Before starting on the categories, a couple of notes. Sometimes it is the campaign, not the movie. That was notable this year, as I believe Lincoln had a real chance to win many Oscars this year -- it has 12 nominations -- but instead will go down I believe with one of the worst win percentages in Oscar history, going 1 for 12 in category wins.
The campaign for Lincoln seemed to be saying that you were a lesser person if you prefer another film. In other words, it gave off just the self-important vibe that the film did such a great job of avoiding. Whoever ran that campaign blew a significant opportunity.
And now, the categories:
BEST PICTURE
Funny how when the nominations came out how Argo seemed to be an also-ran. Then it won pretty much every precursor from that point forward. Now it seems clear if the Academy still allowed write-ins, Ben Affleck would win best director. But he will win one Oscar, as he is one of the nominated producers.
Winner: Argo
BEST DIRECTOR
Since write-ins are not allowed, none of the precursors matter. Instead of looking at who will win, first it is worth looking at who is going to lose.As Lincoln has faded, I believe Spielberg's chances have faded. A also have a hard time thinking this will go to the directors of an art house film or a foreign film. That leaves David O. Russell and Ang Lee. At that point, who had the greater achievement? While Russell did a fantastic job with his actors, and could win, I am going with the director who took an unfilmable book and got it filmed. It is the more impressive achievement.
Winner: Ang Lee, Life of Pi
BEST ACTOR
This category has not bunched an inch. Daniel Day Lewis disappeared into a tough role. It's an amazing achievement.
Winner: Daniel Day Lewis, Lincoln
BEST ACTRESS
When the nominations came out, this looked like Jessica Chastain had it in the bag. Then Jennifer Lawrence appeared to have momentum. And they both are still in the race. But I felt months ago that the older academy would move in the direction of the realistic portrayal of old age, and I have come back all the way around to that thinking.
Winner: Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Tommy Lee Jones appeared to be the front runner, and indeed he won the SAG award. But he never disappeared into the role, and so I think people are looking for other options. The reports I read has one actor as clearly doing the most campaigning, and the fact he is a living legend who hasn't won in 30 years doesn't hurt either.
Winner: Robert DeNiro, Silver Linings Playbook
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
This race was over as soon as the "I Dreamed a Dream" performance was seen in the first trailer last summer.
Winner: Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
I have been predicting an upset for David O Russell in this category for awhile, but I'm backing off the prediction. Argo has to win something other than best picture, right? And the fact it won the WGA award seems to make this a possible win.
Winner: Argo
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Been going back and forth over the two best picture nominees in this category. But while Amour feels to me more of a director's achievement, Django Unchained seems more of a writer's.
Winner: Django Unchained
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Wreck It Ralph has seemed like the front runner for awhile, but this is the Oscars, and they tend to be older. Video Games aren't its forte. I'll go for the more classic period setting.
Winner: Brave
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Amour has never surrendered the front runner status it has had all season.
Winner: Amour
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Searching for Sugarman has never surrendered the front runner status it has had all season.
Winner: Searching for Sugarman
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Richard Parker will eat you if you think he is not the greatest achievement of the year.
Winner: Life of Pi
BEST SOUND MIXING
This is usually a good category for musicals, and the added difficulty of capturing the singing live tips the scale.
Winner: Les Miserables
BEST SOUND EDITING
Skyfall has a real chance here, but I think Life of Pi gets the votes Hugo got in the technicals: when in doubt, it was good in everything.
Winner; Life of Pi
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
A genuine toss-up this year, as Life of Pi and Les Miserables would not surprise me. But sometimes different is what seems to tip the scales, and that would mean one film this year.
Winner: Anna Karenina
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
This is the easiest pick of the night.
Winner: Skyfall (Skyfall)
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Thomas Newman is so overdue, that it is tempting to pick Skyfall. But a lot of times, the first time nominee who finally gets through is rewarded. And it doesn't hurt that it's really good work.
Winner: Life of Pi
BEST MAKEUP
When in doubt, predict most makeup.
Winner: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
BEST FILM EDITING
This is usually one of the strongest corollaries with Best Picture. And I think Argo's going to win Best Picture...
Winner: Argo
BEST COSTUMES
Period piece? Check. Rather ornate? Check. Calls attention to itself? Check.
Winner: Anna Karenina
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
I've been all prepared to predict Roger Deakins would finally win for Skyfall. But as Life of Pi has surged, I've changed my mind. Also, the academy has previously voted for Avatar and Hugo, so really good 3D work seems to be a good way to win here.
Winner: Life of Pi
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
I really think a lot of times the subject matter is more important in this category than the film itself.
Winner: Mondays at Racine
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
Four foreign shorts that are varying degrees of dreary and depressing, and a livelier American short which is just more fun to watch.
Winner: Curfew
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
If you saw it front of Wreck It Ralph, you know that it's an easy vote this year.
Winner: Paperman
Saturday, February 23, 2013
Tuesday, February 19, 2013
Best Picture Showcase (preface)
I have enjoyed going to the AMC Theatres Best Picture Showcase in the past few years. It gives me a chance to re-visit the nominees, and maybe catch up with one I had yet to see, in preperation for the main event.\
This year, Regal decided to have a showcase too. They are closer to me, and they were charging ten dollars less. So I went to the theater last week to buy my tickets, and the manager told me they weren't having it. This was five days before the first showing. I sent an e-mail to the Regal website to complain. I've yet to get a response more than a week later.
But they were showing the films.No event, so introductions, and no trivia contests (which I love, because I usually get at least one prize). But with no advertisement, and no one even aware it was booked, the theater did massive business both days I went. I shared a theater both days with my best friend, my daughter, and three other people.
Both days, the movie started late because the management forgot the movie was to start. One intermission was cut short with no advance announcement so that we could get back on schedule, causing me to miss the opening sequence of Les Miserables. Also, the intermissions were only 15 minutes, so no time to go get actual food. AMC has a dinner break each day. Popcorn only for 12 hours is pretty tough.
If Regal didn't want us there, well mission accomplished. We'll be going back to AMC next year.
This year, Regal decided to have a showcase too. They are closer to me, and they were charging ten dollars less. So I went to the theater last week to buy my tickets, and the manager told me they weren't having it. This was five days before the first showing. I sent an e-mail to the Regal website to complain. I've yet to get a response more than a week later.
But they were showing the films.No event, so introductions, and no trivia contests (which I love, because I usually get at least one prize). But with no advertisement, and no one even aware it was booked, the theater did massive business both days I went. I shared a theater both days with my best friend, my daughter, and three other people.
Both days, the movie started late because the management forgot the movie was to start. One intermission was cut short with no advance announcement so that we could get back on schedule, causing me to miss the opening sequence of Les Miserables. Also, the intermissions were only 15 minutes, so no time to go get actual food. AMC has a dinner break each day. Popcorn only for 12 hours is pretty tough.
If Regal didn't want us there, well mission accomplished. We'll be going back to AMC next year.
Saturday, February 2, 2013
Oscar nominations, part 2
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The nominees:
Anna Karenina
Django Unchained
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Skyfall
How I did:
I thought Lincoln wasn't flashy enough to be nominated. I had Argo in its place.
Analysis of Category:
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
The nominees:
Anna Karenina
Les Miserables
Lincoln
Mirror Mirror
Show White and the Huntsman
How I did:
I though Lincoln wasn't flashy enough to be nominated. I had Django Unchained in its place.
Analysis of Category:
BEST FILM EDITING
The nominees:
Argo
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty
How I did:
I thought Skyfall's technical excellence would continue here. I had Skyfall instead of Silver Linings Playbook
Analysis of Category:
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
The nominees:
Hitchcock
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Les Miserables
How I did:
Here, I overestimated Lincoln's appeal. I had Lincoln instead of Hitchcock.
Analysis of Category:
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
The nominees:
Anna Karenina
Argo
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Skyfall
How I did:
I thought Skyfall would be seen as too derivative of other Bond scores, so I had Cloud Atlas instead, probably colored by the fact that's one of only two scores I bought this year (and the other, Haywire, had no chance).
Analysis of Category:
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Do we have to discuss this one? Yikes. I got the two obvious nominees, and missed the others.
The nominees:
(Chasing Ice)
Suddenly (Les Miserables)
(Life of Pi)
Skyfall (Skyfall)
(Ted)
How I did:
The two shoo-ins were Suddenly and Skyfall. Besides them, I had predicted Learn Me Right (Brave), Abraham's Daughter (The Hunger Games0 and Ancora Qui (Django Unchained).
Analysis of Category:
The race is between the two shoo-ins. No one else has ever has a chance.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Anna Karenina
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
How I did:
I thought Life of Pi would be perceived as mostly effects, and The Hobbit had that perception problem and that the first major set piece, the shire, is from another film. But if I was shying away from effects work, I probably shouldn't have then predicted Promethius, which I knew was a gamble. I was surprised my other prediction, Django Unchained, did not get in.
Analysis of category:
BEST SOUND EDITING
The nominees:
Argo
Django Unchained
Life of Pi
Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty
How I did:
Yikes. I got Django Unchained and Skyfall. My other three were The Avengers, Les Miserables, and Promethius.
Analysis of category:
BEST SOUND MIXING
The nominees:
Argo
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Skyfall
How I did:
Just as bad as Sound Mixing. I got Les Miserables and Skyfall. My other three were The Avengers, Django Unchained, and Promethius.
Analysis of category:
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
The nominees:
The Avengers
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Life of Pi
Promethius
Show White and the Huntsman
How I did:
I did not see Snow White as the fifth nominee, nor do I think it deserved it. I think Cloud Atlas deserved it, but I predicted The Dark Knight Rises.
Analysis of category:
The animals are not in the lifeboat, but sure look it. This should be an easy win for Life of Pi.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
The nominees:
Brave
Frankenweenie
ParaNorman
The Pirates! Band of Misfits
Wreck It Ralph
How I did
I did not see The Pirates! in the running. I thought there would be one arthouse slot this year, and I had it occupied by The Painting.
Analysis of category:
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
The nominees:
5 Broken Cameras
The Gatekeepers
How to Survive a Plague
The Invisible War
Searching for Sugar Man
How I did:
I missed 5 Broken Cameras and The Invisible War. I had the wrong sex abuse scandal in Mea Maxima Culpa: Silence in the House of God, and the wrong issue entirely in The House I Live In.
Analysis of category:
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
The nominees:
Amour (Austria)
War Witch (Canada)
No (Chile)
A Royal Affair (Denmark)
Kon-Tiki (Switzerland)
How I did:
Outside of the directing category, the single biggest surprise omission for me was France's The Intouchables, which I thought had the sort of emotional appeal which tends to play well. I also took Sister, from Switzerland. Instead War Witch and Kon-Tiki were nominated.
Analysis of category:
It is hard to imagine Amour, up for picture, director, actress, and screenplay, losing to any of these films, when none of them are nominated in another category.
How I did:
Analysis of Category:
The nominees:
Anna Karenina
Django Unchained
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Skyfall
How I did:
I thought Lincoln wasn't flashy enough to be nominated. I had Argo in its place.
Analysis of Category:
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
The nominees:
Anna Karenina
Les Miserables
Lincoln
Mirror Mirror
Show White and the Huntsman
How I did:
I though Lincoln wasn't flashy enough to be nominated. I had Django Unchained in its place.
Analysis of Category:
BEST FILM EDITING
The nominees:
Argo
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty
How I did:
I thought Skyfall's technical excellence would continue here. I had Skyfall instead of Silver Linings Playbook
Analysis of Category:
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
The nominees:
Hitchcock
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Les Miserables
How I did:
Here, I overestimated Lincoln's appeal. I had Lincoln instead of Hitchcock.
Analysis of Category:
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
The nominees:
Anna Karenina
Argo
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Skyfall
How I did:
I thought Skyfall would be seen as too derivative of other Bond scores, so I had Cloud Atlas instead, probably colored by the fact that's one of only two scores I bought this year (and the other, Haywire, had no chance).
Analysis of Category:
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Do we have to discuss this one? Yikes. I got the two obvious nominees, and missed the others.
The nominees:
(Chasing Ice)
Suddenly (Les Miserables)
(Life of Pi)
Skyfall (Skyfall)
(Ted)
How I did:
The two shoo-ins were Suddenly and Skyfall. Besides them, I had predicted Learn Me Right (Brave), Abraham's Daughter (The Hunger Games0 and Ancora Qui (Django Unchained).
Analysis of Category:
The race is between the two shoo-ins. No one else has ever has a chance.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Anna Karenina
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
How I did:
I thought Life of Pi would be perceived as mostly effects, and The Hobbit had that perception problem and that the first major set piece, the shire, is from another film. But if I was shying away from effects work, I probably shouldn't have then predicted Promethius, which I knew was a gamble. I was surprised my other prediction, Django Unchained, did not get in.
Analysis of category:
BEST SOUND EDITING
The nominees:
Argo
Django Unchained
Life of Pi
Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty
How I did:
Yikes. I got Django Unchained and Skyfall. My other three were The Avengers, Les Miserables, and Promethius.
Analysis of category:
BEST SOUND MIXING
The nominees:
Argo
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Skyfall
How I did:
Just as bad as Sound Mixing. I got Les Miserables and Skyfall. My other three were The Avengers, Django Unchained, and Promethius.
Analysis of category:
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
The nominees:
The Avengers
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Life of Pi
Promethius
Show White and the Huntsman
How I did:
I did not see Snow White as the fifth nominee, nor do I think it deserved it. I think Cloud Atlas deserved it, but I predicted The Dark Knight Rises.
Analysis of category:
The animals are not in the lifeboat, but sure look it. This should be an easy win for Life of Pi.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
The nominees:
Brave
Frankenweenie
ParaNorman
The Pirates! Band of Misfits
Wreck It Ralph
How I did
I did not see The Pirates! in the running. I thought there would be one arthouse slot this year, and I had it occupied by The Painting.
Analysis of category:
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
The nominees:
5 Broken Cameras
The Gatekeepers
How to Survive a Plague
The Invisible War
Searching for Sugar Man
How I did:
I missed 5 Broken Cameras and The Invisible War. I had the wrong sex abuse scandal in Mea Maxima Culpa: Silence in the House of God, and the wrong issue entirely in The House I Live In.
Analysis of category:
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
The nominees:
Amour (Austria)
War Witch (Canada)
No (Chile)
A Royal Affair (Denmark)
Kon-Tiki (Switzerland)
How I did:
Outside of the directing category, the single biggest surprise omission for me was France's The Intouchables, which I thought had the sort of emotional appeal which tends to play well. I also took Sister, from Switzerland. Instead War Witch and Kon-Tiki were nominated.
Analysis of category:
It is hard to imagine Amour, up for picture, director, actress, and screenplay, losing to any of these films, when none of them are nominated in another category.
How I did:
Analysis of Category:
Oscar nominations, part 1
I was without a working modem for about a month, so I was unable to post my nomination predictions before the nominations came out. I did write them down, so you'll just have to take my word that these were my actual guesses. Here we go:
BEST PICTURE
The nominees:
Amour
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty
How I did:
Not bad actually. I correctly had nine nominees this year, and got eight of them correctly. I saw more whimsy in the academy, as I had Moonrise Kingdom nominated, and Django Unchained not. Probably let my opinions get in the way, as I liked Moonrise Kingdom better.
Analysis of category:
The immediate reaction is to anoint the battle between the two films with 10+ nominations, Lincoln and Life of Pi. And both have shots. But clearly Argo, with its guild wins, is gathering steam. There is also a chance that they all knock each other out, and Silver Linings Playbook slips in.
The worst campaign was done by Amour. It still is not on 100 screens. Why are they hiding the film from middle America? It now has lost its chance to become talked about, and is unlucky to escape the Foreign Language Film ghetto to get wins in any other category.
BEST DIRECTOR
The nominees:
Michael Haneke (Amour)
Benh Zeitlin (Beasts of the Southern Wild)
Ang Lee (Life of Pi)
Steven Spielberg (Lincoln)
David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook)
How I did:
Everyone struggled with this category, as surefire shots as Ben Affleck (Argo), Tom Hooper (Les Miserables), and Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thurty) got passed over. I got the Hooper miss correctly, but I had the other two being nominated. I did not think Zeitlin (too green), and Russell would get nominated. Russell has rustled a few feathers over the years, but I guess those features are more in the other branches.
Analysis of category:
The two former winners, Spielberg and Lee, seem to be the most likely winners. I'm leaning towards the Hollywood royalty of Spielberg winning again.
BEST ACTOR
The nominees:
Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook)
Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)
Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables)
Joaquin Phoenix (The Master)
Denzel Washington (Flight)
How I did:
I thought Phoenix's comments about awards, plus the fact that many people did not like his film, would cost him a nomination. I had John Hawkes (The Sessions) nominated instead.
Analysis of category:
Daniel Day-Lewis is one of the few sure things this year.
BEST ACTRESS
The nominees:
Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty)
Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)
Emmanuelle Riva (Amour)
Quvenzhane Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild)
Naomi Watts (The Impossible)
How I did:
I thought the former winner Marion Cotillard (Rust and Bone) was popular enough in Hollywood to get nominated. So I thought the oldest (Riva) and youngest (Wallis) nominees ever were fighting for the last slot, when actually they both beat Cotillard. I had Wallis beating Riva for the final slot.
Analysis of category:
This looks like a battle between Chastain and Lawrence. I think it's about a dead heat between them.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
The nominees:
Alan Arkin (Argo)
Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook)
Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master)
Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln)
Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained)
How I did:
I thought with three nomination caliber performances in Django Unchained, with Samuel L. Jackson and Leonardo Decaprio included, would cancel each other out. I had the fifth slot going to another previous winner, Javier Bardem for Skyfall.
Analysis of category:
All five nominees have won previously. So we don't need to look for anyone being overdue for a win. I think this is a competition between Jones and DeNiro, two key performances in major nominees.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
The nominees:
Amy Adams (The Master)
Sally Field (Lincoln)
Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)
Helen Hunt (The Sessions)
Jacki Weaver (Silver Linings Playbook)
How I did:
One rule for Oscar predictions is that best picture nominees do a little better in other categories than in the other awards, and I missed the most obvious example of it this year, which is Weaver. I had Maggie Smith for The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel instead.
Analysis of category:
Hathaway had this as soon as she finished singing I Dreamed a Dream.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The nominees:
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Lincoln
Life of Pi
Silver Linings Playbook
How I did:
I overrated the Writer's Guild nominations in both writing categories. I had The Perks of Being a Wallflower, which was nominated for a WGA nomination, over WGA ineligible Beasts of the Southern Wild.
Analysis of category:
This would seem to be a good place to reward David O. Russell for co-writing and directing Silver Linings Playbook.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The nominees:
Amour
Django Unchained
Flight
Moonrise Kingdom
Zero Dark Thirty
How I did:
I did correctly see that the WGA ineligible Amour would be nominated, but I threw out Flight when I should have thrown out Looper.
Analysis of category:
Process of elimination can successfully eliminate all five films. This category is wide open.
BEST PICTURE
The nominees:
Amour
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty
How I did:
Not bad actually. I correctly had nine nominees this year, and got eight of them correctly. I saw more whimsy in the academy, as I had Moonrise Kingdom nominated, and Django Unchained not. Probably let my opinions get in the way, as I liked Moonrise Kingdom better.
Analysis of category:
The immediate reaction is to anoint the battle between the two films with 10+ nominations, Lincoln and Life of Pi. And both have shots. But clearly Argo, with its guild wins, is gathering steam. There is also a chance that they all knock each other out, and Silver Linings Playbook slips in.
The worst campaign was done by Amour. It still is not on 100 screens. Why are they hiding the film from middle America? It now has lost its chance to become talked about, and is unlucky to escape the Foreign Language Film ghetto to get wins in any other category.
BEST DIRECTOR
The nominees:
Michael Haneke (Amour)
Benh Zeitlin (Beasts of the Southern Wild)
Ang Lee (Life of Pi)
Steven Spielberg (Lincoln)
David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook)
How I did:
Everyone struggled with this category, as surefire shots as Ben Affleck (Argo), Tom Hooper (Les Miserables), and Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thurty) got passed over. I got the Hooper miss correctly, but I had the other two being nominated. I did not think Zeitlin (too green), and Russell would get nominated. Russell has rustled a few feathers over the years, but I guess those features are more in the other branches.
Analysis of category:
The two former winners, Spielberg and Lee, seem to be the most likely winners. I'm leaning towards the Hollywood royalty of Spielberg winning again.
BEST ACTOR
The nominees:
Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook)
Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)
Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables)
Joaquin Phoenix (The Master)
Denzel Washington (Flight)
How I did:
I thought Phoenix's comments about awards, plus the fact that many people did not like his film, would cost him a nomination. I had John Hawkes (The Sessions) nominated instead.
Analysis of category:
Daniel Day-Lewis is one of the few sure things this year.
BEST ACTRESS
The nominees:
Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty)
Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)
Emmanuelle Riva (Amour)
Quvenzhane Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild)
Naomi Watts (The Impossible)
How I did:
I thought the former winner Marion Cotillard (Rust and Bone) was popular enough in Hollywood to get nominated. So I thought the oldest (Riva) and youngest (Wallis) nominees ever were fighting for the last slot, when actually they both beat Cotillard. I had Wallis beating Riva for the final slot.
Analysis of category:
This looks like a battle between Chastain and Lawrence. I think it's about a dead heat between them.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
The nominees:
Alan Arkin (Argo)
Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook)
Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master)
Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln)
Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained)
How I did:
I thought with three nomination caliber performances in Django Unchained, with Samuel L. Jackson and Leonardo Decaprio included, would cancel each other out. I had the fifth slot going to another previous winner, Javier Bardem for Skyfall.
Analysis of category:
All five nominees have won previously. So we don't need to look for anyone being overdue for a win. I think this is a competition between Jones and DeNiro, two key performances in major nominees.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
The nominees:
Amy Adams (The Master)
Sally Field (Lincoln)
Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)
Helen Hunt (The Sessions)
Jacki Weaver (Silver Linings Playbook)
How I did:
One rule for Oscar predictions is that best picture nominees do a little better in other categories than in the other awards, and I missed the most obvious example of it this year, which is Weaver. I had Maggie Smith for The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel instead.
Analysis of category:
Hathaway had this as soon as she finished singing I Dreamed a Dream.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The nominees:
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Lincoln
Life of Pi
Silver Linings Playbook
How I did:
I overrated the Writer's Guild nominations in both writing categories. I had The Perks of Being a Wallflower, which was nominated for a WGA nomination, over WGA ineligible Beasts of the Southern Wild.
Analysis of category:
This would seem to be a good place to reward David O. Russell for co-writing and directing Silver Linings Playbook.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The nominees:
Amour
Django Unchained
Flight
Moonrise Kingdom
Zero Dark Thirty
How I did:
I did correctly see that the WGA ineligible Amour would be nominated, but I threw out Flight when I should have thrown out Looper.
Analysis of category:
Process of elimination can successfully eliminate all five films. This category is wide open.
Grounhog Day ... again
Last year, I wrote a lengthy post about surviving the Groundhog Day marathon. And whatever any other merits that post had, there was one effect: my 13 year old son read the post. So we decided to go to this year's marathon together. Last night, we got in the car and headed an hour away to Columbus and the Gateway Film Center. The plan was to but our tickets, head across the street for a final meal at Five Guys before the marathon, so we could have some protein before being dependent on concessions all day.
We arrived at 10:15. Unfortunately, I was unable to buy tickets in advance because I did not go to Columbus once last month for movies.Nothing in the January list made me head to Columbus, not Gangster Squad, not The Last Squad, not Texas Chainsaw 3D. This turned out to be a major flaw, as it turned out at 10:15 they were already sold out.
To add insult to injury, Five Guys, which used to stay open to 3 am on Fridays and Saturdays, now closes at 10 pm. So there went our planned late dinner.
We arrived at 10:15. Unfortunately, I was unable to buy tickets in advance because I did not go to Columbus once last month for movies.Nothing in the January list made me head to Columbus, not Gangster Squad, not The Last Squad, not Texas Chainsaw 3D. This turned out to be a major flaw, as it turned out at 10:15 they were already sold out.
To add insult to injury, Five Guys, which used to stay open to 3 am on Fridays and Saturdays, now closes at 10 pm. So there went our planned late dinner.
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