Oscar nomination predictions -- the other categories

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Carol
Hateful Eight
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Sicario

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Brooklyn
Carol
Cinderella
Crimson Peak
Mad Max: Fury Road

BEST EDITING

The Big Short
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Spotlight

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

Black Mass
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Bridge of Spies
Carol
The Hateful Eight
Spotlight
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

"Earned It" (Fifty Shades of Grey)
"See You Again" (Furious 7)
"Til It Happens To You (The Hunting Ground)
"Simple Song #3" (Youth)

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Bridge of Spies
Crimson Peak
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

BEST SOUND EDITING

Inside Out
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

BEST SOUND MIXING

Bridge of Spies
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
The Walk

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Anomalisa
The Good Dinosaur
Inside Out
The Peanuts Movie
Shaun the Sheep

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

The Brand New Testament (Belgium)
Mustang (France)
Labyrinth of Lies (Germany)
Son of Saul (Hungary)
Viva (Ireland)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Amy
Best of Enemies
Cartel Land
Listen to Me Marlon
The Look of Silence

Oscar nomnation predictions -- the rest of the big 8 categories

BEST DIRECTOR

Todd Haynes (Carol)
Alejandro G. Innaritu (The Revenant)
Tom McCarthy (Spotlight)
Geroge Miller (Mad Max: Fury Road)
Ridley Scott (The Martian)

BEST ACTOR

Bryan Cranston (Trumbo)
Matt Damon (The Martian)
Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant)
Michael Fassbinder (Steve Jobs)
Eddie Redmayne (The Danish Girl)

BEST ACTRESS

Cate Blanchett (Carol)
Brie Larson (Room)
Jennifer Lawrence (Joy)
Saoirse Ronan (Brooklyn)
Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Christian Bale (The Big Short)
Idris Elba (Beasts of No Nation)
Mark Ruffalo (Spotlight)
Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies)
Sylvester Stallone (Creed)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Jennifer Jason Leigh (The Hateful Eight)
Rooney Mara (Carol)
Helen Mirren (Trumbo)
Alicia Vikander (Ex Machina)
Kate Winslet (Steve Jobs)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Bridge of Spies
The Hateful Eight
Inside Out
Spotlight
Trainwreck

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The Big Short
Brooklyn
Carol
The Martian
Steve Jobs

Oscar nomination predictions (picture)

The tough part about predicting Oscar nominations is the preferential system that no one uses. To get Oscar nominations, one has to be loved, not just liked.

This year, there is only one film that I am absolutely confident will be nominated, and that is Spotlight. With its combination of subject matter, reviews, and awards, I just can't see it missing.

Next, there are two films that have plenty of buzz, but are completely different than any other film in the race. Unique is good in this race. It means not splitting the vote with another film. Those two films are The Big Short and The Revenant. I have both of those films being nominated.

The whole liked vs loved conundrum has bothered me with Bridge of Spies. I have been skeptical as I saw this a film that would be liked. But it keeps showing up in awards consideration, and it has a bit of an old fashioned feel which will appeal to the older voters. And Steven Spielberg has his fanbase in Hollywood. That's our fourth film.

Are there enough younger voters? The Academy will have you believe its ranks have swelled with younger voters. Ultimately I don't see it from past years' nominations. The film I believe that will reflect this is Straight Outta Compton. If there are enough younger voters I think it will slip in, possibly with no other nominations. I am predicting it will just miss.

Science Fiction is not a genre that usually gets represented at the Oscars. So the odds were against Star Wars getting nominated. There was a rare occurrence in 2009 when both Avatar and District 9 were both nominated. I certainly don't see three sci fi films getting in. And in the rankings of quality sci fi, Star Wars this year falls behind the realism of The Martian and the oh-my-god spectacle that is Mad Max: Fury Road. With all of the votes that I think those two films will get, and the rare occurrence of two sci fi films getting nominated, I just don't see enough votes left for Star Wars.

The Academy is still overwhelmingly male. So I think this year's three female dominant films will bump against each other. Brooklyn is so charming, and Carol is so artful, that I suspect that Room is left out. Also, Brooklyn has four times the box office of Room, so I think the disappointing box office of Room will hurt. While Carol is just getting started, its a Weinstein film. Its campaign was better run than Room's.

Inside Out? Animation struggles. Trumbo? A movie to like, a movie to respect. But I don't see love. Sicario? Too dark. Hateful Eight? Too dark. I don't see anything else getting in. I have the field at eight.

The nomination predictions:
The Big Short
Bridge of Spies
Brooklyn
Carol
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Spotlight

Sunday 1/10/16

I am writing this during the Golden Globes. The is the final indicator before making my Oscar predictions. No, not who wins the awards -- they are irrelevant. But most years I tweak one or two predictions based on audience reactions. Besides, with Ricky Gervais hosting, it is bound to be entertaining.

*****

As a Pittsburgh Steelers fan, I would like to send my heartfelt thanks to Adam Pac-Man Jones just for being you. And to the Cincinnati Bengals, I would like to send a heartfelt HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA.

*****

I actually did not get to see the Bengals hand the game to the Steelers. I was one my way home from a unique experience that does have a movie connection. Maybe there are more opportunities in New York and Los Angeles for unique movie experiences, but I had one last night only available in the Midwest.

My cousin, Barak Coolman, is the head coach for the Valparaiso (IN) High School basketball team. Last night, I got to go see his team play and win. The location was the unique part. They played in the gym used for Hickory High School in Hoosiers. The gym is actually in Knightstown IN, it only holds 600 people, and the court is not close to regulation length or width. It was like a trip back in time, and boy was it fun.

*****

2015 Copeland Newsletter

Scott was diagnosed as being on the autistic spectrum in October (this used to be referred to as Asperger’s Syndrome). Work remains the legal caseload, which means he handles the cases going to court for non-payment. In June he gave a presentation to the Benefits Plus unit (about 50 people) on how to read the child support computer system. He was recently named to the AFSCME negotiating team for pay raises as part of his work as a steward. He was the statistician for Tracey’s high school team for a second season this fall. He was the transportation for Tracey to attend soccer tournaments in Gatlinburg TN, Raleigh NC and even Xenia OH. Scott’s favorite movies this year are Mad Max: Fury Road, Brooklyn, and Spotlight.

 

Laura experienced Ohio State’s second football national championship of our marriage in 2015. Laura should be back yelling at the TV when the Buckeyes against Notre Dame on New Year’s Day. She and Scott attended a series of documentaries in Columbus over the year all on the autistic condition. She remains an avid fan of watching Netflix television, and of Bones and Limitless on actual TV. She remains the household technician, and the coordinator of all medical appointments Tommy (and a few others, as well).

 

Megan, 23, is struggling to find herself emotionally. Early in the year her Nana fulfilled a promise by taking Megan and Allison to Universal Parks Florida to experience the Harry Potter worlds there. Megan spends a lot of time online She remains a voracious reader, making use of her Kindle. Her favorite reads are history and mystery. She has also been trying to write her own fiction, and outreach of the fantasy games she has played online.

 

Tracey, 16, experienced two different soccer experiences. In the spring, he played for Ohio Galaxy, a team now ranked in the top ten in the region after an undefeated regular season and four tournament finals. His Springfield High School team in the fall won two games in his junior year. (Although most of his close friends at high school are from the team.) He completed his third summer in Upward Bound. He is a member of student council at school. He escorted the principal’s daughter to this fall’s Homecoming Dance. He has already seen the new Star Wars movie three times. He got his driver’s license in December, so finally he can drive himself to soccer practice.

 

Tommy, 14, saw last year’s teacher finally retire and replaced by Miss McCaskey, a teacher who knows what she is doing. So life at Roosevelt Middle School is fun again. At home he is rarely seen without his I-Pad playing clips of Mickey Mouse Clubhouse, Dora the Explorer, and The Backyardigans and laughing frequently. He also has become a fan of the movie Frozen, and enjoyed The Peanuts Movie in a theater. This was his third Dream Soccer season with his father as his coach.

 

For Allison, 12, this was the year of Doctor Who. She zipped through all the seasons on Netflix, and found two fans at school. She also dressed as a Doctor for Halloween. In December she joined a fan group in Columbus of which one of Scott’s co-workers is a long time member. She is now in seventh grade at Roosevelt Middle School.  In the summer she was in a production of Seussical Jr, and journey with Aunt Karen’s family to Myrtle Beach. Allison is still busy earning merit badges in Girl Scouts.

 

Our count of cats is now three. Winnie and Lulu, who were born in 2014, were joined by a third girl, Gizmo. Winnie is our climber and explorer. Lulu is our most social. Gizmo still has a kitten’s energy and clearly idolizes the other two.

 

Meow.