Oscar predictions preview

As we hit the end of the year, it is closing in on the time to set Oscar predictions. I always wait until the Golden Globes ceremonies to set my predictions, not for the awards winners at the Globes, which are meaningless, but for the audience reactions, as a lot of Academy members are in the audience. Ang Lee gets huge applause in 2000? Gonna be a good year for Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon. David Carradine gets little applause for his nomination for Kill Bill? Scratch him off the Oscar list. Usually a couple of tweaks come from reactions in that room.

But I digress. This post is to sum up where I see the Best Picture race right now. With the rule change allowing anywhere between five and ten nominees, this is making predictions hard. The rules declare a film must gain a certain percentage of first place votes, so the key is to find films people love, not just like. So here's my list of expected nominees, though not final, just what I view at this point.

The Artist. When this debuted at Cannes, it vaulted to the top of almost every Oscar prognosticator's list. And it hasn't moved. The Academy is generally older, a bit conservative in artistic tastes, but a bit liberal polically. So a silent film, which pays tribute to a golden age of cinema? Sold.

The Descendants. Alexander Payne's last film, Sideways, scored multiple nominations. This film is more emotional in a way that generally hooks in Academy voters, while retaining the excellance that, in my humble opinion, has been in every one of Payne's films. Another lock.

The Help. This is the third lock after The Descendants and The Artist. A bit traditional for some critics, but that's a plus for the traditional Academy. It takes on a topic, segregation in the South, which has been awarded by past Oscars. And the acting is of high caliber, liekly looking at three nominated actresses, that its on every member need to see list.

Hugo. Here we start getting out of the lock category, but I think Hugo should be in. The subplot about film preservation help a lot, especially since it echos Martin Scorsese's favorite cause. But most importaqntly Scorsese shows us all how 3D is supposed to be used, to open up the screen rather than just make an advertising gimmic.

Midnight in Paris. Woody Allen has a long successful history at the Oscars. This was a surprisingly sucessful film, both artisticly and at the box office. There are enough woody fans in the Academy to put this forward, I believe.

The Tree of Life. And here's where the predictions get tougher. Part of it is that there is definitely nothing like this film in the other possible nominees list (or really, ever). Terence Malick has been in the best picture race before, for The Thin Red Line. This has NO chance to win best picture. But I believe there is enough of a fan base to get a nomination.

Moneyball. My shakiest pick. It doesn't quite match up with the other films, but has a lot of respect, especially from the writers. (Read the book sometime. How do you adapt that?) Of there is one film I can see gather enough of the younger voters in the Academy, this would be it. And this is a director who has had a best picture nom before (Capote).

That brings my current total to seven. Where's War Horse? While I would not be massively surprised to see it nominated, I think ultimately it came out in the wrong year. I think the majority of people who are nostalgic for classic moviemaking are voting for The Artist or Hugo. And The Help takes votes away as well. To be nominated, a film has to be the first choice of enough voters, and ultimately I belive War Horse is a second or third choice to those films.

At this point, I see nothing else gathering up enough steam. But I reserve the right to change my mind. For now, that is how I see best picture.