Oscar nominations predictions: everything else

Brief comments are after the predictions in each category.

BEST DIRECTOR

Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
Joel & Ethan Coen, True Grit
David Fincher, The Social Network
Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
Christopher Nolan, Inception

I see the Coens in a slight upset over David O. Russell for The Fighter. Russell's burned a lot of bridges, and the Coens are beloved.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech

Another Year and Blue Valentine seem to be the possible spoilers.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The Ghost Writer
The Social Network
True Grit
Toy Story 3
Winter's Bone

I'm really shaky about The Ghost Writer, but it seemed to me more of a writer's picture. The Town or 127 Hours would not surprise me here.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

How to Train Your Dragon
Tangled
Toy Story 3

It is easy to pick the top five, but only three will be nominated as not enough films were submitted. The other two fighting Tangled for the fifth slot are The Illusionist and Despicable Me.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Incendies (Canada)
In a Better World (Denmark)
Dogtooth (Greece)
Biutiful (Mexico)
Life Above All (South Africa)

Unsure about everything except Biutiful. The other finalists are Outside the Law (Algeria), Confessions (Japan), Even the Rain (Spain), and Simple Simon (Sweden).

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Inside Job
Restrepo
The Tillman Story
Waiting for Superman
William Kustler: Disturbing the Universe

Exit Through the Gift Shop is on many radars because it was so well made, but it broke too many rules for the tradintional Academy. I would be delighted to be wrong about this.

BEST ART DIRECTION

Alice in Wonderland (Robert Stromberg)
Inception (Guy Dyas)
The King's Speech (Eve Stewart)
Shutter Island (Dante Ferretti)
True Grit (Jess Gonchor)

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Black Swan (Matthew Libatique)
Inception (wally Pfister)
Shutter Island (Robert Richardson)
The Social Network (Jeff Cronenweth)
True Grit (Roger Deakins)

Shutter Island is a bit of a reach, but Richardson is well respected, with 6 former nominations. The other likely candidates are The King's Speech and 127 Hours.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Alice in Wonderland (Colleen Atwood)
Black Swan (Amy Westcott)
Burlesque (Michael Kaplan)
The King's Speech (Jenny Beavan)
The Tempest (Sandy Powell)

They tend to lean towards flashy in this category, so I almost omitted The King's Speech. I am omitting True Grit for this reason, and am taking the flashier work in Burlesque and The Tempest.

BEST EDITING

Black Swan (Andrew Weisblum)
Inception (Lee Smith)
The King's Speech (Tariq Anwar)
Shutter Island (Thelma Schoonmaker)
The Social Network (Kirk Baxter and Angus Wall)

Shutter Island is a bit of a reach, but Schoonmaker is a legend.

BEST MAKEUP

Alice in Wonderland
Joanh Hex
The Wolf Man

The other semifinalists are Barney's Version, The Fighter, True Grit, and The Way Back.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Alice in Wonderland (Danny Elfman)
Inception (Hans Zimmer)
The King's Speech (Alexandre Desplat)
Never Let Me Go (Rachel Portman)
The Social Network (Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross)

It would be nice if Daft Punk were to be recognized for Tron Legacy, but a techno score has no chance. I'm going out on a limb predicting the stogy music branch might nominate Trent Reznor.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

"You Haven't Seen the Last of Me Yet" (Burlesque)
"I See the Light" (Tangled)
"Shine" (Waiting for Superman)

This category can have 2-5 nominees, if enough songs are seen as quality. I am predicting only three will. If there are five nominees, I predict the other two nominees would be "We Belong Together" from Toy Story 3 and "Chanson Illusionist" from The Illusionist.

BEST SOUND MIXING

Black Swan
Inception
The Social Network
Tron Legacy
True Grit

A nod for Shutter Island would not surprise me. But I couldn't figure out which one of the above five it would beat.

BEST SOUND EDITING

Inception
127 Hours
Tron Legacy
True Grit
Toy Story 3

Other possibles here are Hoe to Train Your Dragon and The Social Network.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deadly Hallows, Part 1
Inception
Iron Man 2
Tron Legacy

The other two semifinalists are Hereafter and Scott Pilgrim Vs The World.