Oscar predictions 2012

Yes, I'm waiting until the last minute. But I'm still on time: the show isn't until tonight. So here goes:

BEST PICTURE: The Artist

It is indeed rare when an early front runner never loses the top ranking, but that is indeed what happened this year when The Artist came out of Cannes looking like the film to beat and never lost that status. As a valentine to early sound era Hollywood it hits the Academy target as a bullseye. Hugo, as a valentine to film preservation, is the spoiler and would have won many years (including last year). But I think the tiebreaker is The Artist is seen as more fun than Hugo.

BEST DIRECTOR: Micel Hazanivicius, The Artist

To pull off a black and white film with (almost) no dialogue and in the technical limitations of that era and yet not for a second make it feel like homework is an achievement worth rewarding. Martin Scorsese also came from the heart with Hugo, but this seems to me to be the year of The Artist.

BEST ACTOR: Jean Dujardin, The Artist

Brad Pitt and George Clooney are excellent, as always. But to pull of The Artist without dialogue is a one of a kind achievement.

BEST ACTRESS: Viola Davis, The Help

A popular prediction is Streep. But The Iron Lady isn't one of her best roles, and The Help may well be the best role Davis has ever had. She's a great actress and she's due.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Christopher Plummer, Beginners

He's Hollywood royalty. He's never won. And he's really good in this role. The easiest pick of the night.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Octavia Spencer, The Help

In a role designed for her, she knocks it out of the park. She's up against some great performances, but none of them have ever materialized as competition.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Midnight in Paris

The Artist definitely could make Hazanivicius a double winner, but this seems like a good place to reward Woody Allen, who hasn't won in over 25 years.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: The Descendants

I see this a a race between former winners for Best Picture nominees who will likely not win any other category. While Moneyball may be the tougher task (the novel was a bunch of statistics -- dramatize that!), Oscar voters usually vote with their heart. The heartstrings are best plucked by The Descendants.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: Rango

Terrible field this year. Rango wins essentially by default.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: Paradise Lost 3

The always wacky documentary branch omitted a lot of deserving nominees, but the totality of the Paradise Lost achievement, helping to free three men wrongfully convicted of three horrible murders, seems to me like the kind of achievement Oscar would like to reward.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE: A Separation

The most acclaim and the only film in this category with another nomination (for screenplay) makes this the obvious choice.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: The Tree of Life

Emmanuel Lubetzki is waaaay overdue. And while dramatically people have issue with the film, no one disputes it is frequently stunningly beautiful.

BEST FILM EDITING: The Artist

Probably the toughest category of the night. I could build a good case for Hugo, Moneyball, and The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo. But when in doubt in this category, do for the Best Picture winner. So that's what I'm doing.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: The Artist

Any claim that The Artist is the best picture goes hand and hand with its score, which is essential to the film's mood.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG: "Man or Muppet", The Muppets

The Rio song is forgettable, and the other songs that deserved to be nominated were "Life's a Happy Song" and "Pictures in My Head", both from The Muppets. So here's one for the song that should win.

BEST ART DIRECTION: Hugo

Dante Ferretti is a legend in his field. And his work on Hugo was stunning, to boot.

BEST COSTUMES: Hugo

Sandy Powell is a legend in her field. And her work on Hugo was stunning, to boot.

BEST MAKEUP: The Iron Lady

In an odd field for this category, I'm guessing transforming Meryl Streep into Margaret Thatcher will be rewarded.

BEST SOUND EDITING: War Horse
BEST SOUND MIXING: War Horse

I'm guessing epic sweep gets rewarded. If the awards goes to Most Sound (and it often does) then Transformers 3 wins here.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: Rise of the Planet of the Apes

Usually, this goes to the film that shows us something new. The effects of the apes was a leap forward from previous motion capture efforts.

BEST ANIMATED SHORT: La Luna

Pixar may have missed with its feature this year, but it sure didn't with its short. None of the other nominees were as good as Pixar's two Toy Story shorts, for that matter.

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT: The Shore

The funniest, the most emotional, and from director Terry George, who made the well respected feature Hotal Rwanda. Its a stron field, but this clearly the stongest.

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT: Saving Face

This is a two film race with "The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom" but I'm going with the film that illuminates a subject, survivors of acid attacks in Pakistan, that is much less well known than the Japanese tsunami and how its culture survived.