Oscar Nominations predictions: Picture

Six films this year seem to have dominated the discussion: The Social Network, The King's Speech, The Fighter, Black Swan, Inception, and True Grit. I believe if there were only five picture nominess, they would come out of this group. I believe the majority of the awards will go to these six films. They are all shoo-ins.

Two other films seem to be almost assumed in the race by most, and I see no reason to disagree: The Kids Are All Right and Toy Story 3. The first is an independent film done with stars and the politics will help it with the liberal-leaning Academy, and with 10 nominees, it appears there will be a Pixar slot until the time when (if?) they stumble. It wasn't this year: Toy Story 3 has a definite fan base.

Which leaves two slots. I whiffed on my choices for the two final slots this year. I see the contenders for these two slots as The Town, 127 Hours, Winter's Bone, Blue Valentine, and The Ghost Writer. I think that the Hollywood people of the Academy will lean to the solid studio film in The Town. Of the four indies I have down, I think the film with the most passionate following is Winter's Bone.

It shocks me that I have not ended up predicting 127 Hours, but ultimately, its box office was deidedly underwhelming, and its target audience are most likely to favor other films on the list, most notably Inception and The Social Network. In an auteur-heavy year, I think the Oscar-winning director from two years ago (127 Hours' Dany Boyle) will be sitting out this year's race.

The predictions:

Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
The Social Network
The Town
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone