Suggested advertising slogan: From the studio that brought you The Reader comes this year's boring self important entry in the Oscar sweepstakes.
What a painful viewing experience. Slow, boring, extensive slow motion flashbacks, almost no action, I'm just not sure how to provide any sort of analysis other than I never want to see this again. Colin Firth is good in the lead, but that's about the only thing I liked about the film.
And the ending is ridiculous.
Grade: D-
Friday, February 19, 2010
Oscar analysis, part 1
Finally got my computer back. That was annoying.
So I lost my computer, or more accurately, my internet access, right after posting my rough draft of my Oscar predictions. I actually would have made one change before the actually nominations, and it would have been a correct one: after I saw A Serious Man, I would have pulled Julianne Moore from supporting actress and correctly replaced her with Penelope Cruz in None. But I'll get to that later.
So since I never posted my analysis of my predictions, I will do that while also offering my opinions based on what I've seen, and offer up where I see the race going.
BEST PICTURE
Correct predictions: Avatar, The Blind Side, An Education, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, Precious, Up, Up In the Air.
Incorrect predictions: Crazy Heart, Julie & Julia
Instead, the nominees are: District 9, A Serious Man
Nominations analysis: I believe if there had been five as in past years, the nominees would have been Avatar, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, Precious, and Up in the Air, They've been the five strongest contenders all award season, and clearly the winner will come from one of these five. And I always felt that Up would get nominated. If there had been 10 nominees over the past 20 years, Pizar would have multiple best picture nominees over that period.
So I thought those six were slam dunks. Having no past year's patterns, figuring out the last four was tricky. I correctly thought two arthouse films would get in as major releases kind of collapsed. (Nine, Invictus, I'm looking at you.) I thought with all the buzz for Jeff Bridges' performace, Crazy Heart would slip in. Instead, it was A Serious Man that joined An Education. Guess I underestimated how many Coen fans are in the academy.
But I'm really kicking my self on the other one. I had always figured a pure audience pleasing film would get nominated, and set my sights on Julie & Julia early. But I failed to account for The Blind Side. And I should have seen the The Blind Side took away any support Julie & Julia would have gotten.
Likewise, I blew the analysis on sci-fi films. I had believed that Avatar would kill Star Trek and District 9's chances. And I do believe the people that thought Star Trek's spectacle was worthy thought Avatar's spectacle was worthier. But District 9 is more The Day the Earth Stood Still (original) than Star Wars, and I should have seen that intellectually, District 9 is different enough from Avatar and there was room enough for both.
Personal opinion: I didn't hold out any serious hope for the two films I liked the most that are not on the list: Adventureland and (500) Days of Summer. So by and large I like this list. (I still have not seen The Blind Side.) Of the nominees I have seen, in my view all but Inglorious Basterds are deserving. During the Golden Globes, I realized as picture drama was read I was rooting for Up in the Air. Avatar is an amazing cinematic experience, but Up in the Air touched me more.
Prediction for the win: Avatar is the film to beat. I think the academy is leaning towards rewarding the big film. But two small films, The Hurt Locker and Up in the Air, are the spoilers. I think they get director and screenplay awards for being the top contenders, but Avatar will win the big award.
So I lost my computer, or more accurately, my internet access, right after posting my rough draft of my Oscar predictions. I actually would have made one change before the actually nominations, and it would have been a correct one: after I saw A Serious Man, I would have pulled Julianne Moore from supporting actress and correctly replaced her with Penelope Cruz in None. But I'll get to that later.
So since I never posted my analysis of my predictions, I will do that while also offering my opinions based on what I've seen, and offer up where I see the race going.
BEST PICTURE
Correct predictions: Avatar, The Blind Side, An Education, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, Precious, Up, Up In the Air.
Incorrect predictions: Crazy Heart, Julie & Julia
Instead, the nominees are: District 9, A Serious Man
Nominations analysis: I believe if there had been five as in past years, the nominees would have been Avatar, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, Precious, and Up in the Air, They've been the five strongest contenders all award season, and clearly the winner will come from one of these five. And I always felt that Up would get nominated. If there had been 10 nominees over the past 20 years, Pizar would have multiple best picture nominees over that period.
So I thought those six were slam dunks. Having no past year's patterns, figuring out the last four was tricky. I correctly thought two arthouse films would get in as major releases kind of collapsed. (Nine, Invictus, I'm looking at you.) I thought with all the buzz for Jeff Bridges' performace, Crazy Heart would slip in. Instead, it was A Serious Man that joined An Education. Guess I underestimated how many Coen fans are in the academy.
But I'm really kicking my self on the other one. I had always figured a pure audience pleasing film would get nominated, and set my sights on Julie & Julia early. But I failed to account for The Blind Side. And I should have seen the The Blind Side took away any support Julie & Julia would have gotten.
Likewise, I blew the analysis on sci-fi films. I had believed that Avatar would kill Star Trek and District 9's chances. And I do believe the people that thought Star Trek's spectacle was worthy thought Avatar's spectacle was worthier. But District 9 is more The Day the Earth Stood Still (original) than Star Wars, and I should have seen that intellectually, District 9 is different enough from Avatar and there was room enough for both.
Personal opinion: I didn't hold out any serious hope for the two films I liked the most that are not on the list: Adventureland and (500) Days of Summer. So by and large I like this list. (I still have not seen The Blind Side.) Of the nominees I have seen, in my view all but Inglorious Basterds are deserving. During the Golden Globes, I realized as picture drama was read I was rooting for Up in the Air. Avatar is an amazing cinematic experience, but Up in the Air touched me more.
Prediction for the win: Avatar is the film to beat. I think the academy is leaning towards rewarding the big film. But two small films, The Hurt Locker and Up in the Air, are the spoilers. I think they get director and screenplay awards for being the top contenders, but Avatar will win the big award.
Sunday, February 7, 2010
UGH!!!
Just after I posted my Oscar predictions, my computer had its internet explorer destroyed by a virus. I killed the virus but have not had my internet explorer restored. The computer's now at the doctor, and I hope to be up and running next week.
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