Here's the "big" categories, with commentary after. Note I am alphabetizing the predictions, not ranking the likelihood.
PICTURE
The Artist
The Descendants
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
The Help
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
Moneyball
Given the guild nominations, I have added The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo and subtracted The Tree of Life from my list since my last analysis. I can't see anything else cracking the list besides the seven above, The Tree of Life, or War Horse.
DIRECTOR
Woody Allen (Midnight in Paris)
David Fincher (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo)
Michel Hazanavivius (The Artist)
Alexander Payne (The Descendants)
Martin Scorsese (Hugo)
I can't believe I'm leaving out Terence Malick for The Tree of Life, but I can't figure out how he would replace any of these five. Which means that yes, I am matching the list of the director's guild.
ACTOR
George Clooney (The Descendants)
Leonardo DiCaprio (J. Edgar)
Jean Dujardin (The Artist)
Michael Fassbender (Shame)
Brad Pitt (Moneyball)
Clooney, Dujardin, and Pitt are all shoo-ins, and the three contenders in this category in likely best picture nominees. Fassbender is in a small film, but has had a good year, which often gets rewarded. Most of the other main contenders are in smaller films: Michael Shannon in Take Shelter, Gary Oldman in Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, and Demian Bachir in A Better Life. DiCaprio's film may be considered a disappointment, but it still grossed twice what those three films did combined. So I have DiCaprio almost by default.
ACTRESS
Glenn Close (Albert Nobbs)
Viola Davis (The Help)
Rooney Mara (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo)
Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady)
Michelle Willaims (My Week with Marilyn)
Streep and David are locks. Williams is in a poor performing film, but she abaolutely nails it. Then this gets trickier. I'm very shaky about Close, and would not be surprised is she is out. I've got her in basically by name recognition. Tilda Swinton has made alot of list, but no one has seen We Need to Talk About Kevin. So I have Mara partially due to the film getting several other nods. I considered Charlize Theron, but didn't put her in because Young Adult I don't conceive as well liked.
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Kenneth Branagh (My Week with Marilyn)
Albert Brooks (Drive)
Jonah Hill (Moneyball)
Nick Nolte (Warrior)
Christopher Plummer (Beginners)
Plummer's a shoo-in -- in fact, I've got him winning the award easily. I would be surprised in Branagh and Brooks are passed over, both former nominees. And any misgivings about Hill were washed away by the crowd reaction at the Golden Globes. But that fifth slot has me wavering.
Max von Sydow seemed assured early in Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, but the tide for that film never arrived. Same with another former nominee, Viggo Mortenson in A Dangerous Method. When Young Adult faltered, Patton Oswalt's chances went with it. Same with Armie Hammer in J. Edgar. Robert Forster is great in The Descendants, but has only a couple of scenes. I almost went with Ben Kingsley as Hugo is beloved. But there is a definite buzz around Nolte's performance. So I went with him.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Berenice Bejo (The Artist)
Jessica Chastain (The Help)
Melissa McCarthy (Bridesmaids)
Octavia Spencer (The Help)
Shailene Woodley (The Descendants)
Spencer and Bejo are shoo-ins. Chastain has had a great year, and I think would have been nominated for The Tree of Life had not The Help been in the same year. This has been a good category for comic scene stealers, and that certainly describes McCarthy's performance.
The fifth slot had some big former nominees contending: Janet McTeer in Albert Nobbs, Vanessa Redgrave in Coriolanus, and Carey Mulligan in Shame. But none of their films were big. So I'm going with Woodley, who's in a likely best picture nominee.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Artist (Michel Hazanivicius)
Bridesmaids (Annie Mumolo & Kristen Wiig)
Midnight in Paris (Woody Allen)
A Separation (Asghar Farhadi)
Win Win (Thomas McCarthy & Joe Tibani)
The Artist is getting a ton of nominations and the writers love Woody, so write those two down in ink. Other than supporting actress, this seems the category to honor Bridesmaids' surprise success. McCathy always writes great characters, so I expect that to be honored. And with the fifth category wide open, I did not find any contender strong enough to prevent a surprise foreign nominee in A Separation.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Descendants (Nat Faxon, Alexander Payne, Jim Rash)
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (Stephen Zaillian)
The Help (Tate Taylor)
Hugo (John Logan)
Moneyball (Aaron Sorkin and Steven Zaillian)
Only best picture nominees need apply in my predictions.
Monday, January 23, 2012
Oscar nomination predictions (part 1)
Before I get to the writing, directing and acting categories, not to mention best picture, here is my predictions in the other categories (with some commentary):
ART DIRECTION
The Artist
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part Two
Hugo
The Tree of Life
Wae Horse
Always go for the period pieces. The Artist and Hugo are locks and should fight for the award.
CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Artist
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
The Tree of Life
War Horse
This is one branch that is quite name driven, which is why my one change from the guild nominees is to delete the relative unknown who shot Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy and replace him with the two time Oscar winner who shot War Horse.
COSTUME DESIGN
Anonymous
The Artist
The Help
Hugo
Jane Eyre
Even more beholden to period pieces than the Art Direction branch. If W/E gets in for that reason I may start throwing things.
EDITING
The Artist
Contagion
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Moneyball
My wildcard pick is Contagion, but with multiple storylines balanced its name editor has the best shot that film has of scoring a nom.
MAKEUP
Gainsbourg: A Heroic Life
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
The Iron Lady
Yeah, I haven't heard of it either, but it did make the shortlist, so I expect a little film like Harry Potter has a chance against these two much bigger films.
MUSIC: ORIGINAL SCORE
The Adventures of Tintin
The Artist
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
War Horse
Yes, I am predicting John Williams to get two more nominations in this category. And then have zero chance of winning it.
MUSIC: ORIGINAL SONG
"Lay Your Head Down" (Albert Nobbs)
"The Living Proof" (The Help)
"Life's a Happy Song" (The Muppets)
"Pictures in My Head" (The Muppets)
As a result of a stupid rule change, only two songs from a given movie can be nominated now. That cost The Muppets a nomination, as I believe "Man or Muppet" would have been nominated as well. I can't find any other eligible song that I think will score high enough to be nominated. (The Madonna song which won the Golden Globe is not eligible.) If I were to pick a fifth song, it would be "So Long" from Winnie the Pooh.
SOUND EDITING
The Adventures of Tintin
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Super 8
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
War Horse
With Transformers winning the MOST SOUND award, of course.
SOUND MIXING
Hanna
Hugo
Super 8
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
War Horse
I really hate the sound categories. I have a harder time picking them as any.
VISUAL EFFECTS
Captain America: The First Avenger
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Hugo
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
The Tree of Life
The Apes have the best shot here.
ANIMATED FEATURE
The Adventures of Tintin
Arthur Christmas
Puss in Boots
Rango
Winnie the Pooh
In an off year for animation, I think this year is ripe for a film out of nowhere to be nominated. Problem is, which one? Arrugas (Wrinkles)? Chico & Rita? A Cat in Paris? So instead, above is my timid prediction five studio pictures get nominated.
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Bill Cunningham: New York
Hell and Back Again
Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory
Pina
Project Nim
I chose Hell and Back Again due to subject matter and the other four for their critical acclaim. Which is dangerous in this category, as there is always a bizarre snub.
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Monsieur Lazhar (Canada)
Pina (Germany)
A Separation (Iran)
Footnote (Israel)
In Darkness (Poland)
Heavy favorite A Separation seems to be the one lock in this category.
ART DIRECTION
The Artist
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part Two
Hugo
The Tree of Life
Wae Horse
Always go for the period pieces. The Artist and Hugo are locks and should fight for the award.
CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Artist
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
The Tree of Life
War Horse
This is one branch that is quite name driven, which is why my one change from the guild nominees is to delete the relative unknown who shot Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy and replace him with the two time Oscar winner who shot War Horse.
COSTUME DESIGN
Anonymous
The Artist
The Help
Hugo
Jane Eyre
Even more beholden to period pieces than the Art Direction branch. If W/E gets in for that reason I may start throwing things.
EDITING
The Artist
Contagion
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Moneyball
My wildcard pick is Contagion, but with multiple storylines balanced its name editor has the best shot that film has of scoring a nom.
MAKEUP
Gainsbourg: A Heroic Life
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
The Iron Lady
Yeah, I haven't heard of it either, but it did make the shortlist, so I expect a little film like Harry Potter has a chance against these two much bigger films.
MUSIC: ORIGINAL SCORE
The Adventures of Tintin
The Artist
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
War Horse
Yes, I am predicting John Williams to get two more nominations in this category. And then have zero chance of winning it.
MUSIC: ORIGINAL SONG
"Lay Your Head Down" (Albert Nobbs)
"The Living Proof" (The Help)
"Life's a Happy Song" (The Muppets)
"Pictures in My Head" (The Muppets)
As a result of a stupid rule change, only two songs from a given movie can be nominated now. That cost The Muppets a nomination, as I believe "Man or Muppet" would have been nominated as well. I can't find any other eligible song that I think will score high enough to be nominated. (The Madonna song which won the Golden Globe is not eligible.) If I were to pick a fifth song, it would be "So Long" from Winnie the Pooh.
SOUND EDITING
The Adventures of Tintin
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Super 8
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
War Horse
With Transformers winning the MOST SOUND award, of course.
SOUND MIXING
Hanna
Hugo
Super 8
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
War Horse
I really hate the sound categories. I have a harder time picking them as any.
VISUAL EFFECTS
Captain America: The First Avenger
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Hugo
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
The Tree of Life
The Apes have the best shot here.
ANIMATED FEATURE
The Adventures of Tintin
Arthur Christmas
Puss in Boots
Rango
Winnie the Pooh
In an off year for animation, I think this year is ripe for a film out of nowhere to be nominated. Problem is, which one? Arrugas (Wrinkles)? Chico & Rita? A Cat in Paris? So instead, above is my timid prediction five studio pictures get nominated.
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Bill Cunningham: New York
Hell and Back Again
Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory
Pina
Project Nim
I chose Hell and Back Again due to subject matter and the other four for their critical acclaim. Which is dangerous in this category, as there is always a bizarre snub.
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Monsieur Lazhar (Canada)
Pina (Germany)
A Separation (Iran)
Footnote (Israel)
In Darkness (Poland)
Heavy favorite A Separation seems to be the one lock in this category.
Monday, January 16, 2012
The Adventures of Tintin (2011)
When a film is directed by Steven Spielberg, there is a level of expectation that comes with it. He has been so good for so long, that excellence is assumed. So when he delivers a good, but not great, film there is a bit of a letdown, even though if the film were from someone else you would leave the theatre fully satisfied.
That is precisely the problem with The Adventures of Tintin. It's a lot of fun, with high-flying adventure and breakneck pacing; a film that takes joy with using the motion capture technology to the best of its ability. (However, it must be said that the 3D is an afterthought. I saw it in 3D and it added nothing.)
For me, what keeps the film from reaching the skies if the opening. I have very little knowledge of Tintin, other than my favorite rock group in '80s took there name from supporting characters (Thompson Twins). The film was off and running before I knew who this Tintin is and whatever his dog is named.
So I felt like I had began reading a book at chapter two. That left me not experiencing the movie, like the way one wraps you up when it really works. Instead, I was watching it.
But there is a lot to admire. I mentioned the motion capture earlier. There is an unbroken shot used for an action sequence which would be impossible to do in live action. It is truly something to see. About halfway through that sequence, I began to laugh, just due to the crazyness of it all. This may be the best swooping shot of 2011 (not directed by Martin Scorsese).
The voice work is solid across the board, but Andy Serkis has to be singled out. He is having a high old time as the captain who, to put it mildly, likes his drink. The character is a bit broad for my tastes, but Serkis's brings out the humor.
If you are a big fan of the character, by all means go see it. Up my grade a bit. But if you are not, prepare to feel a bit left out. There is plenty to see here, plenty to enjoy or marvel. But I still feel a bit disapointed. Grade: B
That is precisely the problem with The Adventures of Tintin. It's a lot of fun, with high-flying adventure and breakneck pacing; a film that takes joy with using the motion capture technology to the best of its ability. (However, it must be said that the 3D is an afterthought. I saw it in 3D and it added nothing.)
For me, what keeps the film from reaching the skies if the opening. I have very little knowledge of Tintin, other than my favorite rock group in '80s took there name from supporting characters (Thompson Twins). The film was off and running before I knew who this Tintin is and whatever his dog is named.
So I felt like I had began reading a book at chapter two. That left me not experiencing the movie, like the way one wraps you up when it really works. Instead, I was watching it.
But there is a lot to admire. I mentioned the motion capture earlier. There is an unbroken shot used for an action sequence which would be impossible to do in live action. It is truly something to see. About halfway through that sequence, I began to laugh, just due to the crazyness of it all. This may be the best swooping shot of 2011 (not directed by Martin Scorsese).
The voice work is solid across the board, but Andy Serkis has to be singled out. He is having a high old time as the captain who, to put it mildly, likes his drink. The character is a bit broad for my tastes, but Serkis's brings out the humor.
If you are a big fan of the character, by all means go see it. Up my grade a bit. But if you are not, prepare to feel a bit left out. There is plenty to see here, plenty to enjoy or marvel. But I still feel a bit disapointed. Grade: B
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
