Brief comments are after the predictions in each category.
BEST DIRECTOR
Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
Joel & Ethan Coen, True Grit
David Fincher, The Social Network
Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
Christopher Nolan, Inception
I see the Coens in a slight upset over David O. Russell for The Fighter. Russell's burned a lot of bridges, and the Coens are beloved.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
Another Year and Blue Valentine seem to be the possible spoilers.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Ghost Writer
The Social Network
True Grit
Toy Story 3
Winter's Bone
I'm really shaky about The Ghost Writer, but it seemed to me more of a writer's picture. The Town or 127 Hours would not surprise me here.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
How to Train Your Dragon
Tangled
Toy Story 3
It is easy to pick the top five, but only three will be nominated as not enough films were submitted. The other two fighting Tangled for the fifth slot are The Illusionist and Despicable Me.
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Incendies (Canada)
In a Better World (Denmark)
Dogtooth (Greece)
Biutiful (Mexico)
Life Above All (South Africa)
Unsure about everything except Biutiful. The other finalists are Outside the Law (Algeria), Confessions (Japan), Even the Rain (Spain), and Simple Simon (Sweden).
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Inside Job
Restrepo
The Tillman Story
Waiting for Superman
William Kustler: Disturbing the Universe
Exit Through the Gift Shop is on many radars because it was so well made, but it broke too many rules for the tradintional Academy. I would be delighted to be wrong about this.
BEST ART DIRECTION
Alice in Wonderland (Robert Stromberg)
Inception (Guy Dyas)
The King's Speech (Eve Stewart)
Shutter Island (Dante Ferretti)
True Grit (Jess Gonchor)
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Black Swan (Matthew Libatique)
Inception (wally Pfister)
Shutter Island (Robert Richardson)
The Social Network (Jeff Cronenweth)
True Grit (Roger Deakins)
Shutter Island is a bit of a reach, but Richardson is well respected, with 6 former nominations. The other likely candidates are The King's Speech and 127 Hours.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Alice in Wonderland (Colleen Atwood)
Black Swan (Amy Westcott)
Burlesque (Michael Kaplan)
The King's Speech (Jenny Beavan)
The Tempest (Sandy Powell)
They tend to lean towards flashy in this category, so I almost omitted The King's Speech. I am omitting True Grit for this reason, and am taking the flashier work in Burlesque and The Tempest.
BEST EDITING
Black Swan (Andrew Weisblum)
Inception (Lee Smith)
The King's Speech (Tariq Anwar)
Shutter Island (Thelma Schoonmaker)
The Social Network (Kirk Baxter and Angus Wall)
Shutter Island is a bit of a reach, but Schoonmaker is a legend.
BEST MAKEUP
Alice in Wonderland
Joanh Hex
The Wolf Man
The other semifinalists are Barney's Version, The Fighter, True Grit, and The Way Back.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Alice in Wonderland (Danny Elfman)
Inception (Hans Zimmer)
The King's Speech (Alexandre Desplat)
Never Let Me Go (Rachel Portman)
The Social Network (Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross)
It would be nice if Daft Punk were to be recognized for Tron Legacy, but a techno score has no chance. I'm going out on a limb predicting the stogy music branch might nominate Trent Reznor.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
"You Haven't Seen the Last of Me Yet" (Burlesque)
"I See the Light" (Tangled)
"Shine" (Waiting for Superman)
This category can have 2-5 nominees, if enough songs are seen as quality. I am predicting only three will. If there are five nominees, I predict the other two nominees would be "We Belong Together" from Toy Story 3 and "Chanson Illusionist" from The Illusionist.
BEST SOUND MIXING
Black Swan
Inception
The Social Network
Tron Legacy
True Grit
A nod for Shutter Island would not surprise me. But I couldn't figure out which one of the above five it would beat.
BEST SOUND EDITING
Inception
127 Hours
Tron Legacy
True Grit
Toy Story 3
Other possibles here are Hoe to Train Your Dragon and The Social Network.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deadly Hallows, Part 1
Inception
Iron Man 2
Tron Legacy
The other two semifinalists are Hereafter and Scott Pilgrim Vs The World.
Monday, January 24, 2011
Oscar Nominations Predictions: Acting
BEST ACTOR
We got here one mortal lock, three highly probables, and one totally wide open slot.
The mortal lock is Colin Firth. He will win this category. The three highly probables are Jesse Eisenberg, James Franco, and Jeff Bridges. All have the right combination of indicators.
The fifth slot could be something completely out of left field. Many are assuming Robert Duvall for Get Low because ... well, because he's Duvall (a very good reason, mind you). But did enough people see the film? The performance in a probable best picture nominee is Mark Wahlberg in The Fighter, but its less showy than his three likely to be nomnated co-stars, which will hurt. Then there is previous nominee Ryan Gosling for Blue Valentine, also a relatively small film. Given all the marks these three contenders get, I'm going to go out on a limb here, and predict the small film's performance (by a previous winner) that seems to be gathering some late momentum.
Predictions:
Javier Bardem, Biutiful
Jeff Bridges, True Grit
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Colin Firth, The King's Speech
James Franco, 127 Hours
BEST ACTRESS
The two Golden Globe winners are locks, and I can't see Lawrence missing either. Many have the last two slots going to Michelle WIlliams for Blue Valentine and Nicole Kidman for Rabbit Hole. Both are strong actresses in relatively small films. But I think they are fighting for only one slot, and I give Williams the edge as her film has been more successful, and because at the Golden Globes, I felt the applause for her was heavier than that for Kidman. The voters for the Globes may not vote for the Oscars, but many of the audience members do.
So why do I see only one slot available? Because I sense Academy voters rebelling at the most obvious category fraud this year. Hailee Steinfeld is in nearly every scene of True Grit. But she's a teenager, so the studio has pushed her for supporting. The same thing happened with Keisha Castle-Hughes a few years ago, and she ended up in lead for Whale Rider. I suspect the same thing happens for Steinfeld.
Predictions:
Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
I'm going with five favorites from five predited best picture nominees. I can't find a spoiler, which of course means I've missed something. Maybe Pete Postlethaite in his final role in The Town?
Predictions:
Christian Bale, The Fighter
Andrew Garfield, The Social Network
Jeremy Renner, The Town
Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
I thought there were six fighting for five slots for awhile, but if I am correct about Steinfeld moving up to lead, then there are five nominees: the same five who were nominated for the Golden Globes. If Steinfeld stays in this category, then I then Weaver is out of luck in the film almost no one saw (the other four are in likely picture nominees)
Predictions:
Amy Adams, The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech
Mila Kunis, Black Swan
Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom
We got here one mortal lock, three highly probables, and one totally wide open slot.
The mortal lock is Colin Firth. He will win this category. The three highly probables are Jesse Eisenberg, James Franco, and Jeff Bridges. All have the right combination of indicators.
The fifth slot could be something completely out of left field. Many are assuming Robert Duvall for Get Low because ... well, because he's Duvall (a very good reason, mind you). But did enough people see the film? The performance in a probable best picture nominee is Mark Wahlberg in The Fighter, but its less showy than his three likely to be nomnated co-stars, which will hurt. Then there is previous nominee Ryan Gosling for Blue Valentine, also a relatively small film. Given all the marks these three contenders get, I'm going to go out on a limb here, and predict the small film's performance (by a previous winner) that seems to be gathering some late momentum.
Predictions:
Javier Bardem, Biutiful
Jeff Bridges, True Grit
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Colin Firth, The King's Speech
James Franco, 127 Hours
BEST ACTRESS
The two Golden Globe winners are locks, and I can't see Lawrence missing either. Many have the last two slots going to Michelle WIlliams for Blue Valentine and Nicole Kidman for Rabbit Hole. Both are strong actresses in relatively small films. But I think they are fighting for only one slot, and I give Williams the edge as her film has been more successful, and because at the Golden Globes, I felt the applause for her was heavier than that for Kidman. The voters for the Globes may not vote for the Oscars, but many of the audience members do.
So why do I see only one slot available? Because I sense Academy voters rebelling at the most obvious category fraud this year. Hailee Steinfeld is in nearly every scene of True Grit. But she's a teenager, so the studio has pushed her for supporting. The same thing happened with Keisha Castle-Hughes a few years ago, and she ended up in lead for Whale Rider. I suspect the same thing happens for Steinfeld.
Predictions:
Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
I'm going with five favorites from five predited best picture nominees. I can't find a spoiler, which of course means I've missed something. Maybe Pete Postlethaite in his final role in The Town?
Predictions:
Christian Bale, The Fighter
Andrew Garfield, The Social Network
Jeremy Renner, The Town
Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
I thought there were six fighting for five slots for awhile, but if I am correct about Steinfeld moving up to lead, then there are five nominees: the same five who were nominated for the Golden Globes. If Steinfeld stays in this category, then I then Weaver is out of luck in the film almost no one saw (the other four are in likely picture nominees)
Predictions:
Amy Adams, The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech
Mila Kunis, Black Swan
Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom
Oscar Nominations predictions: Picture
Six films this year seem to have dominated the discussion: The Social Network, The King's Speech, The Fighter, Black Swan, Inception, and True Grit. I believe if there were only five picture nominess, they would come out of this group. I believe the majority of the awards will go to these six films. They are all shoo-ins.
Two other films seem to be almost assumed in the race by most, and I see no reason to disagree: The Kids Are All Right and Toy Story 3. The first is an independent film done with stars and the politics will help it with the liberal-leaning Academy, and with 10 nominees, it appears there will be a Pixar slot until the time when (if?) they stumble. It wasn't this year: Toy Story 3 has a definite fan base.
Which leaves two slots. I whiffed on my choices for the two final slots this year. I see the contenders for these two slots as The Town, 127 Hours, Winter's Bone, Blue Valentine, and The Ghost Writer. I think that the Hollywood people of the Academy will lean to the solid studio film in The Town. Of the four indies I have down, I think the film with the most passionate following is Winter's Bone.
It shocks me that I have not ended up predicting 127 Hours, but ultimately, its box office was deidedly underwhelming, and its target audience are most likely to favor other films on the list, most notably Inception and The Social Network. In an auteur-heavy year, I think the Oscar-winning director from two years ago (127 Hours' Dany Boyle) will be sitting out this year's race.
The predictions:
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
The Social Network
The Town
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone
Two other films seem to be almost assumed in the race by most, and I see no reason to disagree: The Kids Are All Right and Toy Story 3. The first is an independent film done with stars and the politics will help it with the liberal-leaning Academy, and with 10 nominees, it appears there will be a Pixar slot until the time when (if?) they stumble. It wasn't this year: Toy Story 3 has a definite fan base.
Which leaves two slots. I whiffed on my choices for the two final slots this year. I see the contenders for these two slots as The Town, 127 Hours, Winter's Bone, Blue Valentine, and The Ghost Writer. I think that the Hollywood people of the Academy will lean to the solid studio film in The Town. Of the four indies I have down, I think the film with the most passionate following is Winter's Bone.
It shocks me that I have not ended up predicting 127 Hours, but ultimately, its box office was deidedly underwhelming, and its target audience are most likely to favor other films on the list, most notably Inception and The Social Network. In an auteur-heavy year, I think the Oscar-winning director from two years ago (127 Hours' Dany Boyle) will be sitting out this year's race.
The predictions:
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
The Social Network
The Town
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone
Saturday, January 15, 2011
Golden Globes
Yes, they are silly. Yes, they are corrupt. But they are also entertaining, so I'll watch.
And predicting can be tough, because the Hollywood Foreign Press Association has conflicting motives. They like stars. OK, they are blinded by them. How else can you explain the nominations this year for Angelia Jolie and Halle Berry? But they also like to show off their acumen, so sometimes they try to prove it by some early awards to up and commers. And then sometimes they are just inexplicable. We'll see hwat they are this year.
I am restricting myself to the 14 movie categories. I just don't know enough about the TV shows to make a good prediction. Although I am rooting for Temple Grandin.
These categories are in the order they are presented on the awards' official website.
BEST PICTURE DRAMA
I think the two heavyweights here are The King's Speech and The Social Network. Neither would surprise me. I'm going with The King's Speech.
BEST ACTRESS DRAMA
Natalie Portman in The Black Swan. Her main competition for the Oscar is in the comedy category.
BEST ACTOR DRAMA
Whenever someone is a heavy favorite for the Oscar the globes tend to want to say then knew it too. Colin Firth is a heavy favorite this year for The King's Speech.
BEST PICTURE COMEDY/MUSCIAL
The Kids Are Alright is great. Three of the nominees are middling, and I;m not sure what The Tourist ranks as. I hope the great film wins.
BEST ACTRESS COMEDY/MUSICAL
Yje other Oscar favorite for best actress is Annette Bening for The Kids Are Alright. I expect her here as well.
BEST ACTOR COMEDY/MUSICAL
Oh dear. None of the guys is a serious contender for the Oscars. With Johnny Depp double nominated, I believe he will win, for the better film, Alice in Wonderland.
BEST ANIMATED FILM
Toy Story 3 in a walk.
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
The most acclaimed is Biutiful, so that's the prediction.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
This may be the most wide open category, as I can see any of the five winning. I'll go with the most out of left field, Jacki Weaver for Animal Kingdom.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
For the most tranformative performance of the bunch, the unrecognizable Christian Bale for The Fighter.
BEST DIRECTOR
Here's where I see a split vote from best picture drama. The flashier is David Fincher for The Social Network.
BEST SCREENPLAY
Going with the most famous, Aaron Sorkin for The Social Network.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
If they stay traditional, it's The King's Speech.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
The Burlesque double nominations here give me paude, but I see a reward for Disney's return to form, and a win for "I See The Light" from Tangled.
...and the envelopes are now sealed. We'll see what happens.
And predicting can be tough, because the Hollywood Foreign Press Association has conflicting motives. They like stars. OK, they are blinded by them. How else can you explain the nominations this year for Angelia Jolie and Halle Berry? But they also like to show off their acumen, so sometimes they try to prove it by some early awards to up and commers. And then sometimes they are just inexplicable. We'll see hwat they are this year.
I am restricting myself to the 14 movie categories. I just don't know enough about the TV shows to make a good prediction. Although I am rooting for Temple Grandin.
These categories are in the order they are presented on the awards' official website.
BEST PICTURE DRAMA
I think the two heavyweights here are The King's Speech and The Social Network. Neither would surprise me. I'm going with The King's Speech.
BEST ACTRESS DRAMA
Natalie Portman in The Black Swan. Her main competition for the Oscar is in the comedy category.
BEST ACTOR DRAMA
Whenever someone is a heavy favorite for the Oscar the globes tend to want to say then knew it too. Colin Firth is a heavy favorite this year for The King's Speech.
BEST PICTURE COMEDY/MUSCIAL
The Kids Are Alright is great. Three of the nominees are middling, and I;m not sure what The Tourist ranks as. I hope the great film wins.
BEST ACTRESS COMEDY/MUSICAL
Yje other Oscar favorite for best actress is Annette Bening for The Kids Are Alright. I expect her here as well.
BEST ACTOR COMEDY/MUSICAL
Oh dear. None of the guys is a serious contender for the Oscars. With Johnny Depp double nominated, I believe he will win, for the better film, Alice in Wonderland.
BEST ANIMATED FILM
Toy Story 3 in a walk.
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
The most acclaimed is Biutiful, so that's the prediction.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
This may be the most wide open category, as I can see any of the five winning. I'll go with the most out of left field, Jacki Weaver for Animal Kingdom.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
For the most tranformative performance of the bunch, the unrecognizable Christian Bale for The Fighter.
BEST DIRECTOR
Here's where I see a split vote from best picture drama. The flashier is David Fincher for The Social Network.
BEST SCREENPLAY
Going with the most famous, Aaron Sorkin for The Social Network.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
If they stay traditional, it's The King's Speech.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
The Burlesque double nominations here give me paude, but I see a reward for Disney's return to form, and a win for "I See The Light" from Tangled.
...and the envelopes are now sealed. We'll see what happens.
Thursday, January 13, 2011
So now what?
I don't really do New Year's resolutions. I do think it is a logical time to reassess my life, and to figure out what I need to change.
The two things I am focuses on is my fitness and this blog, niether of which have been getting the attention I've wanted. I say my fitness because though I am indeed overweight, and not happy about that, the basic problem is I have not been exercising enough. So this week I have started the PTI workout, which consists of trying to do as much distance on my exercise bike while watching the show PTI on ESPN.
As for this blog, I chose to try and write every Sunday, but that hasn't worked. I wanted to provide myself the chance to comment on whatever, and I wanted to try and do that in a weekly column. But that became a restraint. So I won't just try to do posts just on Sunday. If an idea hits me, I'll write on it and that time. I am still going to refer to it as Sunday Scribblings. And if I succeed in writing more, I'll move it back to Sundays.
So not what? First, Golden Globe predictions, since the show is this week. Soon after, Oscar nomination predictions. And after that, I'll post my 2010 top ten list. In between, I'll start posting reviews. While posting reviews of the movies I'm currently watching, I'll start posting reviews of the movies I saw last year but never provided comments, beginning with my list movies and Disney movies seen.
I hope.
The two things I am focuses on is my fitness and this blog, niether of which have been getting the attention I've wanted. I say my fitness because though I am indeed overweight, and not happy about that, the basic problem is I have not been exercising enough. So this week I have started the PTI workout, which consists of trying to do as much distance on my exercise bike while watching the show PTI on ESPN.
As for this blog, I chose to try and write every Sunday, but that hasn't worked. I wanted to provide myself the chance to comment on whatever, and I wanted to try and do that in a weekly column. But that became a restraint. So I won't just try to do posts just on Sunday. If an idea hits me, I'll write on it and that time. I am still going to refer to it as Sunday Scribblings. And if I succeed in writing more, I'll move it back to Sundays.
So not what? First, Golden Globe predictions, since the show is this week. Soon after, Oscar nomination predictions. And after that, I'll post my 2010 top ten list. In between, I'll start posting reviews. While posting reviews of the movies I'm currently watching, I'll start posting reviews of the movies I saw last year but never provided comments, beginning with my list movies and Disney movies seen.
I hope.
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