in their classic film series. I did go to a second run theater for a couple of films. And then of course there is home video and TV.
So now I'm playing catch-up. Let the second run viewings begin. And reviews based off that.
Wait, isn't this a movie blog? Three months without a movie? Well, no. I saw several movies in Columbus and Dayton in their classic film series. I did go to a second run theater for a couple of films. And then of course there is home video and TV.
So now I'm playing catch-up. Let the second run viewings begin. And reviews based off that.
Monday, September 5, 2011
Recession 101
"Recession 101: Stop worrying about the economy. You're scaring the children." I passed by a billboard with this message going home from work every day this spring.
Maybe the children should be scared. I know I am.
Of course, if you have enough money to take out an ad like that, the economy probably doesn't scare you. Nice for you. So you can waste money attempting to get people to accept this lousy economy, and maybe not looking at how we got this way.
This year has been unique for me, because I'm in a group that has been targeted. I am a government employee, and I live in Ohio. And we've become one of the targets of the republican government in this state.
Because of course when the economy is used as an excuse, unfortunately enough people can be conned into supporting what is actually an assault on the working man. So instead of focusing on rich people getting fat off the work of others, and not paying their fair share, the focus is one someone like me, who makes less than $30,000 a year and works to try and improve people's lives.
Because apparently me receiving medical benefits is the drain on the economy.
And I'm not supposed to be worried?
Whenever it is pointed out that the rich are not paying what they used to in taxes, that person is accused of class warfare. Make no mistake, there is class warfare. The rich are attacking the poor with regularity. And it hard to believe anything other than the system has been broken and is helping the rich fleece the poor more and more and more.
Today is Labor Day, which means more to me than it has in past years. Usually it meant the end of summer. Or just a day off from work. But it means more to me this year.
Now it means to remember the working class, who are under siege like never before. And to not keep quiet when the working class is being attacked. And I won't/ I hope anyone reading doesn't either.
Happy Labor Day.
Maybe the children should be scared. I know I am.
Of course, if you have enough money to take out an ad like that, the economy probably doesn't scare you. Nice for you. So you can waste money attempting to get people to accept this lousy economy, and maybe not looking at how we got this way.
This year has been unique for me, because I'm in a group that has been targeted. I am a government employee, and I live in Ohio. And we've become one of the targets of the republican government in this state.
Because of course when the economy is used as an excuse, unfortunately enough people can be conned into supporting what is actually an assault on the working man. So instead of focusing on rich people getting fat off the work of others, and not paying their fair share, the focus is one someone like me, who makes less than $30,000 a year and works to try and improve people's lives.
Because apparently me receiving medical benefits is the drain on the economy.
And I'm not supposed to be worried?
Whenever it is pointed out that the rich are not paying what they used to in taxes, that person is accused of class warfare. Make no mistake, there is class warfare. The rich are attacking the poor with regularity. And it hard to believe anything other than the system has been broken and is helping the rich fleece the poor more and more and more.
Today is Labor Day, which means more to me than it has in past years. Usually it meant the end of summer. Or just a day off from work. But it means more to me this year.
Now it means to remember the working class, who are under siege like never before. And to not keep quiet when the working class is being attacked. And I won't/ I hope anyone reading doesn't either.
Happy Labor Day.
Tuesday, March 1, 2011
It wasn't THAT bad...
Sometimes I wonder if I'm seeing the same thing other are seeing. The Oscar show was an example.
Folks, the hosts were fine. If you put two actors in the position of hosting, they will only be as goos as their material. The writers did not have a good night.
I've read some people describe the shore as the worst ever. Did they not see Rob Lowe sing with Snow White? In the past, there used to be a couple of bloated, boring preduction numbers almost every year. Those days, thankfully, have passed.
We were spoiled two years ago, when the show was flat out amazing. Last year was a sizable step backwards, but I thought this year was better. The acceptance speeches were allowed to breathe more than past years, and most were fun.
And while James Franco seemed to me to be, uh, a bit medicated, I'd love to see Anne Hathaway with a better partner (Hugh Jakcman would be fine). Of, as in 1986, announce a comedian as a cohost, have him do a monolgue, and let the other hosts take over. (In 1986, Paul Hogan gave one of favorite openings ever, and then disappeared.)
Besides, some of the complaints are just unfair. The nominated songs weren't that great. Well no kidding. But that's not the show's fault. There were few surprises. Oscars are not supposed to surprise, they are supposed to award the best. And there have been much worse years for that.
Worst ever? Not hardly. I thought it was just fine. There have been better. But there have been much, much worse.
Folks, the hosts were fine. If you put two actors in the position of hosting, they will only be as goos as their material. The writers did not have a good night.
I've read some people describe the shore as the worst ever. Did they not see Rob Lowe sing with Snow White? In the past, there used to be a couple of bloated, boring preduction numbers almost every year. Those days, thankfully, have passed.
We were spoiled two years ago, when the show was flat out amazing. Last year was a sizable step backwards, but I thought this year was better. The acceptance speeches were allowed to breathe more than past years, and most were fun.
And while James Franco seemed to me to be, uh, a bit medicated, I'd love to see Anne Hathaway with a better partner (Hugh Jakcman would be fine). Of, as in 1986, announce a comedian as a cohost, have him do a monolgue, and let the other hosts take over. (In 1986, Paul Hogan gave one of favorite openings ever, and then disappeared.)
Besides, some of the complaints are just unfair. The nominated songs weren't that great. Well no kidding. But that's not the show's fault. There were few surprises. Oscars are not supposed to surprise, they are supposed to award the best. And there have been much worse years for that.
Worst ever? Not hardly. I thought it was just fine. There have been better. But there have been much, much worse.
Sunday, February 27, 2011
My best picture ballot
When voters vote for best picture, they actually don't just vote, they rank their favorites. If I were a voter, this would be my ranking.
1. Inception
2. The Social Network
3, Black Swan
4. The Fighter
5. The Kids Are All Right
6. True Grit
7. The King's Speech
8. Toy Story 3
9. Winter's Bone
10. 127 Hours
As for the top five, they were all in my ten best list, and the explanations can be found on my list.
I had True Grit and The King's Speech, they were both in my 11-20 list, which is not ranked. I rank True Grit slightly higher, which I found more emotinally satisfying. I respect The King's Speech, a very well made movie, but a bit emotionally distant for my taste.
As for Toy Story 3, it was the first Pixar film where I felt the gears moving a bit. But the characters shine through. It was one of the four or five films I knocked out of my final 20 in my final debate with myself over what would be in my final 20.
As for the two not in the debate, Winter's Bone is a good film, but with the typical rough edges of low budget filmmaking. As is normal for the Oscars, when one element is truly outstanding, the film itself tends to be overrated. Jennifer Lawrence is outstanding in the lead, and deserves her Best Actress nomination. The film is very good, but I cannot ascribe greatness.
And I still reccommend my lowest ranked film, 127 Hours. Once again, one great element: James Franco's performance. The film is basically a one man show, but the reasons why I should care are missing, and for me the film paled to another one man show, Buried, which I thought was more intense and more important, even though it is fiction.
1. Inception
2. The Social Network
3, Black Swan
4. The Fighter
5. The Kids Are All Right
6. True Grit
7. The King's Speech
8. Toy Story 3
9. Winter's Bone
10. 127 Hours
As for the top five, they were all in my ten best list, and the explanations can be found on my list.
I had True Grit and The King's Speech, they were both in my 11-20 list, which is not ranked. I rank True Grit slightly higher, which I found more emotinally satisfying. I respect The King's Speech, a very well made movie, but a bit emotionally distant for my taste.
As for Toy Story 3, it was the first Pixar film where I felt the gears moving a bit. But the characters shine through. It was one of the four or five films I knocked out of my final 20 in my final debate with myself over what would be in my final 20.
As for the two not in the debate, Winter's Bone is a good film, but with the typical rough edges of low budget filmmaking. As is normal for the Oscars, when one element is truly outstanding, the film itself tends to be overrated. Jennifer Lawrence is outstanding in the lead, and deserves her Best Actress nomination. The film is very good, but I cannot ascribe greatness.
And I still reccommend my lowest ranked film, 127 Hours. Once again, one great element: James Franco's performance. The film is basically a one man show, but the reasons why I should care are missing, and for me the film paled to another one man show, Buried, which I thought was more intense and more important, even though it is fiction.
Oscar nomination predictions and votes
I've already posted my analysis of the three shorts races, with mini reviews of all of them as I have seen all of the nominated shorts this year. I've done the same for animated feature and documentary feature. Here's predictions and opinions for the feature nominations:
PICTURE
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
127 Hours
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone
With True Grit as a dark horse, I think this is mostly between The Social Network and The King's Speech. Usually when one film takes an edgy approach and one a more traditional approach, the traditional approach wins. For example, Forrest Gump beating Pulp Fiction, or Dances with Wolves beating Goodfellas. Both contenders are well made, but I'll take the traditional approach: The King's Speech.
My vote: Inception. It topped my end of the year list, and I haven't changed my mind.
ACTOR
Javier Bardem (Biutiful)
Jeff Bridges (True Grit)
Jesse Eisenberg (The Social Network)
Colin Firth (The King's Speech)
James Franco (127 Hours)
Colin Firth has been the frontrunner all season. That remains unchanged. He'll win.
My vote: Eisenberg. It's hard to make a character standoffish and intriguing at the same time, but he did it.
ACTRESS
Annette Bening (The Kids Are All Right)
Nicole Kidman (Rabbit Hole)
Jennifer Lawrence (Winter's Bone)
Natalie Portman (Black Swan)
Michelle Williams (Blue Valentine)
Natalie Portman has been the frontrunner all season. That remains unchanged. She'll win.
My vote: Portman. She does heavy emotion, complicated dancing, and keeps us involved through some rather outlandish plot twists. The best acting this year in any category.
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Christian Bale (The Fighter)
John Hawkes (Winter's Bone)
Jeremy Renner (The Town)
Mark Ruffalo (The Kids Are All Right)
Geoffrey Rush (The King's Speech)
Christian Bale has been the frontrunner all season. That remains unchanged. He'll win.
My vote: I have a lot of affection for Ruffalo's live-in performance, but I cannot deny the overall impressiveness of Bale. So I vote for Bale.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams (The Fighter)
Helena Bonham Carter (The King's Speech)
Melissa Leo (The Fighter)
Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit)
Jacki Weaver (Animal Kingdom)
Melissa Leo has been the frontrunner all season. That remains unchanged. But... she has waged a personal campaign in the Hollywood papers which has turned some people off, and I think her lead has slipped. I can literally come up with a scenario where any of the five could win. I think the toughest contender is Steinfeld, who absolutely carries a film which received 10 nominations. I think this is close, but I think Leo will still pull out a close win.
My choice: Steinfeld. She should have been up for lead , as she carries the film, but as for the question of which performance I like the best of these five, it is her.
ART DIRECTION
Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, PArt 1
Inception
The King's Speech
True Grit
Alice in Wonderful are the most eye popping, but my bet is the film which had a hotel set that had to spin to create the illusion of being on the ceiling. That would be Inception.
My choise: Inception, for that reason.
CINEMATOGRAPHY
Black Swan
Inception
The King's Speech
The Social Network
True Grit
This year's ridiculously overdue winner is Roger Deakins, who should have wone previously. Multiple times. He shot True Grit.
My choise: Black Swan. Matthew Libatique put me in the main character's head, and pulled off some logistical nightmares with all those reflections.
COSTUMES
Alice in Wonderland
I Am Love
The King's Speech
The Tempest
True Grit
Sandy Powell (The Tempest) and Colleen Atwood (Alice in Wonderland) are generally the two most respected in the business, but more people saw Atwood's work. So I'm going with Alice.
My choice: vacant. I have not seen I am Love or The Tempest, and I usually love Powell's work. Of the three I have seen, I would be fine with any of the three.
DIRECTOR
Darren Aronofsky (Black Swan)
David O Russell (The Fighter)
Tom Hooper (The King's Speech)
Darren Fincher (The Social Network)
Joel and Ethan Coen (True Grit)
Hoper won the Director's Guild award. But that had a lot of TV directors voting, and Hooper (John Adams) has a TV background. The movie director, and the former nominee who hasn't won yet, is Fincher, and somehow he made computer nerds visually arresting with great acting. I go with Fincher.
My choice: Fincher. He;s due, and this is his best film to date.
EDITING
Black Swan
The Fighter
The King's Speech
127 Hours
The Social Network
When in doubt, take the Best Picture winner in this category. I'm very unsure, but will take The King's Speech.
My choice: Inception. And since that isn't nominated, The Social Network, for going back and forth in time effortlessly.
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Biutiful
Dogtooth
In a Better World
Incendies
Outside the Law
The voters have to watch all five films, so Biutiful's supposedly front-runner status I believe is inaccurate. I believe In a Better World has the approach the voters will endorse.
My choice: vacant. I haven't seen any of them.
MAKEUP
Barney's Version
The Way Back
The Wolfman
This category most years should be most makeup. This year, that's The Wolfman.
My choice: I haven't seen any of them.
MUSIC: ORIGINAL SCORE
How to Train Your Dragon
Inception
The King's Speech
127 Hours
The Social Network
Remember this category is voted by the whole academy. Usually when a non-traditional composer gets nominated, he can win. That would be Trent Reznor (and Atticus Ross)for The Social Network.
My choice: I love The Social Network, but love Hans Zimmer's work for Inception anymore. The last five minutes of the movie is my favorite piece of music this year.
MUSIC: ORIGINAL SONG
"Coming Home" (Country Strong)
"I See The Light" (Tangled)
"If I Rise" (127 Hours)
"We Belong Together" (Toy Story 3)
The last time the list was so underwhelming, the voters figured they would just vote for Randy Newman. I guessing they do it again, for "We Belong Together".
My choice: The only song of the four I remembered was "I See The Light", used during Tangled's best scene, when the lanterns are lit.
SOUND EDITING
Inception
Toy STory 3
Tron: Legacy
True Grit
Unstoppable
The sound design that stunned the most this year was Inception.
My choise: The sound design that stunned the most this year was Inception.
SOUND MIXING
Inception
The King's Speech
Salt
The Social Netwrok
True Grit
Closer than the other sound race, but I think Inception still impresses.
My choice: Inception still impresses.
VISUAL EFFECTS
Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 1
Hereafter
Inception
Iron Man 2
Lots of amazing subtle effects, and a couple of jaw dropping ones, make Inception the choice.
My choice: Inception. Easiest choice on the entire list.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Another Year
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
A great backstory for the writer, coupled with great dialogue, makes The King's Speech the easy prediction.
My Choise: For creating a dream within a dream within a dream, and getting it to make sense, Inception is an easy choise for me.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
127 Hours
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone
Aaron Sorkin (The Social Network) has been the frontrunner all season. That remains unchanged. He'll win.
My choise: Sorkin created my favorite TV show of all time, Sports Night. Of course I am rooting for him.
PICTURE
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
127 Hours
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone
With True Grit as a dark horse, I think this is mostly between The Social Network and The King's Speech. Usually when one film takes an edgy approach and one a more traditional approach, the traditional approach wins. For example, Forrest Gump beating Pulp Fiction, or Dances with Wolves beating Goodfellas. Both contenders are well made, but I'll take the traditional approach: The King's Speech.
My vote: Inception. It topped my end of the year list, and I haven't changed my mind.
ACTOR
Javier Bardem (Biutiful)
Jeff Bridges (True Grit)
Jesse Eisenberg (The Social Network)
Colin Firth (The King's Speech)
James Franco (127 Hours)
Colin Firth has been the frontrunner all season. That remains unchanged. He'll win.
My vote: Eisenberg. It's hard to make a character standoffish and intriguing at the same time, but he did it.
ACTRESS
Annette Bening (The Kids Are All Right)
Nicole Kidman (Rabbit Hole)
Jennifer Lawrence (Winter's Bone)
Natalie Portman (Black Swan)
Michelle Williams (Blue Valentine)
Natalie Portman has been the frontrunner all season. That remains unchanged. She'll win.
My vote: Portman. She does heavy emotion, complicated dancing, and keeps us involved through some rather outlandish plot twists. The best acting this year in any category.
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Christian Bale (The Fighter)
John Hawkes (Winter's Bone)
Jeremy Renner (The Town)
Mark Ruffalo (The Kids Are All Right)
Geoffrey Rush (The King's Speech)
Christian Bale has been the frontrunner all season. That remains unchanged. He'll win.
My vote: I have a lot of affection for Ruffalo's live-in performance, but I cannot deny the overall impressiveness of Bale. So I vote for Bale.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams (The Fighter)
Helena Bonham Carter (The King's Speech)
Melissa Leo (The Fighter)
Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit)
Jacki Weaver (Animal Kingdom)
Melissa Leo has been the frontrunner all season. That remains unchanged. But... she has waged a personal campaign in the Hollywood papers which has turned some people off, and I think her lead has slipped. I can literally come up with a scenario where any of the five could win. I think the toughest contender is Steinfeld, who absolutely carries a film which received 10 nominations. I think this is close, but I think Leo will still pull out a close win.
My choice: Steinfeld. She should have been up for lead , as she carries the film, but as for the question of which performance I like the best of these five, it is her.
ART DIRECTION
Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, PArt 1
Inception
The King's Speech
True Grit
Alice in Wonderful are the most eye popping, but my bet is the film which had a hotel set that had to spin to create the illusion of being on the ceiling. That would be Inception.
My choise: Inception, for that reason.
CINEMATOGRAPHY
Black Swan
Inception
The King's Speech
The Social Network
True Grit
This year's ridiculously overdue winner is Roger Deakins, who should have wone previously. Multiple times. He shot True Grit.
My choise: Black Swan. Matthew Libatique put me in the main character's head, and pulled off some logistical nightmares with all those reflections.
COSTUMES
Alice in Wonderland
I Am Love
The King's Speech
The Tempest
True Grit
Sandy Powell (The Tempest) and Colleen Atwood (Alice in Wonderland) are generally the two most respected in the business, but more people saw Atwood's work. So I'm going with Alice.
My choice: vacant. I have not seen I am Love or The Tempest, and I usually love Powell's work. Of the three I have seen, I would be fine with any of the three.
DIRECTOR
Darren Aronofsky (Black Swan)
David O Russell (The Fighter)
Tom Hooper (The King's Speech)
Darren Fincher (The Social Network)
Joel and Ethan Coen (True Grit)
Hoper won the Director's Guild award. But that had a lot of TV directors voting, and Hooper (John Adams) has a TV background. The movie director, and the former nominee who hasn't won yet, is Fincher, and somehow he made computer nerds visually arresting with great acting. I go with Fincher.
My choice: Fincher. He;s due, and this is his best film to date.
EDITING
Black Swan
The Fighter
The King's Speech
127 Hours
The Social Network
When in doubt, take the Best Picture winner in this category. I'm very unsure, but will take The King's Speech.
My choice: Inception. And since that isn't nominated, The Social Network, for going back and forth in time effortlessly.
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Biutiful
Dogtooth
In a Better World
Incendies
Outside the Law
The voters have to watch all five films, so Biutiful's supposedly front-runner status I believe is inaccurate. I believe In a Better World has the approach the voters will endorse.
My choice: vacant. I haven't seen any of them.
MAKEUP
Barney's Version
The Way Back
The Wolfman
This category most years should be most makeup. This year, that's The Wolfman.
My choice: I haven't seen any of them.
MUSIC: ORIGINAL SCORE
How to Train Your Dragon
Inception
The King's Speech
127 Hours
The Social Network
Remember this category is voted by the whole academy. Usually when a non-traditional composer gets nominated, he can win. That would be Trent Reznor (and Atticus Ross)for The Social Network.
My choice: I love The Social Network, but love Hans Zimmer's work for Inception anymore. The last five minutes of the movie is my favorite piece of music this year.
MUSIC: ORIGINAL SONG
"Coming Home" (Country Strong)
"I See The Light" (Tangled)
"If I Rise" (127 Hours)
"We Belong Together" (Toy Story 3)
The last time the list was so underwhelming, the voters figured they would just vote for Randy Newman. I guessing they do it again, for "We Belong Together".
My choice: The only song of the four I remembered was "I See The Light", used during Tangled's best scene, when the lanterns are lit.
SOUND EDITING
Inception
Toy STory 3
Tron: Legacy
True Grit
Unstoppable
The sound design that stunned the most this year was Inception.
My choise: The sound design that stunned the most this year was Inception.
SOUND MIXING
Inception
The King's Speech
Salt
The Social Netwrok
True Grit
Closer than the other sound race, but I think Inception still impresses.
My choice: Inception still impresses.
VISUAL EFFECTS
Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 1
Hereafter
Inception
Iron Man 2
Lots of amazing subtle effects, and a couple of jaw dropping ones, make Inception the choice.
My choice: Inception. Easiest choice on the entire list.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Another Year
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
A great backstory for the writer, coupled with great dialogue, makes The King's Speech the easy prediction.
My Choise: For creating a dream within a dream within a dream, and getting it to make sense, Inception is an easy choise for me.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
127 Hours
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone
Aaron Sorkin (The Social Network) has been the frontrunner all season. That remains unchanged. He'll win.
My choise: Sorkin created my favorite TV show of all time, Sports Night. Of course I am rooting for him.
Oscar nominated features: Animated
I've seen all these are well. So I'm not repeating the introduction again.
How to Train Your Dragon
A charming film with wonderful sequences of the main character training and caring for an injured dragon, great flight sequences, and supporting characters that blended together too much for me. Grade A-
The Illusionist
A charming, beautifully drawn film which bored the hell out of me. Pretty much the same reaction I had to The Triplets of Bellvue. Great looking film, but the director doesn't understand plot and pacing. The Minions got screwed. Grade C
Toy Story 3
I thought the story telling was a little forced, but Dragon's big flaw is Toy Story's big strength: well drawn characters. And even lower level Pixar is better than almost everyone else.
Oscar prediction: Never bet against Pixar. Toy Story 3 in a walk.
My choice: If you don't know who the Minions are, see Despicable Me stat. But since they aren't nominated, go with Pixar.
How to Train Your Dragon
A charming film with wonderful sequences of the main character training and caring for an injured dragon, great flight sequences, and supporting characters that blended together too much for me. Grade A-
The Illusionist
A charming, beautifully drawn film which bored the hell out of me. Pretty much the same reaction I had to The Triplets of Bellvue. Great looking film, but the director doesn't understand plot and pacing. The Minions got screwed. Grade C
Toy Story 3
I thought the story telling was a little forced, but Dragon's big flaw is Toy Story's big strength: well drawn characters. And even lower level Pixar is better than almost everyone else.
Oscar prediction: Never bet against Pixar. Toy Story 3 in a walk.
My choice: If you don't know who the Minions are, see Despicable Me stat. But since they aren't nominated, go with Pixar.
Saturday, February 26, 2011
Oscar nominated features: Documentary
I have seen all the films in this category, so I'll offer short reviews of each followed by my prediction in the category.
Exit Through the Gift Shop
Well gee, how to describe this one? It's about guerrilla street art, a topic I don't care about. But as Roger Ebert has said, a film is not what it is about, but how it is about it. And this film's goofball approach, as the subject because the filmmaker and the filmmaker becomes the subject, is tremendously entertaining. What is real and what is not? Don't really know, which is part of the fun. But the spirit of guerrilla art is captured. Grade: A
Gasland
And boy is this film getting the full court press from the natural gas industry. The director sets out to learn more about gas drilling after an offer to pay him to drill on this family's property. The more he talks to people, the more worried he gets. The film is technically a bit amateurish, but that gives it an appeal, as the anger of the film isn't as much at the practice, but the fact that the industry is not even regulated by the US government. Grade: A-
Inside Job
Director Charles Ferguson approached as a journalist, trying to understand how the financial crisis of 2008 occurred and how we could avoid repeating the mistakes. His breakdown is enraging. And the lessons don't seem to have been learned. This is the essential document of how greed run amok is destroying our economy. Grade: A+
Restrepo
This look at a year in the life of a group of soldiers in Afganistan, focusing on the establishment of Outpost Restrepo, named for a comrade who was killed. The film does a good job of getting the feel of the service, but fails to do a good job of getting a sense of who these soldiers are as people. And that failure makes this the weekest of the nominees. But as a document of what the Afganistan fighting has been like, the film is invaluable. Grade: B+
Wasteland
A second documetary involving art, a second movie I really didn't care to see, and a second movie which was a pleasant surprise. This film documents an artist using materials from Rio's primary garbage dump to make art. He meets the pickers, who sort through the trash and get recyclable materials, and becomes wrapped up in their plight. The way several of the pickers, who at the beginning seem to have lost hope and how their outlook on life is changed, is truly inspiring. Grade: A
Oscar chances: I've seen a lot of predictors saying Exit Through the Gift Shop. I think some of them forget that the documentary branch chooses the winner, and when the top two contenders include a rule breaker and a rule follower, the rule breaker ususally doesn't win. And Exit Through the Gift Shop is definitely a rule breaker. Charles Ferguson lost last time he was nominated with No End in Sight, his excellent look at the causes of the Iraq War. Inside Job is even better, and he's due. I think Inside Job wins.
My choice: Inside Job.
Exit Through the Gift Shop
Well gee, how to describe this one? It's about guerrilla street art, a topic I don't care about. But as Roger Ebert has said, a film is not what it is about, but how it is about it. And this film's goofball approach, as the subject because the filmmaker and the filmmaker becomes the subject, is tremendously entertaining. What is real and what is not? Don't really know, which is part of the fun. But the spirit of guerrilla art is captured. Grade: A
Gasland
And boy is this film getting the full court press from the natural gas industry. The director sets out to learn more about gas drilling after an offer to pay him to drill on this family's property. The more he talks to people, the more worried he gets. The film is technically a bit amateurish, but that gives it an appeal, as the anger of the film isn't as much at the practice, but the fact that the industry is not even regulated by the US government. Grade: A-
Inside Job
Director Charles Ferguson approached as a journalist, trying to understand how the financial crisis of 2008 occurred and how we could avoid repeating the mistakes. His breakdown is enraging. And the lessons don't seem to have been learned. This is the essential document of how greed run amok is destroying our economy. Grade: A+
Restrepo
This look at a year in the life of a group of soldiers in Afganistan, focusing on the establishment of Outpost Restrepo, named for a comrade who was killed. The film does a good job of getting the feel of the service, but fails to do a good job of getting a sense of who these soldiers are as people. And that failure makes this the weekest of the nominees. But as a document of what the Afganistan fighting has been like, the film is invaluable. Grade: B+
Wasteland
A second documetary involving art, a second movie I really didn't care to see, and a second movie which was a pleasant surprise. This film documents an artist using materials from Rio's primary garbage dump to make art. He meets the pickers, who sort through the trash and get recyclable materials, and becomes wrapped up in their plight. The way several of the pickers, who at the beginning seem to have lost hope and how their outlook on life is changed, is truly inspiring. Grade: A
Oscar chances: I've seen a lot of predictors saying Exit Through the Gift Shop. I think some of them forget that the documentary branch chooses the winner, and when the top two contenders include a rule breaker and a rule follower, the rule breaker ususally doesn't win. And Exit Through the Gift Shop is definitely a rule breaker. Charles Ferguson lost last time he was nominated with No End in Sight, his excellent look at the causes of the Iraq War. Inside Job is even better, and he's due. I think Inside Job wins.
My choice: Inside Job.
Thursday, February 24, 2011
Oscar nominated shorts: Animated
I have seen all the films in this category, so I'll offer short reviews of each followed by my prediction in the category.
Day & Night
This is the short seen more than all the rest combined, as this is the short which played in front of Toy Story 3. Pixar strikes again. It's a rare combination of inventive animation and inspired storytelling, with a logic that is hard to describe but very entertaining. Grade: A+
The Gruffalo
The longest short at about half an hour, this is a straight forward telling of a children's book, with great voice work. Helena Bonham Carter voices the mother squirrel telling the story. It's cute, but not exactly groundbreaking. Grade A-
Let's Pollute
A very funny contrarian short, advising people of all the ways they can wreck the atmosphere. The animation is king of standard, though. Grade: A-
The Lost Thing
A quirky Australian short about a boy who finds a creature who doesn't fit in and tries to find a place where it does. Lots of great details in the animation, I want to see this again to catch it all (and maybe freeze some frames) A true delight. Grade: A
Madagascar, carnet de voyage
Probably the most inventive use of animation, which many switching styles, but the story is a standard travelogue. I'm glad I saw it for the animation, but eligible short The Cow who Wanted to Be a Hamburger would have been a more deserving nominee. Grade: B+
Oscar chances: It's hard to bet against Pixar. So I won't. I see the race going to Night & Day. I would also believe it is the best of the five nominees.
Day & Night
This is the short seen more than all the rest combined, as this is the short which played in front of Toy Story 3. Pixar strikes again. It's a rare combination of inventive animation and inspired storytelling, with a logic that is hard to describe but very entertaining. Grade: A+
The Gruffalo
The longest short at about half an hour, this is a straight forward telling of a children's book, with great voice work. Helena Bonham Carter voices the mother squirrel telling the story. It's cute, but not exactly groundbreaking. Grade A-
Let's Pollute
A very funny contrarian short, advising people of all the ways they can wreck the atmosphere. The animation is king of standard, though. Grade: A-
The Lost Thing
A quirky Australian short about a boy who finds a creature who doesn't fit in and tries to find a place where it does. Lots of great details in the animation, I want to see this again to catch it all (and maybe freeze some frames) A true delight. Grade: A
Madagascar, carnet de voyage
Probably the most inventive use of animation, which many switching styles, but the story is a standard travelogue. I'm glad I saw it for the animation, but eligible short The Cow who Wanted to Be a Hamburger would have been a more deserving nominee. Grade: B+
Oscar chances: It's hard to bet against Pixar. So I won't. I see the race going to Night & Day. I would also believe it is the best of the five nominees.
Oscar nominated shorts: Live Action
I have seen all the films in this category, so I'll offer short reviews of each followed by my prediction in the category.
The Confession
A perfect example of a film with a promising beginning, and then runs off the rails. The child at the center of the film is uncomfortable with confession because he thinks he has nothing to confess. This leads to, uh, people dying. Is the point that confession causes children to sin? Because that's what it felt like, even though I don't think it was point. I sure hope not. Grade: D+
The Crush
A young boy, with a crush on his teacher, becomes insanely jealous when he finds out the teacher has just become engaged. He sets out to battle the new fiance for the teacher's hand. Without revealing what happens, let me say I thought the film had painted itself in a corner, but the resolution was genuinely amusing. Grade: A=
God of Love
A crooner who throws darts (bullseyes) while he sings desires his drummer, while she in turn desires the guitar player, while the guitar player decline her hints because of his friendship with the crooner. Then the crooner is delivered some magical darts which cause the target to fall in love for six hours. That's just the set-up, but the cliche "hilarity ensues" actually correctly applies here. Grade: A
Na Wewe
The film's heart is in the right place, really it is, but its message about Rwanda, and the futility of killing those based only by their tribe, is a bit heavy handed, not to mention about 15 years late. Grade: C+
Wish 143
In which a teenage boy dying of cancer gives his dying wish: to have sex. Behind that premise is the ultimate discovery that there is a girl he wants but has lost. The film's strength is in the way it recognizes the pain of a child cancer ward but the dark humor of the character. I especially liked the portrayal of the priest on the ward, the only person who seems to understand the teen's loneliness. Grade A+
Oscar race: Sometimes in a race a film stands out partially because it is different. God of Love is that film. It is genuinely witty and inventive, and I believe will grab the voters' attention. Though I would vote for Wsh 143.
The Confession
A perfect example of a film with a promising beginning, and then runs off the rails. The child at the center of the film is uncomfortable with confession because he thinks he has nothing to confess. This leads to, uh, people dying. Is the point that confession causes children to sin? Because that's what it felt like, even though I don't think it was point. I sure hope not. Grade: D+
The Crush
A young boy, with a crush on his teacher, becomes insanely jealous when he finds out the teacher has just become engaged. He sets out to battle the new fiance for the teacher's hand. Without revealing what happens, let me say I thought the film had painted itself in a corner, but the resolution was genuinely amusing. Grade: A=
God of Love
A crooner who throws darts (bullseyes) while he sings desires his drummer, while she in turn desires the guitar player, while the guitar player decline her hints because of his friendship with the crooner. Then the crooner is delivered some magical darts which cause the target to fall in love for six hours. That's just the set-up, but the cliche "hilarity ensues" actually correctly applies here. Grade: A
Na Wewe
The film's heart is in the right place, really it is, but its message about Rwanda, and the futility of killing those based only by their tribe, is a bit heavy handed, not to mention about 15 years late. Grade: C+
Wish 143
In which a teenage boy dying of cancer gives his dying wish: to have sex. Behind that premise is the ultimate discovery that there is a girl he wants but has lost. The film's strength is in the way it recognizes the pain of a child cancer ward but the dark humor of the character. I especially liked the portrayal of the priest on the ward, the only person who seems to understand the teen's loneliness. Grade A+
Oscar race: Sometimes in a race a film stands out partially because it is different. God of Love is that film. It is genuinely witty and inventive, and I believe will grab the voters' attention. Though I would vote for Wsh 143.
Oscar nominated shorts: Documentary
I have seen all the films in this category, so I'll offer short reviews of each followed by my prediction in the category.
Killing in the Name
The main focus of this documentary is a Moslem man whose wedding reception was at a hotel that was a target of a suicide bomber. The bomg killed his father, new father-in-law, and 25 other guests at the reception. He has devoted his life to convincing Moslems that terrorism is wrong. The film gains access to a terrorist recruiter, a father of a suicide bomber, and a school where two suicide bombers are celebrated. Some amazing and emotional footage was gathered with impressive access, with this man is its center. A very deserving nominee. Grade: A+
Poster Girl
This is basically a biography of a young woman who while in Iraq was photographed with two other female soldiers which became a recruiting poster for the US Army. Today, she is an emotional mess. Unfortunately, the film is a mess. What might have made a portrait of Post Traumatic Stress Syndrome does not have focus, probably because the filmmaker got too close to the subject. Several graphic flashbacks of Iraq seem to rub our noses in the violene, but for what reason? The Iraq War was bad? That point has been made better by other documentaries. Heck, the Matt Damon film Green Zone did a better job. Grade: C-
Strangers No More
An emotional portrait of a school in Israel which specializes in welcoming children of all nationalities smartly focuses on a few students and their progress over one year. It is heartwarming, it is entertaining, but one question is not even attempted by this film which leaves it just short of the universal message it seems to be striving for: How is this school put together and how could its success be repeated in other schools? Still, what is in the film is always gripping. Grade: A
Sun Come Up
This is a portarit of a tribe in the South Pacific which has to leave its island home because the sea is rising, and its search for a new home. By smartly spending the first few minutes profiling the tribe and its home before detailing the search, we get to know these people and are invested in the struggle. The message about the effects of global warming smartly stays in the background, and the film is all the better for it. Grade: A+
The Warriors of Qiugang
This is a frustrating film, and not because of its subject matter, a Chinese town fighting pollution from a chemical company. The local farmer who heads the fight is as intiguing a person as in any of these shorts. But after a gripping half hour of the fight, a year is then skipped, and the ending is rushed. This has all the feel of a project which lost its funding, and that's too bad, because it results in a film which feels like a three act play where only the first act was filmed. Grade: B
As for the Oscar race, this category frequently is decided as much because of the subject matter as for the execution. So while I personally would vote for Sun Comes Up, I am predicting the other A+ film in my book, Killing in the Name Of, which has current relevance and is expertly made. Although if the voters vote for heartwarming, which has been known to happen, then Strangers No More definitely could pull the upset.
Killing in the Name
The main focus of this documentary is a Moslem man whose wedding reception was at a hotel that was a target of a suicide bomber. The bomg killed his father, new father-in-law, and 25 other guests at the reception. He has devoted his life to convincing Moslems that terrorism is wrong. The film gains access to a terrorist recruiter, a father of a suicide bomber, and a school where two suicide bombers are celebrated. Some amazing and emotional footage was gathered with impressive access, with this man is its center. A very deserving nominee. Grade: A+
Poster Girl
This is basically a biography of a young woman who while in Iraq was photographed with two other female soldiers which became a recruiting poster for the US Army. Today, she is an emotional mess. Unfortunately, the film is a mess. What might have made a portrait of Post Traumatic Stress Syndrome does not have focus, probably because the filmmaker got too close to the subject. Several graphic flashbacks of Iraq seem to rub our noses in the violene, but for what reason? The Iraq War was bad? That point has been made better by other documentaries. Heck, the Matt Damon film Green Zone did a better job. Grade: C-
Strangers No More
An emotional portrait of a school in Israel which specializes in welcoming children of all nationalities smartly focuses on a few students and their progress over one year. It is heartwarming, it is entertaining, but one question is not even attempted by this film which leaves it just short of the universal message it seems to be striving for: How is this school put together and how could its success be repeated in other schools? Still, what is in the film is always gripping. Grade: A
Sun Come Up
This is a portarit of a tribe in the South Pacific which has to leave its island home because the sea is rising, and its search for a new home. By smartly spending the first few minutes profiling the tribe and its home before detailing the search, we get to know these people and are invested in the struggle. The message about the effects of global warming smartly stays in the background, and the film is all the better for it. Grade: A+
The Warriors of Qiugang
This is a frustrating film, and not because of its subject matter, a Chinese town fighting pollution from a chemical company. The local farmer who heads the fight is as intiguing a person as in any of these shorts. But after a gripping half hour of the fight, a year is then skipped, and the ending is rushed. This has all the feel of a project which lost its funding, and that's too bad, because it results in a film which feels like a three act play where only the first act was filmed. Grade: B
As for the Oscar race, this category frequently is decided as much because of the subject matter as for the execution. So while I personally would vote for Sun Comes Up, I am predicting the other A+ film in my book, Killing in the Name Of, which has current relevance and is expertly made. Although if the voters vote for heartwarming, which has been known to happen, then Strangers No More definitely could pull the upset.
Saturday, February 12, 2011
Top Ten of 2010: the 10 films
10. The Kids Are All Right. If this were just a tract showing that family values includes families headed by lesbians too, tis wouldn't be notable. But all five of the primary ensemble nail the performaces, and the dialogue is so point perfect (watch the kids squirm when their moms tell how they met) and surprisingly funny so that a political statment becomes more of a human statement,
9, Exit Through the Gift Shop. Easily the most entertaining documentary of the last several years, this look at street art (a subject I have no general interest in) is given life and an energy I never imagined. Then it turns at the halfway point and becomes something else entirely, becoming, I think, an indictment of those who want to make corporate and mainstream an art form that is subversive in its nature. But remaining entertaining throughout.
8. Flipped. The film that slipped through the cracks this year. Director Rob Reiner brought us a fond look at a childhood crush through the alternating point of view of the crusher and the crushee. Madeline Carroll's performance as the girl who has the crush embodies an eighth grader as few have before her.
7. The Fighter. Christian Bale and Michelle Leo are getting the most publicity for their performances in the movie. And they are great, as is Amy Adams. Bt the heart of this movie is Mark Wahlberg. His emotion at not quite being able to get to the level that deep down he believes he belongs gives life to everything else in the movie, as does shooting the film in the Massachusetts neighborhood where it actually happened.
6. Buried. Or Claustrophobia: The Movie. I had more of a physical reaction to this film than any this year. Set simply in a coffin, there's no way this can work at feature length. But it can. With Ryan Reynolds' career-best performance, and more adept camerwork than I thought possible, I felt like the walls of the theater were closing in on me. And for days afterword.
5. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo. Lisbeth Salander is one of the most interesting characters I've found in a long time, brought to life by a fierce performance by Noomi Rapace. The central mystery is an interesting, but I was even more fascinated by the developing relationship between the two investigators.
4. Black Swan. The tru mess with your mind film of the Christmas season, assembled as only a master as Darren Aronfsky could do it. And Natalie Portman gives the performance of the year.
3. Inside Job. Charles Ferguson shows he may be the best documentarian alive, as he explains how the financial crisis of 2008 was not only inevitable, but will happen again if things are not changed. If this didn't make your blood boil, you must be one of the bankers profiled.
2. The Social Network. Aaron Sorkin has been the best writer on television for the past decade, but this film not only captured the magic of his dialogue, but came with a visual and technical flourish you expect from David Fincher.
1. Inception. Nothing captured my imagination, nothing showed me things I've never seen before like Inception. Great visual wit, ingenous plotting, I'm still stunned six months later. Simply put, nothing captured me quite like a dream within a dream within a dream.
9, Exit Through the Gift Shop. Easily the most entertaining documentary of the last several years, this look at street art (a subject I have no general interest in) is given life and an energy I never imagined. Then it turns at the halfway point and becomes something else entirely, becoming, I think, an indictment of those who want to make corporate and mainstream an art form that is subversive in its nature. But remaining entertaining throughout.
8. Flipped. The film that slipped through the cracks this year. Director Rob Reiner brought us a fond look at a childhood crush through the alternating point of view of the crusher and the crushee. Madeline Carroll's performance as the girl who has the crush embodies an eighth grader as few have before her.
7. The Fighter. Christian Bale and Michelle Leo are getting the most publicity for their performances in the movie. And they are great, as is Amy Adams. Bt the heart of this movie is Mark Wahlberg. His emotion at not quite being able to get to the level that deep down he believes he belongs gives life to everything else in the movie, as does shooting the film in the Massachusetts neighborhood where it actually happened.
6. Buried. Or Claustrophobia: The Movie. I had more of a physical reaction to this film than any this year. Set simply in a coffin, there's no way this can work at feature length. But it can. With Ryan Reynolds' career-best performance, and more adept camerwork than I thought possible, I felt like the walls of the theater were closing in on me. And for days afterword.
5. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo. Lisbeth Salander is one of the most interesting characters I've found in a long time, brought to life by a fierce performance by Noomi Rapace. The central mystery is an interesting, but I was even more fascinated by the developing relationship between the two investigators.
4. Black Swan. The tru mess with your mind film of the Christmas season, assembled as only a master as Darren Aronfsky could do it. And Natalie Portman gives the performance of the year.
3. Inside Job. Charles Ferguson shows he may be the best documentarian alive, as he explains how the financial crisis of 2008 was not only inevitable, but will happen again if things are not changed. If this didn't make your blood boil, you must be one of the bankers profiled.
2. The Social Network. Aaron Sorkin has been the best writer on television for the past decade, but this film not only captured the magic of his dialogue, but came with a visual and technical flourish you expect from David Fincher.
1. Inception. Nothing captured my imagination, nothing showed me things I've never seen before like Inception. Great visual wit, ingenous plotting, I'm still stunned six months later. Simply put, nothing captured me quite like a dream within a dream within a dream.
Saturday, February 5, 2011
Top Ten of 2010: Runners-Up
As I sat down to sift through the films of the past year, I was shocked to find how many films I had really enjoyed. I had thought it was a bad year. But I look at what films did not make my top 20, and I was stunned by some that had not made it. A year ago, I had said Crazy Heart would make my top ten. It isn't in my 20. Neither is The Ghost Writer or Easy A, both of which I give high marks to. To say nothing of animation: I annually have animation high on my list, but Toy Story 3, How to Train Your Dragon, and The Secret of Kells ended up on the outside looking in.
A note about eligibility: The film are eligible in the period they play my area, west central Ohio. Two films I have seen of this writing, Blue Valentine and Rabbit Hole, did not play until 2011. They will be considered for next year's list. Same with Biutiful, Country Strong, and Somewhere. Meanwhile 2009 films that did not get here until 2009 are eligible for 2010, such as The White Ribbon, The Lovely Bones, The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus, and the afore-mentioned Crazy Heart. But I judged none of them as good as the 20 movies that follow.
Also, in the past, I have restricted myself to the Dayton-Springfield area for eligibility. I have decided to include Columbus in my eligibility period this year, as a surprising amount of films played there and did not get to Dayton. Included in that group are The Secret of Kells, Enter the Void, Red Riding, Waking Sleeping Beauty, and Buried. I'm not sure if The Tillman Story played Dayton, but it played Columbus, so it is also eligible.
Not eligible are movies made for television. I've seen HBO movies specifically make reviewers lists in the past. But if I allowed them, Temple Grandin would definitely made my list. As a father of an autistic child, I appreciated this look into the autistic mind that was like nothing I've ever seen. It would have ranked in the top ten if eligible.
Without further ado, the ten runners-up, in alphabetical order:
Best Worst Movie. Anyone who loves bad movies owes it to themselves to see this. No film has captured the allure of awesomely terrible films than this documentary of the rise and fall of Troll 2 years after its making. The funniest thing about the film is how most of the cast seems to know they made a disaster, while most of technical crew seems to think they made a masterpiece. (And yes, Troll 2 is as bad as advertised.)
The Girl that Kicked the Hornet's Nest. The conclusion of the Milennium trilogy rewards those who have watched the previous two films. It is not a mystery, but a fine example of the old standby of the courtroom drama, and puts the trilogy back on solid ground after some of the stumbles towards the end of the second chapter.
The King's Speech. I don't care about royals, and the desciption of the film sounded like nothing for me. But it is so well acted, and so well put together, that it is termendouly entertaining.
Let Me In. Unnerving, simply unnerving. Most films about vampires have vampires which involve romanticizing of the cold blooded characters. The stakes seem real here. The atmosphere is so thick, using the issue of bullying to show how a loner child could be attracted to a vampire in the first place.
Red Riding. Three films, each with different main characters, blend together to tell the story of how local corruption rots the system and is responsible for destoying many souls.
Scott Pilgrim vs. The World. Life as a video game. One the true pure entertainments of the year, even though some of the criticisms of the main character in the source material are clearly missing, to the detriment of the film. A film not so eager to make the main character too bland and likable would have made my top ten instead of the runners-up.
Shutter Island. The true mess with your mind film of the spring, assembled as only a master like Martin Scorsese could do it.
The Tillman Story. Rather than just tell the story of a hero, this film dug more and gave us much more a sense of what was lost when Pat Tillman was killed in action, as well as an indictment of a system so deperate for a hero that the facts were brushed aside.
True Grit. Yes, the Coen brothers land in my top 20 again. But this feels less like one of their films and more like a pure western the way it was, with a star-making performance in the lead by Hailee Steinfeld.
Waking Sleeping Beauty. Yes, the story of Disney's animation renaissance in the 1980s is well-known (especially by me) but this telling of the story, with behind the scenes footage, priceless caricatures and drawings from the artists and even handed direction from Don Hahn (who produced Beauty and the Beast, so he knows the story well) is the most fun I've had hearing the story.
A note about eligibility: The film are eligible in the period they play my area, west central Ohio. Two films I have seen of this writing, Blue Valentine and Rabbit Hole, did not play until 2011. They will be considered for next year's list. Same with Biutiful, Country Strong, and Somewhere. Meanwhile 2009 films that did not get here until 2009 are eligible for 2010, such as The White Ribbon, The Lovely Bones, The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus, and the afore-mentioned Crazy Heart. But I judged none of them as good as the 20 movies that follow.
Also, in the past, I have restricted myself to the Dayton-Springfield area for eligibility. I have decided to include Columbus in my eligibility period this year, as a surprising amount of films played there and did not get to Dayton. Included in that group are The Secret of Kells, Enter the Void, Red Riding, Waking Sleeping Beauty, and Buried. I'm not sure if The Tillman Story played Dayton, but it played Columbus, so it is also eligible.
Not eligible are movies made for television. I've seen HBO movies specifically make reviewers lists in the past. But if I allowed them, Temple Grandin would definitely made my list. As a father of an autistic child, I appreciated this look into the autistic mind that was like nothing I've ever seen. It would have ranked in the top ten if eligible.
Without further ado, the ten runners-up, in alphabetical order:
Best Worst Movie. Anyone who loves bad movies owes it to themselves to see this. No film has captured the allure of awesomely terrible films than this documentary of the rise and fall of Troll 2 years after its making. The funniest thing about the film is how most of the cast seems to know they made a disaster, while most of technical crew seems to think they made a masterpiece. (And yes, Troll 2 is as bad as advertised.)
The Girl that Kicked the Hornet's Nest. The conclusion of the Milennium trilogy rewards those who have watched the previous two films. It is not a mystery, but a fine example of the old standby of the courtroom drama, and puts the trilogy back on solid ground after some of the stumbles towards the end of the second chapter.
The King's Speech. I don't care about royals, and the desciption of the film sounded like nothing for me. But it is so well acted, and so well put together, that it is termendouly entertaining.
Let Me In. Unnerving, simply unnerving. Most films about vampires have vampires which involve romanticizing of the cold blooded characters. The stakes seem real here. The atmosphere is so thick, using the issue of bullying to show how a loner child could be attracted to a vampire in the first place.
Red Riding. Three films, each with different main characters, blend together to tell the story of how local corruption rots the system and is responsible for destoying many souls.
Scott Pilgrim vs. The World. Life as a video game. One the true pure entertainments of the year, even though some of the criticisms of the main character in the source material are clearly missing, to the detriment of the film. A film not so eager to make the main character too bland and likable would have made my top ten instead of the runners-up.
Shutter Island. The true mess with your mind film of the spring, assembled as only a master like Martin Scorsese could do it.
The Tillman Story. Rather than just tell the story of a hero, this film dug more and gave us much more a sense of what was lost when Pat Tillman was killed in action, as well as an indictment of a system so deperate for a hero that the facts were brushed aside.
True Grit. Yes, the Coen brothers land in my top 20 again. But this feels less like one of their films and more like a pure western the way it was, with a star-making performance in the lead by Hailee Steinfeld.
Waking Sleeping Beauty. Yes, the story of Disney's animation renaissance in the 1980s is well-known (especially by me) but this telling of the story, with behind the scenes footage, priceless caricatures and drawings from the artists and even handed direction from Don Hahn (who produced Beauty and the Beast, so he knows the story well) is the most fun I've had hearing the story.
Thursday, February 3, 2011
Burlesque (2009)
I believe it was Jean Luc Godard who said the best way to criticize a film is to make another film. In the case of Burlesque, that film has already been made, so I only have to point in the direction of Moulin Rouge.
Moulin Rouge earned an Oscar nomination for director Baz Lahrmann. And that's the biggest difference, Because Burlesque has Steve Antin and its writer-director, and he's in over his head.
And that's the basic problem with Burlesque. It has moments of great entertainment, and dialogue that inspires groans. What it lacks is someone with a unifying vision, a grand sense of the film.
For example, the film's opening is some bar in Iowa, and then we see the main character move to LA, look for a job, get a cheap hotel room, and exactly none of this is compelling. The film should have opened with her entrance into the burlesque hall where most of the film takes place, because that is when the film gets going. But by then 7-8 minutes have been wasted. A better director would have known that.
And the film has some elements. Christina Aguilera is OK as an actress, but she is a performer with few peers -- especially that voice. Her performances inspire awe. Her dialogue scenes have the audience wanting another performance, not really caring what happens to her character.
Cher is, well, Cher. She is an icon. But even she doesn't really know what to do with the worn plot of her about to lose the club due to high bills, and if she would only take the nice offer the rich man is making. I would have cut the subplot out entirely, including the ex-husband played by Peter Gallagher, who spends the entire film whining about bills, and nothing else.
Antin also doesn't seem to know what to do with his virtues. Stanley Tucci does get plenty of screen time of Cher's oldest and dearest friend, and he's priceless. But he also has Alan Cumming, and barely in the film. Dude, it's a musical! It's Alan Cumming! How do you not give him at least one big number.
I love musicals. Probably more than most people. I was expecting a glorious guilty pleasure. But the film's a mess. Frustrating, because there was enough good elements for a really enjoyable picture, Leaving the picture, I felt the frustration more than the entertainment. That's not the way I want to leave the theater,
Grade: C
Moulin Rouge earned an Oscar nomination for director Baz Lahrmann. And that's the biggest difference, Because Burlesque has Steve Antin and its writer-director, and he's in over his head.
And that's the basic problem with Burlesque. It has moments of great entertainment, and dialogue that inspires groans. What it lacks is someone with a unifying vision, a grand sense of the film.
For example, the film's opening is some bar in Iowa, and then we see the main character move to LA, look for a job, get a cheap hotel room, and exactly none of this is compelling. The film should have opened with her entrance into the burlesque hall where most of the film takes place, because that is when the film gets going. But by then 7-8 minutes have been wasted. A better director would have known that.
And the film has some elements. Christina Aguilera is OK as an actress, but she is a performer with few peers -- especially that voice. Her performances inspire awe. Her dialogue scenes have the audience wanting another performance, not really caring what happens to her character.
Cher is, well, Cher. She is an icon. But even she doesn't really know what to do with the worn plot of her about to lose the club due to high bills, and if she would only take the nice offer the rich man is making. I would have cut the subplot out entirely, including the ex-husband played by Peter Gallagher, who spends the entire film whining about bills, and nothing else.
Antin also doesn't seem to know what to do with his virtues. Stanley Tucci does get plenty of screen time of Cher's oldest and dearest friend, and he's priceless. But he also has Alan Cumming, and barely in the film. Dude, it's a musical! It's Alan Cumming! How do you not give him at least one big number.
I love musicals. Probably more than most people. I was expecting a glorious guilty pleasure. But the film's a mess. Frustrating, because there was enough good elements for a really enjoyable picture, Leaving the picture, I felt the frustration more than the entertainment. That's not the way I want to leave the theater,
Grade: C
Monday, January 24, 2011
Oscar nominations predictions: everything else
Brief comments are after the predictions in each category.
BEST DIRECTOR
Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
Joel & Ethan Coen, True Grit
David Fincher, The Social Network
Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
Christopher Nolan, Inception
I see the Coens in a slight upset over David O. Russell for The Fighter. Russell's burned a lot of bridges, and the Coens are beloved.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
Another Year and Blue Valentine seem to be the possible spoilers.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Ghost Writer
The Social Network
True Grit
Toy Story 3
Winter's Bone
I'm really shaky about The Ghost Writer, but it seemed to me more of a writer's picture. The Town or 127 Hours would not surprise me here.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
How to Train Your Dragon
Tangled
Toy Story 3
It is easy to pick the top five, but only three will be nominated as not enough films were submitted. The other two fighting Tangled for the fifth slot are The Illusionist and Despicable Me.
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Incendies (Canada)
In a Better World (Denmark)
Dogtooth (Greece)
Biutiful (Mexico)
Life Above All (South Africa)
Unsure about everything except Biutiful. The other finalists are Outside the Law (Algeria), Confessions (Japan), Even the Rain (Spain), and Simple Simon (Sweden).
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Inside Job
Restrepo
The Tillman Story
Waiting for Superman
William Kustler: Disturbing the Universe
Exit Through the Gift Shop is on many radars because it was so well made, but it broke too many rules for the tradintional Academy. I would be delighted to be wrong about this.
BEST ART DIRECTION
Alice in Wonderland (Robert Stromberg)
Inception (Guy Dyas)
The King's Speech (Eve Stewart)
Shutter Island (Dante Ferretti)
True Grit (Jess Gonchor)
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Black Swan (Matthew Libatique)
Inception (wally Pfister)
Shutter Island (Robert Richardson)
The Social Network (Jeff Cronenweth)
True Grit (Roger Deakins)
Shutter Island is a bit of a reach, but Richardson is well respected, with 6 former nominations. The other likely candidates are The King's Speech and 127 Hours.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Alice in Wonderland (Colleen Atwood)
Black Swan (Amy Westcott)
Burlesque (Michael Kaplan)
The King's Speech (Jenny Beavan)
The Tempest (Sandy Powell)
They tend to lean towards flashy in this category, so I almost omitted The King's Speech. I am omitting True Grit for this reason, and am taking the flashier work in Burlesque and The Tempest.
BEST EDITING
Black Swan (Andrew Weisblum)
Inception (Lee Smith)
The King's Speech (Tariq Anwar)
Shutter Island (Thelma Schoonmaker)
The Social Network (Kirk Baxter and Angus Wall)
Shutter Island is a bit of a reach, but Schoonmaker is a legend.
BEST MAKEUP
Alice in Wonderland
Joanh Hex
The Wolf Man
The other semifinalists are Barney's Version, The Fighter, True Grit, and The Way Back.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Alice in Wonderland (Danny Elfman)
Inception (Hans Zimmer)
The King's Speech (Alexandre Desplat)
Never Let Me Go (Rachel Portman)
The Social Network (Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross)
It would be nice if Daft Punk were to be recognized for Tron Legacy, but a techno score has no chance. I'm going out on a limb predicting the stogy music branch might nominate Trent Reznor.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
"You Haven't Seen the Last of Me Yet" (Burlesque)
"I See the Light" (Tangled)
"Shine" (Waiting for Superman)
This category can have 2-5 nominees, if enough songs are seen as quality. I am predicting only three will. If there are five nominees, I predict the other two nominees would be "We Belong Together" from Toy Story 3 and "Chanson Illusionist" from The Illusionist.
BEST SOUND MIXING
Black Swan
Inception
The Social Network
Tron Legacy
True Grit
A nod for Shutter Island would not surprise me. But I couldn't figure out which one of the above five it would beat.
BEST SOUND EDITING
Inception
127 Hours
Tron Legacy
True Grit
Toy Story 3
Other possibles here are Hoe to Train Your Dragon and The Social Network.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deadly Hallows, Part 1
Inception
Iron Man 2
Tron Legacy
The other two semifinalists are Hereafter and Scott Pilgrim Vs The World.
BEST DIRECTOR
Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
Joel & Ethan Coen, True Grit
David Fincher, The Social Network
Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
Christopher Nolan, Inception
I see the Coens in a slight upset over David O. Russell for The Fighter. Russell's burned a lot of bridges, and the Coens are beloved.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
Another Year and Blue Valentine seem to be the possible spoilers.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Ghost Writer
The Social Network
True Grit
Toy Story 3
Winter's Bone
I'm really shaky about The Ghost Writer, but it seemed to me more of a writer's picture. The Town or 127 Hours would not surprise me here.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
How to Train Your Dragon
Tangled
Toy Story 3
It is easy to pick the top five, but only three will be nominated as not enough films were submitted. The other two fighting Tangled for the fifth slot are The Illusionist and Despicable Me.
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Incendies (Canada)
In a Better World (Denmark)
Dogtooth (Greece)
Biutiful (Mexico)
Life Above All (South Africa)
Unsure about everything except Biutiful. The other finalists are Outside the Law (Algeria), Confessions (Japan), Even the Rain (Spain), and Simple Simon (Sweden).
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Inside Job
Restrepo
The Tillman Story
Waiting for Superman
William Kustler: Disturbing the Universe
Exit Through the Gift Shop is on many radars because it was so well made, but it broke too many rules for the tradintional Academy. I would be delighted to be wrong about this.
BEST ART DIRECTION
Alice in Wonderland (Robert Stromberg)
Inception (Guy Dyas)
The King's Speech (Eve Stewart)
Shutter Island (Dante Ferretti)
True Grit (Jess Gonchor)
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Black Swan (Matthew Libatique)
Inception (wally Pfister)
Shutter Island (Robert Richardson)
The Social Network (Jeff Cronenweth)
True Grit (Roger Deakins)
Shutter Island is a bit of a reach, but Richardson is well respected, with 6 former nominations. The other likely candidates are The King's Speech and 127 Hours.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Alice in Wonderland (Colleen Atwood)
Black Swan (Amy Westcott)
Burlesque (Michael Kaplan)
The King's Speech (Jenny Beavan)
The Tempest (Sandy Powell)
They tend to lean towards flashy in this category, so I almost omitted The King's Speech. I am omitting True Grit for this reason, and am taking the flashier work in Burlesque and The Tempest.
BEST EDITING
Black Swan (Andrew Weisblum)
Inception (Lee Smith)
The King's Speech (Tariq Anwar)
Shutter Island (Thelma Schoonmaker)
The Social Network (Kirk Baxter and Angus Wall)
Shutter Island is a bit of a reach, but Schoonmaker is a legend.
BEST MAKEUP
Alice in Wonderland
Joanh Hex
The Wolf Man
The other semifinalists are Barney's Version, The Fighter, True Grit, and The Way Back.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Alice in Wonderland (Danny Elfman)
Inception (Hans Zimmer)
The King's Speech (Alexandre Desplat)
Never Let Me Go (Rachel Portman)
The Social Network (Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross)
It would be nice if Daft Punk were to be recognized for Tron Legacy, but a techno score has no chance. I'm going out on a limb predicting the stogy music branch might nominate Trent Reznor.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
"You Haven't Seen the Last of Me Yet" (Burlesque)
"I See the Light" (Tangled)
"Shine" (Waiting for Superman)
This category can have 2-5 nominees, if enough songs are seen as quality. I am predicting only three will. If there are five nominees, I predict the other two nominees would be "We Belong Together" from Toy Story 3 and "Chanson Illusionist" from The Illusionist.
BEST SOUND MIXING
Black Swan
Inception
The Social Network
Tron Legacy
True Grit
A nod for Shutter Island would not surprise me. But I couldn't figure out which one of the above five it would beat.
BEST SOUND EDITING
Inception
127 Hours
Tron Legacy
True Grit
Toy Story 3
Other possibles here are Hoe to Train Your Dragon and The Social Network.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deadly Hallows, Part 1
Inception
Iron Man 2
Tron Legacy
The other two semifinalists are Hereafter and Scott Pilgrim Vs The World.
Oscar Nominations Predictions: Acting
BEST ACTOR
We got here one mortal lock, three highly probables, and one totally wide open slot.
The mortal lock is Colin Firth. He will win this category. The three highly probables are Jesse Eisenberg, James Franco, and Jeff Bridges. All have the right combination of indicators.
The fifth slot could be something completely out of left field. Many are assuming Robert Duvall for Get Low because ... well, because he's Duvall (a very good reason, mind you). But did enough people see the film? The performance in a probable best picture nominee is Mark Wahlberg in The Fighter, but its less showy than his three likely to be nomnated co-stars, which will hurt. Then there is previous nominee Ryan Gosling for Blue Valentine, also a relatively small film. Given all the marks these three contenders get, I'm going to go out on a limb here, and predict the small film's performance (by a previous winner) that seems to be gathering some late momentum.
Predictions:
Javier Bardem, Biutiful
Jeff Bridges, True Grit
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Colin Firth, The King's Speech
James Franco, 127 Hours
BEST ACTRESS
The two Golden Globe winners are locks, and I can't see Lawrence missing either. Many have the last two slots going to Michelle WIlliams for Blue Valentine and Nicole Kidman for Rabbit Hole. Both are strong actresses in relatively small films. But I think they are fighting for only one slot, and I give Williams the edge as her film has been more successful, and because at the Golden Globes, I felt the applause for her was heavier than that for Kidman. The voters for the Globes may not vote for the Oscars, but many of the audience members do.
So why do I see only one slot available? Because I sense Academy voters rebelling at the most obvious category fraud this year. Hailee Steinfeld is in nearly every scene of True Grit. But she's a teenager, so the studio has pushed her for supporting. The same thing happened with Keisha Castle-Hughes a few years ago, and she ended up in lead for Whale Rider. I suspect the same thing happens for Steinfeld.
Predictions:
Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
I'm going with five favorites from five predited best picture nominees. I can't find a spoiler, which of course means I've missed something. Maybe Pete Postlethaite in his final role in The Town?
Predictions:
Christian Bale, The Fighter
Andrew Garfield, The Social Network
Jeremy Renner, The Town
Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
I thought there were six fighting for five slots for awhile, but if I am correct about Steinfeld moving up to lead, then there are five nominees: the same five who were nominated for the Golden Globes. If Steinfeld stays in this category, then I then Weaver is out of luck in the film almost no one saw (the other four are in likely picture nominees)
Predictions:
Amy Adams, The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech
Mila Kunis, Black Swan
Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom
We got here one mortal lock, three highly probables, and one totally wide open slot.
The mortal lock is Colin Firth. He will win this category. The three highly probables are Jesse Eisenberg, James Franco, and Jeff Bridges. All have the right combination of indicators.
The fifth slot could be something completely out of left field. Many are assuming Robert Duvall for Get Low because ... well, because he's Duvall (a very good reason, mind you). But did enough people see the film? The performance in a probable best picture nominee is Mark Wahlberg in The Fighter, but its less showy than his three likely to be nomnated co-stars, which will hurt. Then there is previous nominee Ryan Gosling for Blue Valentine, also a relatively small film. Given all the marks these three contenders get, I'm going to go out on a limb here, and predict the small film's performance (by a previous winner) that seems to be gathering some late momentum.
Predictions:
Javier Bardem, Biutiful
Jeff Bridges, True Grit
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Colin Firth, The King's Speech
James Franco, 127 Hours
BEST ACTRESS
The two Golden Globe winners are locks, and I can't see Lawrence missing either. Many have the last two slots going to Michelle WIlliams for Blue Valentine and Nicole Kidman for Rabbit Hole. Both are strong actresses in relatively small films. But I think they are fighting for only one slot, and I give Williams the edge as her film has been more successful, and because at the Golden Globes, I felt the applause for her was heavier than that for Kidman. The voters for the Globes may not vote for the Oscars, but many of the audience members do.
So why do I see only one slot available? Because I sense Academy voters rebelling at the most obvious category fraud this year. Hailee Steinfeld is in nearly every scene of True Grit. But she's a teenager, so the studio has pushed her for supporting. The same thing happened with Keisha Castle-Hughes a few years ago, and she ended up in lead for Whale Rider. I suspect the same thing happens for Steinfeld.
Predictions:
Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
I'm going with five favorites from five predited best picture nominees. I can't find a spoiler, which of course means I've missed something. Maybe Pete Postlethaite in his final role in The Town?
Predictions:
Christian Bale, The Fighter
Andrew Garfield, The Social Network
Jeremy Renner, The Town
Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
I thought there were six fighting for five slots for awhile, but if I am correct about Steinfeld moving up to lead, then there are five nominees: the same five who were nominated for the Golden Globes. If Steinfeld stays in this category, then I then Weaver is out of luck in the film almost no one saw (the other four are in likely picture nominees)
Predictions:
Amy Adams, The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech
Mila Kunis, Black Swan
Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom
Oscar Nominations predictions: Picture
Six films this year seem to have dominated the discussion: The Social Network, The King's Speech, The Fighter, Black Swan, Inception, and True Grit. I believe if there were only five picture nominess, they would come out of this group. I believe the majority of the awards will go to these six films. They are all shoo-ins.
Two other films seem to be almost assumed in the race by most, and I see no reason to disagree: The Kids Are All Right and Toy Story 3. The first is an independent film done with stars and the politics will help it with the liberal-leaning Academy, and with 10 nominees, it appears there will be a Pixar slot until the time when (if?) they stumble. It wasn't this year: Toy Story 3 has a definite fan base.
Which leaves two slots. I whiffed on my choices for the two final slots this year. I see the contenders for these two slots as The Town, 127 Hours, Winter's Bone, Blue Valentine, and The Ghost Writer. I think that the Hollywood people of the Academy will lean to the solid studio film in The Town. Of the four indies I have down, I think the film with the most passionate following is Winter's Bone.
It shocks me that I have not ended up predicting 127 Hours, but ultimately, its box office was deidedly underwhelming, and its target audience are most likely to favor other films on the list, most notably Inception and The Social Network. In an auteur-heavy year, I think the Oscar-winning director from two years ago (127 Hours' Dany Boyle) will be sitting out this year's race.
The predictions:
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
The Social Network
The Town
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone
Two other films seem to be almost assumed in the race by most, and I see no reason to disagree: The Kids Are All Right and Toy Story 3. The first is an independent film done with stars and the politics will help it with the liberal-leaning Academy, and with 10 nominees, it appears there will be a Pixar slot until the time when (if?) they stumble. It wasn't this year: Toy Story 3 has a definite fan base.
Which leaves two slots. I whiffed on my choices for the two final slots this year. I see the contenders for these two slots as The Town, 127 Hours, Winter's Bone, Blue Valentine, and The Ghost Writer. I think that the Hollywood people of the Academy will lean to the solid studio film in The Town. Of the four indies I have down, I think the film with the most passionate following is Winter's Bone.
It shocks me that I have not ended up predicting 127 Hours, but ultimately, its box office was deidedly underwhelming, and its target audience are most likely to favor other films on the list, most notably Inception and The Social Network. In an auteur-heavy year, I think the Oscar-winning director from two years ago (127 Hours' Dany Boyle) will be sitting out this year's race.
The predictions:
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
The Social Network
The Town
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone
Saturday, January 15, 2011
Golden Globes
Yes, they are silly. Yes, they are corrupt. But they are also entertaining, so I'll watch.
And predicting can be tough, because the Hollywood Foreign Press Association has conflicting motives. They like stars. OK, they are blinded by them. How else can you explain the nominations this year for Angelia Jolie and Halle Berry? But they also like to show off their acumen, so sometimes they try to prove it by some early awards to up and commers. And then sometimes they are just inexplicable. We'll see hwat they are this year.
I am restricting myself to the 14 movie categories. I just don't know enough about the TV shows to make a good prediction. Although I am rooting for Temple Grandin.
These categories are in the order they are presented on the awards' official website.
BEST PICTURE DRAMA
I think the two heavyweights here are The King's Speech and The Social Network. Neither would surprise me. I'm going with The King's Speech.
BEST ACTRESS DRAMA
Natalie Portman in The Black Swan. Her main competition for the Oscar is in the comedy category.
BEST ACTOR DRAMA
Whenever someone is a heavy favorite for the Oscar the globes tend to want to say then knew it too. Colin Firth is a heavy favorite this year for The King's Speech.
BEST PICTURE COMEDY/MUSCIAL
The Kids Are Alright is great. Three of the nominees are middling, and I;m not sure what The Tourist ranks as. I hope the great film wins.
BEST ACTRESS COMEDY/MUSICAL
Yje other Oscar favorite for best actress is Annette Bening for The Kids Are Alright. I expect her here as well.
BEST ACTOR COMEDY/MUSICAL
Oh dear. None of the guys is a serious contender for the Oscars. With Johnny Depp double nominated, I believe he will win, for the better film, Alice in Wonderland.
BEST ANIMATED FILM
Toy Story 3 in a walk.
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
The most acclaimed is Biutiful, so that's the prediction.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
This may be the most wide open category, as I can see any of the five winning. I'll go with the most out of left field, Jacki Weaver for Animal Kingdom.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
For the most tranformative performance of the bunch, the unrecognizable Christian Bale for The Fighter.
BEST DIRECTOR
Here's where I see a split vote from best picture drama. The flashier is David Fincher for The Social Network.
BEST SCREENPLAY
Going with the most famous, Aaron Sorkin for The Social Network.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
If they stay traditional, it's The King's Speech.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
The Burlesque double nominations here give me paude, but I see a reward for Disney's return to form, and a win for "I See The Light" from Tangled.
...and the envelopes are now sealed. We'll see what happens.
And predicting can be tough, because the Hollywood Foreign Press Association has conflicting motives. They like stars. OK, they are blinded by them. How else can you explain the nominations this year for Angelia Jolie and Halle Berry? But they also like to show off their acumen, so sometimes they try to prove it by some early awards to up and commers. And then sometimes they are just inexplicable. We'll see hwat they are this year.
I am restricting myself to the 14 movie categories. I just don't know enough about the TV shows to make a good prediction. Although I am rooting for Temple Grandin.
These categories are in the order they are presented on the awards' official website.
BEST PICTURE DRAMA
I think the two heavyweights here are The King's Speech and The Social Network. Neither would surprise me. I'm going with The King's Speech.
BEST ACTRESS DRAMA
Natalie Portman in The Black Swan. Her main competition for the Oscar is in the comedy category.
BEST ACTOR DRAMA
Whenever someone is a heavy favorite for the Oscar the globes tend to want to say then knew it too. Colin Firth is a heavy favorite this year for The King's Speech.
BEST PICTURE COMEDY/MUSCIAL
The Kids Are Alright is great. Three of the nominees are middling, and I;m not sure what The Tourist ranks as. I hope the great film wins.
BEST ACTRESS COMEDY/MUSICAL
Yje other Oscar favorite for best actress is Annette Bening for The Kids Are Alright. I expect her here as well.
BEST ACTOR COMEDY/MUSICAL
Oh dear. None of the guys is a serious contender for the Oscars. With Johnny Depp double nominated, I believe he will win, for the better film, Alice in Wonderland.
BEST ANIMATED FILM
Toy Story 3 in a walk.
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
The most acclaimed is Biutiful, so that's the prediction.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
This may be the most wide open category, as I can see any of the five winning. I'll go with the most out of left field, Jacki Weaver for Animal Kingdom.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
For the most tranformative performance of the bunch, the unrecognizable Christian Bale for The Fighter.
BEST DIRECTOR
Here's where I see a split vote from best picture drama. The flashier is David Fincher for The Social Network.
BEST SCREENPLAY
Going with the most famous, Aaron Sorkin for The Social Network.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
If they stay traditional, it's The King's Speech.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
The Burlesque double nominations here give me paude, but I see a reward for Disney's return to form, and a win for "I See The Light" from Tangled.
...and the envelopes are now sealed. We'll see what happens.
Thursday, January 13, 2011
So now what?
I don't really do New Year's resolutions. I do think it is a logical time to reassess my life, and to figure out what I need to change.
The two things I am focuses on is my fitness and this blog, niether of which have been getting the attention I've wanted. I say my fitness because though I am indeed overweight, and not happy about that, the basic problem is I have not been exercising enough. So this week I have started the PTI workout, which consists of trying to do as much distance on my exercise bike while watching the show PTI on ESPN.
As for this blog, I chose to try and write every Sunday, but that hasn't worked. I wanted to provide myself the chance to comment on whatever, and I wanted to try and do that in a weekly column. But that became a restraint. So I won't just try to do posts just on Sunday. If an idea hits me, I'll write on it and that time. I am still going to refer to it as Sunday Scribblings. And if I succeed in writing more, I'll move it back to Sundays.
So not what? First, Golden Globe predictions, since the show is this week. Soon after, Oscar nomination predictions. And after that, I'll post my 2010 top ten list. In between, I'll start posting reviews. While posting reviews of the movies I'm currently watching, I'll start posting reviews of the movies I saw last year but never provided comments, beginning with my list movies and Disney movies seen.
I hope.
The two things I am focuses on is my fitness and this blog, niether of which have been getting the attention I've wanted. I say my fitness because though I am indeed overweight, and not happy about that, the basic problem is I have not been exercising enough. So this week I have started the PTI workout, which consists of trying to do as much distance on my exercise bike while watching the show PTI on ESPN.
As for this blog, I chose to try and write every Sunday, but that hasn't worked. I wanted to provide myself the chance to comment on whatever, and I wanted to try and do that in a weekly column. But that became a restraint. So I won't just try to do posts just on Sunday. If an idea hits me, I'll write on it and that time. I am still going to refer to it as Sunday Scribblings. And if I succeed in writing more, I'll move it back to Sundays.
So not what? First, Golden Globe predictions, since the show is this week. Soon after, Oscar nomination predictions. And after that, I'll post my 2010 top ten list. In between, I'll start posting reviews. While posting reviews of the movies I'm currently watching, I'll start posting reviews of the movies I saw last year but never provided comments, beginning with my list movies and Disney movies seen.
I hope.
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