My Oscar predictions/votes

Picture

Will win: Roma
Should win: Roma
Should be nominated: If Beale Street Could Talk

Director

Will win: Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
Should win: Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
Should be nominated: Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born

Actor

Will win: Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody

Should win: Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born

Should be nominated: Joaquin Phoenix, You Were Never Really Here

Actress

Will win: Glenn Close, The Wife

Should win: Yalitza Aparicio, Roma

Should be nominated: Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place

Supporting Actor

Will win: Mahershala Ali, Green Book

Should win: Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born

Should be nominated: Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther

Supporting Actress

Will win: Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk

Should win: Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk

Should be nominated: Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased

Animated Feature

Will win: Spiderman: Into the Spider-Verse 

Should win: Spiderman: Into the Spider-Verse

Should be nominated: the correct films are nominated

Cinematography

Will win: Roma
Should win: Roma
Should be nominated: Black Panther

Costume Design

Will win: The Favourite

Should win: Black Panther

Should be nominated: Crazy Rich Asians

Documentary Feature

Will win: RBG

Should win: Free Solo

Should be nominated: Won't You Be My Neighbor?

Documentary Short

Will win: Black Sheep

Should win: Period. End of Sentence.

Editing

Will win: Bohemian Rhapsody

Should win: BlacKkKlansman 

Should be nominated: A Star Is Born

Foreign Film

Will win: Roma

I have only seen two nominees, so will not pick a should win.

Makeup and Hairstyling

Will win: Vice

Should win: Vice

Should be nominated: Black Panther

Original Score

Will win: If Beale Street Could Talk

Should win: If Beale Street Could Talk

Should be nominated: Suspiria

Original Song

Will win: Shallow from A Star Is Born

Should win: Shallow from A Star Is Born

Should be nominated: The Girl in the Movies from Dumplin'

Production Design

Will win: Black Panther

Should win: Black Panther

Should be nominated: Annihilation

Animated Short

Will win: Bao

Should win: Late Afternoon

Should be nominated: Wishing Box

Live Action Short

Will win: Marguerite

Should win: Marguerite

Sound Editing

Will win: Bohemian Rhapsody

Should win: A Quiet Place

Should be nominated: Ready Player One

Sound Mixing

Will win: Bohemian Rhapsody

Should win: A Star Is Born

Should be nominated:  Ready Player One

Visual Effects

Will win: Avengers Infinity War

Should win: Avengers Infinity War

Should be nominated: Black Panther

Adapted Screenplay

Will win:  BlacKkKlansman

Should win: A Star Is Born

Should be nominated: Leave No Trace

Original Screenplay

Will win: Green Book

Should win: Roma

Should be nominated: Eighth Grade

My Best Picture Ballot

Given an Oscar ballot requires voters to rank their choices, and I have seen all of the nominees, here is how I vote and why. I think this is the weakest roster of nominees in years, with half of the nominees not deserving of a nomination.

1. Roma. Alfonso Cuaron has crafted a masterpiece. A first glance, this has the feel of an Italian neo-realistic classic such as Rome, Open City of Bicycle Thief. But the immediacy of those films was part of their merits. This is film is so crafted but maintains the illusion of immediacy, with a couple of astounding set pieces in the second half, and images I will never forget.

2. A Star Is Born. The greatest pleasures of this film are the small pleasures. When the two main characters are discussing a song being written, and the way they say "How do you hear it?" When she kind of embarrassingly says "I don't normally do this" and he responds "Good. Then we're on the same page." The editing, frequently overlapping concert sound with another scene. There are so many ways this could have gone wrong. I amazed how much went right.

3. Black Panther. Marvel has not made a better film. The pleasures of a superhero film are merged with real life political concerns. Ryan Coogler has made a film that speaks to African Americans but has a universal appeal at the same time. The Screen Actors Guild got it right: this is the best cast across the board of any film this year.

4. BlacKkKlansman. I felt the first half of the film is a little too slowly paced. However, the final half hour, which cuts back and forth between a Klan membership induction and a black students meeting is stunning. The meeting, in which an elder gentleman recalls Emmitt Till is riveting because it is Harry Belafonte giving the talk. Then the film wraps up in a way that brings it forward to today in a way that leaves the audience angry at our current society.

5. Green Book. Now we enter the undeserving part of the roster. Green Book is a pleasant buddy comedy with a dash of anger about the racism of the 60s. It is not some great statement about race relations, and it is nowhere close to as strong a film on the subject as Driving Miss Daisy (let alone Do The Right Thing).

6. Bohemian Rhapsody. The music scenes are really well done, and why I slimly recommended it. But this film does not appear to know what made Freddy Mercury tick, and the scenes of his home life way the film down. I would have preferred to see more of the band together in the studio and onstage, because that is when the film really sings.

7. The Favourite. Apparently it is really daring to show that the Queen had lesbian affairs! To me, it felt like a five year old who thinks it is the height of daring and hilarity to say "poopy" over and over. Sure, the film is well made, but what does it accomplish?

8. Vice. It is hard to believe that Adam McCay made both this and The Big Short. The Big Short had all kinds of insight as to what made the financial crises occur. Vice has no insight whatsoever as to what makes Dick Cheney tick. It is a well acted but ultimately empty exercise.