Oscar Nominations Predictions: Acting

BEST ACTOR

We got here one mortal lock, three highly probables, and one totally wide open slot.

The mortal lock is Colin Firth. He will win this category. The three highly probables are Jesse Eisenberg, James Franco, and Jeff Bridges. All have the right combination of indicators.

The fifth slot could be something completely out of left field. Many are assuming Robert Duvall for Get Low because ... well, because he's Duvall (a very good reason, mind you). But did enough people see the film? The performance in a probable best picture nominee is Mark Wahlberg in The Fighter, but its less showy than his three likely to be nomnated co-stars, which will hurt. Then there is previous nominee Ryan Gosling for Blue Valentine, also a relatively small film. Given all the marks these three contenders get, I'm going to go out on a limb here, and predict the small film's performance (by a previous winner) that seems to be gathering some late momentum.

Predictions:

Javier Bardem, Biutiful
Jeff Bridges, True Grit
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Colin Firth, The King's Speech
James Franco, 127 Hours


BEST ACTRESS

The two Golden Globe winners are locks, and I can't see Lawrence missing either. Many have the last two slots going to Michelle WIlliams for Blue Valentine and Nicole Kidman for Rabbit Hole. Both are strong actresses in relatively small films. But I think they are fighting for only one slot, and I give Williams the edge as her film has been more successful, and because at the Golden Globes, I felt the applause for her was heavier than that for Kidman. The voters for the Globes may not vote for the Oscars, but many of the audience members do.

So why do I see only one slot available? Because I sense Academy voters rebelling at the most obvious category fraud this year. Hailee Steinfeld is in nearly every scene of True Grit. But she's a teenager, so the studio has pushed her for supporting. The same thing happened with Keisha Castle-Hughes a few years ago, and she ended up in lead for Whale Rider. I suspect the same thing happens for Steinfeld.

Predictions:

Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

I'm going with five favorites from five predited best picture nominees. I can't find a spoiler, which of course means I've missed something. Maybe Pete Postlethaite in his final role in The Town?

Predictions:

Christian Bale, The Fighter
Andrew Garfield, The Social Network
Jeremy Renner, The Town
Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

I thought there were six fighting for five slots for awhile, but if I am correct about Steinfeld moving up to lead, then there are five nominees: the same five who were nominated for the Golden Globes. If Steinfeld stays in this category, then I then Weaver is out of luck in the film almost no one saw (the other four are in likely picture nominees)

Predictions:

Amy Adams, The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech
Mila Kunis, Black Swan
Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom