One week later, reading everyone's thoughts and reviews, I wanted to weigh in with a few thoughts of this year's show.
I'm tired of reading that this year's show was not edgy enough. That's a complaint if the Spirit Awards are too safe. This is the Oscars. This is a show everyone and their grandmother watches. Safe is what you are going to get. Their are elements within the show that can be pushed, but ultimately there are too many people to be pleased for edgy to work.
One element the show got right this year was the speeches. This has been a pet peeve of mine for years, and this year, the show finally let them breathe a little. It has been proved year after year: give the winners 30 seconds, and you get a list of names. Give them 45 seconds, and you get something clever in the speech. This year, speech after speech contained something entertaining.
Ellen DeGeneres started, well, terrible. Her monologue was not very good. But the rest of the night, with a drop in here and there, she was excellent. That's what a host should do.
Which brings me to the first change I would make. Let's get rid of the opening monologue. It adds nothing but time. It generally means 20-25 minutes before the first award. Kill it.
Imagine this next year, if the host walked out and said, "Welcome to the Oscars. And now, here's Jared Leto to present the first award for supporting actress." It would bring down the house.
The other option depends on the best song nominees. If one of the songs fits -- and Happy did this year -- just open with a song nominee that gets the night going with some energy.
It is also time to lose the montages. Chuck Workman used to do a beautiful job with different themes, but I am assuming given the drop in quality that he isn't doing the work anymore. Workman made it look easy. The past two years have decisively proved it isn't.
But I would not lose the In Memorium segment. It has become part of every award show, and at this point would be seen as a slap in the face to those who left us in the past year. I thought they did fine with it this year, and Bette Midler's performance after the list of names worked for me.
If I am producing, my focus would be on the past year. (In Mermorium therefore fits.) Drop the production numbers for films from the past. The production numbers should simply be the best song nominees. It should be said, the production on all four this year was exemplary.
Want to add a little more? Focus on the nominees. Show about 20 seconds of each editing nominee showing what they had to work with. Show what were special effects and how they were applied. Break down the soundtracks of the sound nominees. Truly celebrate the nominated work, instead of a film, however great, that is 75 years old.
It isn't rocket science. But with a little tweaking, I think what was a good show this year could be a great show.
Sunday, March 9, 2014
Sunday, March 2, 2014
Oscar blog
I am going to try something different this year. I am going to type comments as the Oscar show goes on.
First off, while I half watch the arrivals and ABC proves again that Jimmy Kimmel is still not very funny, I .. sorry, that Kimmel bit was so tired I lost my train of thought.
If I just wanted to be snide, I would point out that Will Smith just showed up a day after he won a Razzie, his son won another, and they won three. But that would be mean.
I thought last year's show was terrible, so I am worried how tonight will turn out.
My general plan is to post during the commercials. We'll see. Maybe it will be as much of a train wreck as last year's show.
Dove Chocolates using a famous dead celebrity to sell chocolate. Since Audrey Hepburn died of cancer, are we supposed to think of cancer when we see Dove Chocolate?
Wait a minute, ABC is trying to sell Resurrection by random tweets. So we are supposed to watch a show which has not yet aired because random people were impressed by its ads. Uh huh.
I really have nothing much to say about the opening monologue. It wasn't really bad, but wasn't really that great, either. Let's put it this way: the Golden Globes had the better opening.
Supporting Actor: Jared Leto (I am 1 for 1 in predictions.) Great tribute to his mom. Great message to the world. This is what happens when you allow the speeches breathe.
Oh great, a montage for animation which takes us nowhere. Not a good sign.
Pharrell Williams is cool. And that performance fit him to a T. With four good song nominees this year, we should be in good hands.
Costumes: The Great Gatsby (1 for 2). Baz Luhrman's wife wins Oscar #3. Richly deserved.
Make-up and Hairstyling: Dallas Buyers Club (2 for 3) Perfect example for voting for the film, not the category. I don't enjoy the Jackass movies, but the old man makeup on Johnny Knoxville was more award deserving.
I want scenes to illustrate the nominees, not trailers. I have already seen the trailers many tines.
What Ellen DeGeneres does so well is to keep the show fun. She is as good at that as anyone on the planet.
Animated Short: Mr. Hublot. (2 for 4) The only film that I thought could upset Get a Horse actually pulls it off. It is a charming film.
Animated Feature: Frozen. (3 for 5) Because it was the obvious choice.
And a second montage, which is something about heroism, but is poorly focused. Great.
Visual Effects: Gravity (4 for 6) Because it was obviously the best this year.
Two for two for great song presentation. Just as Happy needed to be big, The Moon Song needed to be quiet and gentle. Now would they release a soundtrack to Her already?
Live Action Short: Helium (4 for 7) I am so happy to have been wrong about my prediction, as this was my favorite short out of all three short categories this year.
Documentary Short: The Lady in Number 6. (5 for 8) This is a vote for the subject, because the filmmaking did not deserve the award.
Documentary Feature: 20 Feet From Stardom. (5 for 9) I incorrectly guessed the Academy would go for issues rather than entertainment.
Foreign Film: The Great Beauty. (6 for 10)
Three for three in song presentations. I am assuming the producers did whatever U2 wanted, because they are U2.
Sound Mixing: Gravity (7 for 11)
Sound Editing: Gravity (8 for 12)
Supporting Actress: Lupita Nyong'o (9 for 13) I strongly believe this is the birth of a major star.
Cinematography: Gravity (10 for 14) I have been rooting for Emanuel Lubezki to win an Oscar since A Little Princess.
Editing: Gravity (10 for 15) Here's Gravity's first win I did not predict. Any other surprises coming?
I admit I wasn't looking forward to a Wizard of Oz tribute, but Pink knocked that out of the park. Much better than the Chicago tribute last year.
Production Design: The Great Gatsby (11 for 16) And two Oscars tonight for Catherine Martin to match the two she won for Moulin Rouge!
Oh goody, another montage. How is The Terminator heroic?
As I expected, Bette Midler is singing Wind Beneath My Wings as part of the In Memoriam segment. I think this is a good choice not only because of the lyrics but because this song did originate in the movie Beaches.
Original Score: Gravity (11 for 17) Wow, I misread the tea leaves on this one. I thought it was too soon for Steven Price to win an Oscar.
Original Song: Let It Go, Frozen (12 for 18) And the award for the speech of the night goes to...
Adapted Screenplay: 12 Years a Slave (12 for 19) I went out on a limb predicting Philomena and the branch just broke off.
Original Screenplay: Her (12 for 20) Well, it is original. Actually, I'm thrilled for Spike Jonze. One of the truly original film artists now has an Oscar.
Director: Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity (13 for 21) I have been rooting for this win since A Little Princess.
Actress: Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine (14 for 22)
Actor: Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club (15 for 23)
Picture: 12 Years a Slave (16 for 24)
I believe Gravity just tied the record with most wins (7) without a best picture win.
First off, while I half watch the arrivals and ABC proves again that Jimmy Kimmel is still not very funny, I .. sorry, that Kimmel bit was so tired I lost my train of thought.
If I just wanted to be snide, I would point out that Will Smith just showed up a day after he won a Razzie, his son won another, and they won three. But that would be mean.
I thought last year's show was terrible, so I am worried how tonight will turn out.
My general plan is to post during the commercials. We'll see. Maybe it will be as much of a train wreck as last year's show.
Dove Chocolates using a famous dead celebrity to sell chocolate. Since Audrey Hepburn died of cancer, are we supposed to think of cancer when we see Dove Chocolate?
Wait a minute, ABC is trying to sell Resurrection by random tweets. So we are supposed to watch a show which has not yet aired because random people were impressed by its ads. Uh huh.
I really have nothing much to say about the opening monologue. It wasn't really bad, but wasn't really that great, either. Let's put it this way: the Golden Globes had the better opening.
Supporting Actor: Jared Leto (I am 1 for 1 in predictions.) Great tribute to his mom. Great message to the world. This is what happens when you allow the speeches breathe.
Oh great, a montage for animation which takes us nowhere. Not a good sign.
Pharrell Williams is cool. And that performance fit him to a T. With four good song nominees this year, we should be in good hands.
Costumes: The Great Gatsby (1 for 2). Baz Luhrman's wife wins Oscar #3. Richly deserved.
Make-up and Hairstyling: Dallas Buyers Club (2 for 3) Perfect example for voting for the film, not the category. I don't enjoy the Jackass movies, but the old man makeup on Johnny Knoxville was more award deserving.
I want scenes to illustrate the nominees, not trailers. I have already seen the trailers many tines.
What Ellen DeGeneres does so well is to keep the show fun. She is as good at that as anyone on the planet.
Animated Short: Mr. Hublot. (2 for 4) The only film that I thought could upset Get a Horse actually pulls it off. It is a charming film.
Animated Feature: Frozen. (3 for 5) Because it was the obvious choice.
And a second montage, which is something about heroism, but is poorly focused. Great.
Visual Effects: Gravity (4 for 6) Because it was obviously the best this year.
Two for two for great song presentation. Just as Happy needed to be big, The Moon Song needed to be quiet and gentle. Now would they release a soundtrack to Her already?
Live Action Short: Helium (4 for 7) I am so happy to have been wrong about my prediction, as this was my favorite short out of all three short categories this year.
Documentary Short: The Lady in Number 6. (5 for 8) This is a vote for the subject, because the filmmaking did not deserve the award.
Documentary Feature: 20 Feet From Stardom. (5 for 9) I incorrectly guessed the Academy would go for issues rather than entertainment.
Foreign Film: The Great Beauty. (6 for 10)
Three for three in song presentations. I am assuming the producers did whatever U2 wanted, because they are U2.
Sound Mixing: Gravity (7 for 11)
Sound Editing: Gravity (8 for 12)
Supporting Actress: Lupita Nyong'o (9 for 13) I strongly believe this is the birth of a major star.
Cinematography: Gravity (10 for 14) I have been rooting for Emanuel Lubezki to win an Oscar since A Little Princess.
Editing: Gravity (10 for 15) Here's Gravity's first win I did not predict. Any other surprises coming?
I admit I wasn't looking forward to a Wizard of Oz tribute, but Pink knocked that out of the park. Much better than the Chicago tribute last year.
Production Design: The Great Gatsby (11 for 16) And two Oscars tonight for Catherine Martin to match the two she won for Moulin Rouge!
Oh goody, another montage. How is The Terminator heroic?
As I expected, Bette Midler is singing Wind Beneath My Wings as part of the In Memoriam segment. I think this is a good choice not only because of the lyrics but because this song did originate in the movie Beaches.
Original Score: Gravity (11 for 17) Wow, I misread the tea leaves on this one. I thought it was too soon for Steven Price to win an Oscar.
Original Song: Let It Go, Frozen (12 for 18) And the award for the speech of the night goes to...
Adapted Screenplay: 12 Years a Slave (12 for 19) I went out on a limb predicting Philomena and the branch just broke off.
Original Screenplay: Her (12 for 20) Well, it is original. Actually, I'm thrilled for Spike Jonze. One of the truly original film artists now has an Oscar.
Director: Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity (13 for 21) I have been rooting for this win since A Little Princess.
Actress: Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine (14 for 22)
Actor: Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club (15 for 23)
Picture: 12 Years a Slave (16 for 24)
I believe Gravity just tied the record with most wins (7) without a best picture win.
Oscar Nominated Shorts (Documentary)
Cavedigger
In many shorts, we are introduced to an interesting character that it is a privilege to get to know. Ra Paulette is one of those characters. We get to know an artist who creates beautiful caves, but also a stubborn artist who struggles for funding. Its only weakness is the feeling that the short is not as Important as other shorts. Grade: A
Facing Fear
A look like at a hate crime, where a group nearly beat a man to death for being gay. What is remarkable is that the story has changed where 20 years later one of the primary perpetrators has come to meet and get to know the victim, and how forgiveness has allowed both men to grow. Grade: A+
The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life
Alice Herz Sommer was 109 years old when this short was made (she died last week). A forse of nature, she shows how a positive outlook and love of music helped her survive the Holocaust. She's an amazing person, and I'm glad I got a sense of her in this short. However. There is a hole in the documentary. Nothing is told of her life after surviving the horrors up to living in Britain, other than her son being a successful musician and that he has died. What else happened? What is in the documentary is great, but part of story remains untold. Grade: A-
Karama Has No Walls
Actual footage of Change Square in 2011, and the peaceful uprising in Yemen during the Arab Spring of 2011, has a you are there feel that is hard shake. The film helps place a context by interviewing the two Yemeni cameramen of what they witnessed and experienced, and with the fathers of two victims. This is essential viewing for an understanding of Yemen, and a puts a human face on the situation that the news coverage simply could not. Grade: A+
Prison Terminal: The Last Days of Private Jack Hall
The basic subject, a hospice in the Iowa state prison system, is interesting. I found myself more interested not in the title subject, a convicted murderer dying of natural causes, than in the convicted felons who work in the hospice. How did convicted murderers become caretakers, helping fellow inmates die with dignity? That's a question that remains answered. Grade: B+
I loved two of these shorts. Facing Fear and Karama Has No Walls put a human face on two stories in a unique and powerful way. The footage of the uprising in Karama Has No Walls is for me the tiebreaker of a close call for me.
This is going to sound cynical, but say Holocaust and here come the Oscars. I believe the voters will mistake voting for a film as voting for a film's subject. They will see the most worthy subject as The Lady in Number 6 and vote for her, missing the fact that the filmmaking is not as good as in three of the other nominees.
In many shorts, we are introduced to an interesting character that it is a privilege to get to know. Ra Paulette is one of those characters. We get to know an artist who creates beautiful caves, but also a stubborn artist who struggles for funding. Its only weakness is the feeling that the short is not as Important as other shorts. Grade: A
Facing Fear
A look like at a hate crime, where a group nearly beat a man to death for being gay. What is remarkable is that the story has changed where 20 years later one of the primary perpetrators has come to meet and get to know the victim, and how forgiveness has allowed both men to grow. Grade: A+
The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life
Alice Herz Sommer was 109 years old when this short was made (she died last week). A forse of nature, she shows how a positive outlook and love of music helped her survive the Holocaust. She's an amazing person, and I'm glad I got a sense of her in this short. However. There is a hole in the documentary. Nothing is told of her life after surviving the horrors up to living in Britain, other than her son being a successful musician and that he has died. What else happened? What is in the documentary is great, but part of story remains untold. Grade: A-
Karama Has No Walls
Actual footage of Change Square in 2011, and the peaceful uprising in Yemen during the Arab Spring of 2011, has a you are there feel that is hard shake. The film helps place a context by interviewing the two Yemeni cameramen of what they witnessed and experienced, and with the fathers of two victims. This is essential viewing for an understanding of Yemen, and a puts a human face on the situation that the news coverage simply could not. Grade: A+
Prison Terminal: The Last Days of Private Jack Hall
The basic subject, a hospice in the Iowa state prison system, is interesting. I found myself more interested not in the title subject, a convicted murderer dying of natural causes, than in the convicted felons who work in the hospice. How did convicted murderers become caretakers, helping fellow inmates die with dignity? That's a question that remains answered. Grade: B+
I loved two of these shorts. Facing Fear and Karama Has No Walls put a human face on two stories in a unique and powerful way. The footage of the uprising in Karama Has No Walls is for me the tiebreaker of a close call for me.
This is going to sound cynical, but say Holocaust and here come the Oscars. I believe the voters will mistake voting for a film as voting for a film's subject. They will see the most worthy subject as The Lady in Number 6 and vote for her, missing the fact that the filmmaking is not as good as in three of the other nominees.
Oscar Nominated Shorts (Live Action)
That Wasn't Me
There have been shorts that try to take on the lawlessness in some portions of Africa. Those shorts tried to be overly clever. This is much more in your face, and is all the more powerful for it. But it is tough to watch, including the shocking murder of a major character. This puts human faces on the situation in a way never done before. Grade: A+
Just Before Losing Everything
Here's a short which takes awhile to reveal its subject: a family going into hiding to escape an abusive husband/father. By focusing on the minor details, the film builds and builds to an almost unbearable tension. Grade: A+
Helium
A somewhat strange new janitor at a hospital bonds with a child dying a cancer. Though the description of Helium, a more interesting afterlife than Heaven, he helps find the boy the courage to die. Part of the power of the film is the visions of Helium while the janitor describes it, but there is no way to describe how emotional the end is. Grade: A+
Do I Have to Take Care of Everything?
Imagine the first minutes of Four Weddings and a Funeral, only in Finnish and with a family with two children. That's the basic idea of a short with imaginative gag after imaginative gag. Laugh out loud funny throughout. Grade: A
The Voorman Problem
A one joke premise involving a strange character in a British prison. It's not a particularly funny joke. The one short with a recognizable lead (Martin Freeman) is the one short this year that does not deserve its nomination. Grade: C+
For me, the first three shorts are of extraordinary quality. Helium is the one that touched me the most emotionally. That is my vote.
I could see any of the three winning the Oscar. The tiebreaker is the politics, and an endorsement of Amnesty International, which helped produce That Wasn't Me, is the tiebreaker.
There have been shorts that try to take on the lawlessness in some portions of Africa. Those shorts tried to be overly clever. This is much more in your face, and is all the more powerful for it. But it is tough to watch, including the shocking murder of a major character. This puts human faces on the situation in a way never done before. Grade: A+
Just Before Losing Everything
Here's a short which takes awhile to reveal its subject: a family going into hiding to escape an abusive husband/father. By focusing on the minor details, the film builds and builds to an almost unbearable tension. Grade: A+
Helium
A somewhat strange new janitor at a hospital bonds with a child dying a cancer. Though the description of Helium, a more interesting afterlife than Heaven, he helps find the boy the courage to die. Part of the power of the film is the visions of Helium while the janitor describes it, but there is no way to describe how emotional the end is. Grade: A+
Do I Have to Take Care of Everything?
Imagine the first minutes of Four Weddings and a Funeral, only in Finnish and with a family with two children. That's the basic idea of a short with imaginative gag after imaginative gag. Laugh out loud funny throughout. Grade: A
The Voorman Problem
A one joke premise involving a strange character in a British prison. It's not a particularly funny joke. The one short with a recognizable lead (Martin Freeman) is the one short this year that does not deserve its nomination. Grade: C+
For me, the first three shorts are of extraordinary quality. Helium is the one that touched me the most emotionally. That is my vote.
I could see any of the three winning the Oscar. The tiebreaker is the politics, and an endorsement of Amnesty International, which helped produce That Wasn't Me, is the tiebreaker.
Oscar predictions
NOTE: I'm pressing the deadline, so I am posting my predictions first and writing my explanation as the day goes on.
Best Picture
For awhile, it looked like American Hustle could play spoiler. That time has passed. And at no time have six of the nominees ever even seen the frontrunner status.
Since last fall, the two frontrunners have been 12 Years a Slave and Gravity. I suspect it is close. But I felt in the fall that the most likely result is a split in which 12 Years a Slave won picture and Gravity wins director. And ultimately, that is still my prediction.
When push comes to shove, the academy tends to pick the film that it views as Important. In a close race, I think that's the direction they go. And this year, that would be 12 Years a Slave.
Director
Just like last year, I think the winner is the director who had the most technologically complicated film but still delivered heart and emotion. Last year, that was Ang Lee for The Life of Pi. This year, that is Alfonzo Cuaron for Gravity.
Actor
The original thought that Chiwetel Ejiofor was going to be hard to beat for 12 Years a Slave has been trumped by the amazing two year run that Matthew McConaughey has had. Tonight, it will be announce that he won for Dallas Buyers Club. But really, he will win for Lincoln Lawyer, Bernie, Killer Joe, Mud, Magic Mike, The Wolf of Wall Street, an Dallas Buyers Club.
Actress
Cate Blanchett was the early favorite for Blue Jasmine. Then the scandal hit over the film's writer director. The Academy voters thought about Amy Adams, but I think ultimately the Academy has decided that Mia Farrow is not going to decide this category. Blanchett wins.
Supporting Actor
Jared Leto took this race over as soon as the movie was released. I think Barkhad Abdi got some consideration, but Dallas Buyers Club is beloved by many, and Leto is the heart of the film.
Supporting Actress
Lupita Nyong'o wins this, I believe, because her performance reminds me not of a newcomer who has one great performance and then disappears. This performance reminds me of Ralph Fiennes, who was so amazing in Schindler's List but that was just the first chapter of a long and distinguished career. Nyong'o's performance in 12 Years a Slave will be remembered as win we were introduced to a major talent.
Animated Feature
Frozen in a landslide (or maybe an avalanche).
Cinematography
Emmanuel Lubezki has shot all of Alfonzo Cuaron's films and the last three Terrance Malck films. So he is overdue for an Oscar. And Gravity is an amazing visual achievement. So he wins.
Costume Design
The look of American Hustle is a big part of its appeal, and to honor its 70s costumes is one way to pay it proper tribute.
Documentary Feature
The Act of Killing and 20 Feet from Stardom are so different. My gut says Act of Killing is too unique to be overlooked.
Documentary Short Subject
The subject of The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life is amazing, and voters will mistake a vote for this film as a vote for her.
Editing
In a category which I view as a complete toss-up, I am guessing that the tension created in the assemblage of Captain Phillips will be awarded.
Foreign Language Film
The Great Beauty seems to be the best fit.
Makeup and Hairstyling
Dallas Buyers Club is the most liked film in this category, so voters will vote for the film rather than the work.
Music (Original Score)
This year most reminds me of the years Randy Newman won original song. There is not an overwhelming choice. Yes, I know Gravity is the favorite. But who is Steven Price? And Alexandre Desplat is overdue, but Philomena is not one of his memorable scores. So that leads me to Randy's cousin, Thomas Newman. Amazingly, he has never won, despite nominations for Little Women, The Shawshank Redemption, Unstrung Heroes, American Beauty, Road to Perdition, Finding Nemo, Lemony Snicket, The Good German, Wall-E and Skyfall. His score for Saving Mr. Banks pays tribute to Mary Poppins. I think it springs the upset.
Music (Original Song)
No upset here. Let It Go is integral to the success of this year's best animated feature, Frozen
Production Design
This is one category that sometime wins for most production design.The Great Gatsby's production design did more to create a time and place.
Short Film (Animated)
Get a Horse! is a technical marvel, a loving tribute to the Disney tradition, a very funny short, and the obvious winner in this category.
Short Film (Live Action)
There are three shorts which have serious elements and are the race this year. Aquel No Era Yo (That Wasn't Me) captures the horror of African warfare in a way that many shorts have failed. Helium and Just Before Losing Everything could play spoiler.
Sound Editing
Gravity's sound design is integral to its success.
Sound Mixing
Gravity's sound design is integral to its success.
Visual Effects
Gravity in the easiest call of the night. This race was over as soon as the trailer was released.
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
This is my biggest upset pick of the night. The clear favorite is John Ridley's script for 12 Years a Slave. But I have this sense that voters love Philomena, and want to award it somewhere. This appears to be the best place to do that. Steve Coogan was so essential to the success of this film, and to award his writing seems to me to be the way to recognize the film as a whole.
Writing (Original Screenplay)
This is a race between two best picture nominees, Her and American Hustle. Both give an opportunity to award a visionary director. I am picking American Hustle because I sense more love to that film, and because David O. Russell deserves something for directing this, The Fighter, and Silver Linings Playbook in the past five years.
Best Picture
For awhile, it looked like American Hustle could play spoiler. That time has passed. And at no time have six of the nominees ever even seen the frontrunner status.
Since last fall, the two frontrunners have been 12 Years a Slave and Gravity. I suspect it is close. But I felt in the fall that the most likely result is a split in which 12 Years a Slave won picture and Gravity wins director. And ultimately, that is still my prediction.
When push comes to shove, the academy tends to pick the film that it views as Important. In a close race, I think that's the direction they go. And this year, that would be 12 Years a Slave.
Director
Just like last year, I think the winner is the director who had the most technologically complicated film but still delivered heart and emotion. Last year, that was Ang Lee for The Life of Pi. This year, that is Alfonzo Cuaron for Gravity.
Actor
The original thought that Chiwetel Ejiofor was going to be hard to beat for 12 Years a Slave has been trumped by the amazing two year run that Matthew McConaughey has had. Tonight, it will be announce that he won for Dallas Buyers Club. But really, he will win for Lincoln Lawyer, Bernie, Killer Joe, Mud, Magic Mike, The Wolf of Wall Street, an Dallas Buyers Club.
Actress
Cate Blanchett was the early favorite for Blue Jasmine. Then the scandal hit over the film's writer director. The Academy voters thought about Amy Adams, but I think ultimately the Academy has decided that Mia Farrow is not going to decide this category. Blanchett wins.
Supporting Actor
Jared Leto took this race over as soon as the movie was released. I think Barkhad Abdi got some consideration, but Dallas Buyers Club is beloved by many, and Leto is the heart of the film.
Supporting Actress
Lupita Nyong'o wins this, I believe, because her performance reminds me not of a newcomer who has one great performance and then disappears. This performance reminds me of Ralph Fiennes, who was so amazing in Schindler's List but that was just the first chapter of a long and distinguished career. Nyong'o's performance in 12 Years a Slave will be remembered as win we were introduced to a major talent.
Animated Feature
Frozen in a landslide (or maybe an avalanche).
Cinematography
Emmanuel Lubezki has shot all of Alfonzo Cuaron's films and the last three Terrance Malck films. So he is overdue for an Oscar. And Gravity is an amazing visual achievement. So he wins.
Costume Design
The look of American Hustle is a big part of its appeal, and to honor its 70s costumes is one way to pay it proper tribute.
Documentary Feature
The Act of Killing and 20 Feet from Stardom are so different. My gut says Act of Killing is too unique to be overlooked.
Documentary Short Subject
The subject of The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life is amazing, and voters will mistake a vote for this film as a vote for her.
Editing
In a category which I view as a complete toss-up, I am guessing that the tension created in the assemblage of Captain Phillips will be awarded.
Foreign Language Film
The Great Beauty seems to be the best fit.
Makeup and Hairstyling
Dallas Buyers Club is the most liked film in this category, so voters will vote for the film rather than the work.
Music (Original Score)
This year most reminds me of the years Randy Newman won original song. There is not an overwhelming choice. Yes, I know Gravity is the favorite. But who is Steven Price? And Alexandre Desplat is overdue, but Philomena is not one of his memorable scores. So that leads me to Randy's cousin, Thomas Newman. Amazingly, he has never won, despite nominations for Little Women, The Shawshank Redemption, Unstrung Heroes, American Beauty, Road to Perdition, Finding Nemo, Lemony Snicket, The Good German, Wall-E and Skyfall. His score for Saving Mr. Banks pays tribute to Mary Poppins. I think it springs the upset.
Music (Original Song)
No upset here. Let It Go is integral to the success of this year's best animated feature, Frozen
Production Design
This is one category that sometime wins for most production design.The Great Gatsby's production design did more to create a time and place.
Short Film (Animated)
Get a Horse! is a technical marvel, a loving tribute to the Disney tradition, a very funny short, and the obvious winner in this category.
Short Film (Live Action)
There are three shorts which have serious elements and are the race this year. Aquel No Era Yo (That Wasn't Me) captures the horror of African warfare in a way that many shorts have failed. Helium and Just Before Losing Everything could play spoiler.
Sound Editing
Gravity's sound design is integral to its success.
Sound Mixing
Gravity's sound design is integral to its success.
Visual Effects
Gravity in the easiest call of the night. This race was over as soon as the trailer was released.
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
This is my biggest upset pick of the night. The clear favorite is John Ridley's script for 12 Years a Slave. But I have this sense that voters love Philomena, and want to award it somewhere. This appears to be the best place to do that. Steve Coogan was so essential to the success of this film, and to award his writing seems to me to be the way to recognize the film as a whole.
Writing (Original Screenplay)
This is a race between two best picture nominees, Her and American Hustle. Both give an opportunity to award a visionary director. I am picking American Hustle because I sense more love to that film, and because David O. Russell deserves something for directing this, The Fighter, and Silver Linings Playbook in the past five years.
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