Analyzing box office: let's look at the box office for the first half of this year, to see what lessons can be learned. I'm going to take the predictions from Box Office Prophets, and the box office from Box Office Mojo. I take the predictions not to point out how many mistakes were made, but to show how expectations were missed so frequently this year. Films are listed in order of release.
13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Bengazi
predicted: $48 million opening; $125 million total
actual: $16 million opening; $52 million total
Bengazi has become so politically charged that many were skittish about this film. While I believe there is space in the market for an intelligently made political film, no one expects intelligently made from Michael Bay.
Norm of the North
predicted: $15 million opening; $43 million total
actual: $6 million opening; $17 million total
Moviegoers have caught up with how bad these cheaply made cartoons are.
Ride Along 2
predicted: $37 million opening; $87 million total
actual: $35 million opening; $90 million total
Unlike many sequels this year, people were ready for the future adventures of the Brothers-in-law.
The 5th Wave
predicted: $13 million opening; $29 million total
actual: $10 million opening; $34 million total
The Young Adult novel adaption craze is flickering out. As yet another project underperforms, it appears that Harry Potter and The Hunger Games are the outliers and the audience for the rest is limited.
Fifty Shades of Black
predicted: $14 million opening; $27 million total
actual: $5 million opening; $11 million total
Moviegoers have caught up with how bad these cheaply made Wayans comedies are.
Jane Got A Gun
predicted: $8 million opening; $24 million total
actual: $835 thousand opening; 1.5 million total
Proof there is such a thing as bad publicity.
Kung Fu Panda 3
predicted: $38 million opening; $131 million total
actual: $41 million opening; $143 million total
A surprise January release, this mild success suggests that the assumption that family animation only works at certain places in the calendar might be a false assumption. This may be seen as a disappointment to some, but is in line with the drop from the first installment to the second.
The Choice
predicted: $10 million opening; $30 million total
actual: $6 million opening; $18 million total
The assumption seems to have been that if the film adapts Nicholas Sparks, it is money in the bank. This film suggests that some star power might be needed in the cast. This film sure didn't have any.
Hail, Caesar!
predicted: $18 million opening; $58 million total
actual: $11 million opening; $30 million total
The Coens may be beloved by critics, but this one may have been too inside Hollywood for general audiences.
Pride and Prejudice and Zombies
predicted: $13 million opening; $32 million total
actual: $5 million opening; $10 million total
If you want to make a one-joke movie, you need a better joke.
Deadpool
predicted: $58 million opening; $151 million total
actual: $132 million opening; $363 million total
How to be Single
predicted: $20 million opening; $48 million total
actual: $17 million opening; $46 million total
Zoolander 2
predicted: $45 million opening; $105 million total
actual: $13 million opening; $28 million total
Gods of Egypt
predicted: $21 million opening; $43 million total
actual: $14 million opening; $31 million total
Triple 9
predicted: $11 million opening; $23 million total
actual: $6 million opening; $12 million total
London Has Fallen
predicted: $35 million opening; $83 million total
actual: $21 million opening; $62 million total
Whiskey Tango Foxtrot
predicted: $7 million opening; $21 million total
actual: $7 million opening; $23 million total
Zootopia
predicted: $54 million opening; $215 million total
actual: $75 million opening; $341 million total
10 Cloverfield Lane
predicted: $20 million opening; $45 million total
actual: $24 million opening; $72 million total
The Brothers Grimsby
predicted: $10 million opening; $25 million total
actual: $3 million opening; $6 million total
The Bronze
no prediction
actual $386 thousand opening; $615 thousand total
Here's the list of 1000 screen openings with worse per screen averages: Transylmania, Delgo, Creature, and the grand champion, Oogieloves in the BIG Balloon Adventure. That's it. Sometimes, you got to know your audience. This was always going to be a cult film but nothing more.
The Divergent Series: Allegiant
predicted: $38 million opening; $85 million total
actual: $29 million opening; $66 million total
Don't split the final book of your series unless you are absolutely sure your audience will follow you. This was a series which needed to complete and get out of the way before starting to lose money. Now it is an incomplete series with a sure money loser left in its final film. Whoops.
Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice
predicted: $200 million opening; $575 million total
actual: $166 million opening; $330 million total
God's Not Dead 2
predicted: $15 million opening; $48 million total
actual: $7 million opening; $20 million total
The Boss
predicted: $27 million opening; $73 million total
actual: $23 million opening; $63 million total
Hardcore Henry
predicted: $10 million opening; $28 million total
actual: $5 million opening; $9 million total
If your film is supposedly groundbreaking, first make sure it isn't headache inducing.
Barbershop: The Next Cut
predicted: $33 million opening; $71 million total
actual: $20 million opening; $54 million total
The Jungle Book
predicted: $34 million opening; $101 million total
actual: $103 million opening; $362 million total
The Huntsman: Winter's War
predicted: $29 million opening; $81 million total
actual: $19 million opening; $48 million total
Keanu
predicted: $8 million opening; $22 million total
actual: $9 million opening; $20 million total
Mother's Day
predicted: $12 million opening; $43 million total
actual: $8 million opening; $32 million total
Ratchet & Clank
predicted: $6 million opening; $15 million total
actual: $4 million opening; $8 million total
See: my analysis of Norm of the North
Captain America: Civil War
predicted: $199 million opening; $458 million total
actual: $179 million opening; $406 million total
While apetitites
Money Monster
predicted: $13 million opening; $30 million total
actual: $14 million opening; $40 million total
The Angry Birds Movie
predicted: $35 million opening; $140 million total
actual: $38 million opening; $106 million total
Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising
predicted: $41 million opening; $100 million total
actual: $21 million opening; $55 million total
The Nice Guys
predicted: $21 million opening; $51 million total
actual: $11 million opening; $36 million total
Alice Through the Looking Glass
predicted: $68 million opening; $172 million total
actual: $26 million opening; $76 million total
X Men: Apocalypse
predicted: $115 million opening; $264 million total
actual: $65 million opening; $155 million total
Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping
predicted: $14 million opening; $38 million total
actual: $4 million opening; $9 million total
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows
predicted: $73 million opening; $200 million total
actual: $35 million opening; $81 million total
The Conjuring 2
predicted: $41 million opening; $90 million total
actual: $40 million opening; $101 million total
Now You See Me 2
predicted: $43 million opening; $100 million total
actual: $22 million opening; $64 million total
Warcraft
predicted: $45 million opening; $101 million total
actual: $24 million opening; $47 million total
Central Intelligence
predicted: $45 million opening; $125 million total
actual: $35 million opening; $125 million total
Finding Dory
predicted: $133 million opening; $399 million total
actual: $135 million opening; $469 million total
Pixar still rules.
Free State of Jones
predicted: $8 million opening; $32 million total
actual: $7 million opening; $20 million opening
People don't want to do homework in the summer.
Independence Day: Resurgence
predicted: $100 million opening; $255 million total
actual: $41 million opening; $101 million total
While not paying Will Smith whatever he wanted was a big mistake, it wasn't the biggest. The biggest mistake was casting two new pilots without the charisma of Harry Connick Jr, let alone Smith.
The Neon Demon
no prediction
opening: $589 thousand opening; $1.3 million total
Nicolas Winding Refn may be an intriguing topic for critics, but mainstream audiences don't care.
The Shallows
predicted: $12 million opening; $29 million total
actual: $16 million opening; $53 million total
The BFG
predicted: $32 million opening; $125 million total
actual: $18 million opening; $52 million total
The Legend of Tarzan
predicted: $24 million opening; $59 million total
actual: $38 million opening; $121 million total
The Purge: Election Year
predicted: $35 million opening; $78 million total
actual: $31 million opening; $78 million total
Even though it isn't my cup of tea, I admire how writer-director James DeMonaco has taken this idea and come at it in three different ways. These are sequels that are not just retreads, which is why they succeed. Also, the film was well marketed.
Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates
predicted: $14 million opening; $42 million total
actual: $16 million opening; $43 million total
The Secret Lives of Pets
predicted: $53 million opening; $162 million total
actual: $104 million opening; $296 million total
Illumination Studios is now up in the level with DreamWorks animation as hitmakers, just behind Disney and Pixar.
