Best Adapted Screenplay
American Sniper
Gone Girl
The Imitation Game
The Theory of Everything
Whiplash
Best Original Screenplay
Birdman
Boyhood
The Grand Budapest Hotel
A Most Violent Year
Nightcrawler
Best Cinematography
Birdman
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Interstellar
Mr. Turner
Unbroken
Best Costume Design
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Inherent Vice
Into The Woods
Maleficent
Best Editing
American Sniper
Birdman
Boyhood
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Whiplash
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Guardians of the Galaxy
The Theory of Everything
Best Original Score
Gone Girl
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Interstellar
The Theory of Everything
Best Original Song
"Lost Stars" (Begin Again)
"Ryan's Song" (Boyhood)
"Yellow Flicker Beat" (The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1)
"Everything is Awesome" (The LEGO Movie)
"Glory" (Selma)
Best Production Design
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Interstellar
Into The Woods
Mr. Turner
Best Sound Editing
American Sniper
Birdman
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Guardians of the Galaxy
Interstellar
Best Sound Mixing
American Sniper
Birdman
Guardians of the Galaxy
The Imitation Game
Whiplash
Best Visual Effects
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Godzilla
Guardians of the Galaxy
Interstellar
X-Men: Days of Future Past
Best Animated Feature
The Book of Life
The Boxtrolls
How to Train Your Dragon 2
The LEGO Movie
The Tale of Princess Kaguya
Best Documentary Feature
CITIZENFOUR
Finding Vivian Maier
Life Itself
The Overnighters
Virunga
Best Foreign Language Film
Force Majeure (Switzerland)
Ida (Poland)
Leviathan (Russia)
Timbuktu (Mauritania)
Wild Tales (Argentina)
Wednesday, January 14, 2015
Monday, January 12, 2015
Oscar nomination predictions (acting)
Best Actor
Cumberbatch, Keaton and Redmayne: all three have been in the conversation for the win since each performance was seen by the public. All three are locks.
Less sure about Oyelowo, but it does seem like a performance to award.
The other person who has been in the predictions list for a long time is Steve Carrell for Foxcatcher. But as love for the film fades, love for the performance has faded. Now there seems to be dispute as to whether his performance is supporting or lead.
Which has left an open slot for a surprise. The performance that has popped up in the precursors is in the film that has gained late, Nightcrawler. I am predicting a surprise nomination to that film.
Predictions
Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game)
Jake Gyllenhaal (Nightcrawler)
Michael Keaton (Birdman)
David Oyelowo (Selma)
Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything)
Best Actress
The fifth slot is the tough slot here. Conventional wisdom has the race between two little seen films: Jennifer Aniston in Cake and Amy Adams in Big Eyes. Aniston has campaigned hard and I think that will be rewarded.
I will be shocked if any of the other four are not nominated, especially Moore, who is a near lock for the win.
Predictions
Jennifer Aniston (Cake)
Felicity Jones (The Theory of Everything)
Julianne Moore (Still Alice)
Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl)
Reese Witherspoon (Wild)
Best Supporting Actor
I have been telling friends someone would jump up and take the Duvall default pick. I'm still waiting... and I don't see anyone taking the spot.
I cannot come up with a good argument for any nominations but the five below.
Predictions
Robert Duvall (The Judge)
Ethan Hawke (Boyhood)
Edward Norton (Birdman)
Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher)
J.K. Simmons (Whiplash)
Best Supporting Actress
Stone and Arquette are in the big two films. The third biggest film is Imitation Game, and that's the third nominee. And Meryl Streep is the most respected actor alive.
Rene Russo has gained with Nightcrawler gaining ground, but...
Jessica Chastain was forced by contract to not mention A Most Violent Year while campaigning for Interstellar. Many know what happened, and I think she gained some sympathy. And I think most voter know which film they prefer.
Predictions
Patricia Arquette (Boyhood)
Jessica Chastain (A Most Violent Year)
Keira Knightly (The Imitation Game)
Emma Stone (Birdman)
Meryl Streep (Into the Woods)
Cumberbatch, Keaton and Redmayne: all three have been in the conversation for the win since each performance was seen by the public. All three are locks.
Less sure about Oyelowo, but it does seem like a performance to award.
The other person who has been in the predictions list for a long time is Steve Carrell for Foxcatcher. But as love for the film fades, love for the performance has faded. Now there seems to be dispute as to whether his performance is supporting or lead.
Which has left an open slot for a surprise. The performance that has popped up in the precursors is in the film that has gained late, Nightcrawler. I am predicting a surprise nomination to that film.
Predictions
Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game)
Jake Gyllenhaal (Nightcrawler)
Michael Keaton (Birdman)
David Oyelowo (Selma)
Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything)
Best Actress
The fifth slot is the tough slot here. Conventional wisdom has the race between two little seen films: Jennifer Aniston in Cake and Amy Adams in Big Eyes. Aniston has campaigned hard and I think that will be rewarded.
I will be shocked if any of the other four are not nominated, especially Moore, who is a near lock for the win.
Predictions
Jennifer Aniston (Cake)
Felicity Jones (The Theory of Everything)
Julianne Moore (Still Alice)
Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl)
Reese Witherspoon (Wild)
Best Supporting Actor
I have been telling friends someone would jump up and take the Duvall default pick. I'm still waiting... and I don't see anyone taking the spot.
I cannot come up with a good argument for any nominations but the five below.
Predictions
Robert Duvall (The Judge)
Ethan Hawke (Boyhood)
Edward Norton (Birdman)
Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher)
J.K. Simmons (Whiplash)
Best Supporting Actress
Stone and Arquette are in the big two films. The third biggest film is Imitation Game, and that's the third nominee. And Meryl Streep is the most respected actor alive.
Rene Russo has gained with Nightcrawler gaining ground, but...
Jessica Chastain was forced by contract to not mention A Most Violent Year while campaigning for Interstellar. Many know what happened, and I think she gained some sympathy. And I think most voter know which film they prefer.
Predictions
Patricia Arquette (Boyhood)
Jessica Chastain (A Most Violent Year)
Keira Knightly (The Imitation Game)
Emma Stone (Birdman)
Meryl Streep (Into the Woods)
Oscar nomination predictions (Picture and Director)
Best Picture
One key to predicting is to look at how the preferential voting effects the choices. The key is that films need to be loved. They need to be the first choices, not the fourth of fifth choices.
The top two contenders in my mind are Boyhood and Birdman. Both are not like anything in the race this year or any other year, for that matter. These two are shoo-ins.
The next tier, in my opinion, are The Imitation Game and Selma. Both are traditional Oscar bait, well done true life stories. Hard to imagine either of them missing.
One other contender during the entire race has been The Theory of Everything. While I sense some fading around this title, the likely only film to gain both Best Actor and Best Actress nominations I think will still have enough to get nominated even though it is similar to The Imitation Game.
One film that seemed to be in the race most of the way is Foxcatcher. But it is a hard film to love. I think of the traditional films, this is the film that has gotten lost in the shuffle. I have moved it out of my list. While we are at it, remember when Unbroken was considered a favorite? There is such a thing as filmmaking being too traditional (and relegating the most interesting part of your story to an end credit crawl).
What has climbed the list and has come up in a lot of precursors is The Grand Budapest Hotel. What at first viewing is a slight entertainment has more weight, and has picked up steam.
The Academy is older, and old pros are valued. Clint Eastwood has about as much respect as any figure, and especially because he has not rested on his laurels. I think it is close on American Sniper. Either it just gets nominated or just misses.
For awhile I was thinking Into the Woods would slip in, especially as there are no musicals in the group above. But Whiplash is about musicians, has a musicality about it, and a you-gotta-see-it performance by J. K. Simmons. I think Whiplash has gained the musical slot.
Finally, I think there is room for one darker film. Most of the above films are uplifting in one form or another. For a long time I thought that film was Gone Girl. But what started as a performance to watch in Jake Gyllenhall has gathered steam for Nightcrawler. I think it has gained the last slot.
Predictions:
American Sniper
Birdman
Boyhood
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Nightcrawler
Selma
The Theory of Everything
Whiplash
Best Director
First, we go with the big two: Birdman and Boyhood. Both directors are in.
The next tier are less sure. I think The Imitation Game is the traditional well made film that gets respected. I am even shakier on Selma's Ava DuVernay, but I think she will be helped because of the history, that no black woman has ever been nominated. Plus she delivered, which is the most important reason.
The fifth slot is wide open. The director's branch appears to be big believers in the auteur theory. There is no prediction which I am rock solid on. I'll predict the auteur of a probable best picture nominee that has yet to be nominated.
Predictions:
Wes Anderson (The Grand Budapest Hotel)
Ava DuVernay (Selma)
Richard Linklater (Birdman)
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (Birdman)
Morten Tyldum (The Imitation Game)
One key to predicting is to look at how the preferential voting effects the choices. The key is that films need to be loved. They need to be the first choices, not the fourth of fifth choices.
The top two contenders in my mind are Boyhood and Birdman. Both are not like anything in the race this year or any other year, for that matter. These two are shoo-ins.
The next tier, in my opinion, are The Imitation Game and Selma. Both are traditional Oscar bait, well done true life stories. Hard to imagine either of them missing.
One other contender during the entire race has been The Theory of Everything. While I sense some fading around this title, the likely only film to gain both Best Actor and Best Actress nominations I think will still have enough to get nominated even though it is similar to The Imitation Game.
One film that seemed to be in the race most of the way is Foxcatcher. But it is a hard film to love. I think of the traditional films, this is the film that has gotten lost in the shuffle. I have moved it out of my list. While we are at it, remember when Unbroken was considered a favorite? There is such a thing as filmmaking being too traditional (and relegating the most interesting part of your story to an end credit crawl).
What has climbed the list and has come up in a lot of precursors is The Grand Budapest Hotel. What at first viewing is a slight entertainment has more weight, and has picked up steam.
The Academy is older, and old pros are valued. Clint Eastwood has about as much respect as any figure, and especially because he has not rested on his laurels. I think it is close on American Sniper. Either it just gets nominated or just misses.
For awhile I was thinking Into the Woods would slip in, especially as there are no musicals in the group above. But Whiplash is about musicians, has a musicality about it, and a you-gotta-see-it performance by J. K. Simmons. I think Whiplash has gained the musical slot.
Finally, I think there is room for one darker film. Most of the above films are uplifting in one form or another. For a long time I thought that film was Gone Girl. But what started as a performance to watch in Jake Gyllenhall has gathered steam for Nightcrawler. I think it has gained the last slot.
Predictions:
American Sniper
Birdman
Boyhood
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Nightcrawler
Selma
The Theory of Everything
Whiplash
Best Director
First, we go with the big two: Birdman and Boyhood. Both directors are in.
The next tier are less sure. I think The Imitation Game is the traditional well made film that gets respected. I am even shakier on Selma's Ava DuVernay, but I think she will be helped because of the history, that no black woman has ever been nominated. Plus she delivered, which is the most important reason.
The fifth slot is wide open. The director's branch appears to be big believers in the auteur theory. There is no prediction which I am rock solid on. I'll predict the auteur of a probable best picture nominee that has yet to be nominated.
Predictions:
Wes Anderson (The Grand Budapest Hotel)
Ava DuVernay (Selma)
Richard Linklater (Birdman)
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (Birdman)
Morten Tyldum (The Imitation Game)
Sunday, January 4, 2015
Foxcatcher (2014)
Every year, there seems to be one film from a big film festival that just doesn't match the hype. Usually that film comes from Sundance, but this year it comes from Cannes.
Foxcatcher is that film. The film plays like a funeral. There's no life to it. It drags. And drags. And drags.
I've heard this film is some kind of great dissection of American society. All I really got from it was something that I already knew: the idle rich have too much money and are accorded too much respect because of that money. Thanks for that insight, guys.
I'm not going to say this is a horribly made film. On a technical level, it is well made. Steve Carell plays the one note of John DuPont very well. But it is one note. Channing Tatum impressed me more with a much more complicated person as portrayed in the film.
Ultimately, this film felt like homework. Except I did not feel educated at the end.
Grade: C-
Foxcatcher is that film. The film plays like a funeral. There's no life to it. It drags. And drags. And drags.
I've heard this film is some kind of great dissection of American society. All I really got from it was something that I already knew: the idle rich have too much money and are accorded too much respect because of that money. Thanks for that insight, guys.
I'm not going to say this is a horribly made film. On a technical level, it is well made. Steve Carell plays the one note of John DuPont very well. But it is one note. Channing Tatum impressed me more with a much more complicated person as portrayed in the film.
Ultimately, this film felt like homework. Except I did not feel educated at the end.
Grade: C-
Sunday 1/4/15
I awoke this morning to the news Stuart Scott had died.
For me, Sportscenter's heyday on ESPN was in the 90s. Before the commercialization of ESPN led to stupidity like a 6 pack of questions brought to you by Coors Light, before management led to mixing up the teams and anchors so there was little connection of personalities, before ESPN had celebrities show up who don't have anything to do with sports events, there were two shows and four anchors who I loved following. Dan and Keith were on at 11, and Stuart and Rich were the late show.
The magic was not just the personalities that each of these unique anchors brought to the table, but that they were true teams. Dan Patrick and Keith Olbermann clearly made each other laugh. They entertained us because they entertained each other. Stuart Scott and Rich Eisen clearly worked together even though they were complete opposites.
I heard a lot of references to Stuart's lines like "boo-yaa" and of course "as cool as the other side of the pillow" but I really enjoyed his interactions with Rich, when they would say together "MMMMMillion" whenever that ridiculous number came up. Then they added Raul MMMMondesi" to the lexicon.
They guys felt like my friends, felt like guys I would talk sports with. It shouldn't be taken serious. It should be fun. There were references to Scott today and how he brought a hip hop lexicon to the sports, and that was resisted by many. There were some that attributed that to race, but I think it was more generational. Stuart's three years older than me, but he was the first anchor who felt to me like my generation. And last I checked, I'm not black.
Journalistically, I am supposed to refer to people by their last name. But Stuart Scott -- who I never met -- felt like a friend. I will indeed miss him.
*****
It says something on how ESPN has lost its hold on me that I did not find out about Stuart Scott through ESPN. I found out through my preferred football show in the morning, The Other Pregame Show, on CBS Sports Network. I then searched the internet, saw ESPN's excellent tribute {they obviously prepared for this) narrated by Robin Roberts.
ESPN drummed the personality out of Sportscenter, and it is much the worse for it. Rich Eisen bolted for NFL Network, and Dan Patrick basically was overworked until he had no choice but to quit (although his radio show is entertaining) and Keith Olbermann is back, although it is not on Sportscenter, but his own highlight show.
I would note entertaining personalities get me coming back, not more gimmicks. What shows do I continue to watch on the ESPN channels? PTI is number one, because of Tony Kornheiser and Michael Wilbon. Mike and Mike, because of Mike Greenberg and Mike Golic. And Olbermann. That's about it. All due to personalities.
And because of your obsession with the Yankees and the Red Sox, during the summer I've stopped watching Mike and Mike, because the MLB Network actually covers the entire league.
For me, Sportscenter's heyday on ESPN was in the 90s. Before the commercialization of ESPN led to stupidity like a 6 pack of questions brought to you by Coors Light, before management led to mixing up the teams and anchors so there was little connection of personalities, before ESPN had celebrities show up who don't have anything to do with sports events, there were two shows and four anchors who I loved following. Dan and Keith were on at 11, and Stuart and Rich were the late show.
The magic was not just the personalities that each of these unique anchors brought to the table, but that they were true teams. Dan Patrick and Keith Olbermann clearly made each other laugh. They entertained us because they entertained each other. Stuart Scott and Rich Eisen clearly worked together even though they were complete opposites.
I heard a lot of references to Stuart's lines like "boo-yaa" and of course "as cool as the other side of the pillow" but I really enjoyed his interactions with Rich, when they would say together "MMMMMillion" whenever that ridiculous number came up. Then they added Raul MMMMondesi" to the lexicon.
They guys felt like my friends, felt like guys I would talk sports with. It shouldn't be taken serious. It should be fun. There were references to Scott today and how he brought a hip hop lexicon to the sports, and that was resisted by many. There were some that attributed that to race, but I think it was more generational. Stuart's three years older than me, but he was the first anchor who felt to me like my generation. And last I checked, I'm not black.
Journalistically, I am supposed to refer to people by their last name. But Stuart Scott -- who I never met -- felt like a friend. I will indeed miss him.
*****
It says something on how ESPN has lost its hold on me that I did not find out about Stuart Scott through ESPN. I found out through my preferred football show in the morning, The Other Pregame Show, on CBS Sports Network. I then searched the internet, saw ESPN's excellent tribute {they obviously prepared for this) narrated by Robin Roberts.
ESPN drummed the personality out of Sportscenter, and it is much the worse for it. Rich Eisen bolted for NFL Network, and Dan Patrick basically was overworked until he had no choice but to quit (although his radio show is entertaining) and Keith Olbermann is back, although it is not on Sportscenter, but his own highlight show.
I would note entertaining personalities get me coming back, not more gimmicks. What shows do I continue to watch on the ESPN channels? PTI is number one, because of Tony Kornheiser and Michael Wilbon. Mike and Mike, because of Mike Greenberg and Mike Golic. And Olbermann. That's about it. All due to personalities.
And because of your obsession with the Yankees and the Red Sox, during the summer I've stopped watching Mike and Mike, because the MLB Network actually covers the entire league.
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