Oscar nomination predictions and votes

I've already posted my analysis of the three shorts races, with mini reviews of all of them as I have seen all of the nominated shorts this year. I've done the same for animated feature and documentary feature. Here's predictions and opinions for the feature nominations:

PICTURE

Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
127 Hours
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone

With True Grit as a dark horse, I think this is mostly between The Social Network and The King's Speech. Usually when one film takes an edgy approach and one a more traditional approach, the traditional approach wins. For example, Forrest Gump beating Pulp Fiction, or Dances with Wolves beating Goodfellas. Both contenders are well made, but I'll take the traditional approach: The King's Speech.

My vote: Inception. It topped my end of the year list, and I haven't changed my mind.

ACTOR

Javier Bardem (Biutiful)
Jeff Bridges (True Grit)
Jesse Eisenberg (The Social Network)
Colin Firth (The King's Speech)
James Franco (127 Hours)

Colin Firth has been the frontrunner all season. That remains unchanged. He'll win.

My vote: Eisenberg. It's hard to make a character standoffish and intriguing at the same time, but he did it.

ACTRESS

Annette Bening (The Kids Are All Right)
Nicole Kidman (Rabbit Hole)
Jennifer Lawrence (Winter's Bone)
Natalie Portman (Black Swan)
Michelle Williams (Blue Valentine)

Natalie Portman has been the frontrunner all season. That remains unchanged. She'll win.

My vote: Portman. She does heavy emotion, complicated dancing, and keeps us involved through some rather outlandish plot twists. The best acting this year in any category.

SUPPORTING ACTOR

Christian Bale (The Fighter)
John Hawkes (Winter's Bone)
Jeremy Renner (The Town)
Mark Ruffalo (The Kids Are All Right)
Geoffrey Rush (The King's Speech)

Christian Bale has been the frontrunner all season. That remains unchanged. He'll win.

My vote: I have a lot of affection for Ruffalo's live-in performance, but I cannot deny the overall impressiveness of Bale. So I vote for Bale.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Amy Adams (The Fighter)
Helena Bonham Carter (The King's Speech)
Melissa Leo (The Fighter)
Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit)
Jacki Weaver (Animal Kingdom)

Melissa Leo has been the frontrunner all season. That remains unchanged. But... she has waged a personal campaign in the Hollywood papers which has turned some people off, and I think her lead has slipped. I can literally come up with a scenario where any of the five could win. I think the toughest contender is Steinfeld, who absolutely carries a film which received 10 nominations. I think this is close, but I think Leo will still pull out a close win.

My choice: Steinfeld. She should have been up for lead , as she carries the film, but as for the question of which performance I like the best of these five, it is her.

ART DIRECTION

Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, PArt 1
Inception
The King's Speech
True Grit

Alice in Wonderful are the most eye popping, but my bet is the film which had a hotel set that had to spin to create the illusion of being on the ceiling. That would be Inception.

My choise: Inception, for that reason.

CINEMATOGRAPHY

Black Swan
Inception
The King's Speech
The Social Network
True Grit

This year's ridiculously overdue winner is Roger Deakins, who should have wone previously. Multiple times. He shot True Grit.

My choise: Black Swan. Matthew Libatique put me in the main character's head, and pulled off some logistical nightmares with all those reflections.

COSTUMES

Alice in Wonderland
I Am Love
The King's Speech
The Tempest
True Grit

Sandy Powell (The Tempest) and Colleen Atwood (Alice in Wonderland) are generally the two most respected in the business, but more people saw Atwood's work. So I'm going with Alice.

My choice: vacant. I have not seen I am Love or The Tempest, and I usually love Powell's work. Of the three I have seen, I would be fine with any of the three.

DIRECTOR

Darren Aronofsky (Black Swan)
David O Russell (The Fighter)
Tom Hooper (The King's Speech)
Darren Fincher (The Social Network)
Joel and Ethan Coen (True Grit)

Hoper won the Director's Guild award. But that had a lot of TV directors voting, and Hooper (John Adams) has a TV background. The movie director, and the former nominee who hasn't won yet, is Fincher, and somehow he made computer nerds visually arresting with great acting. I go with Fincher.

My choice: Fincher. He;s due, and this is his best film to date.

EDITING

Black Swan
The Fighter
The King's Speech
127 Hours
The Social Network

When in doubt, take the Best Picture winner in this category. I'm very unsure, but will take The King's Speech.

My choice: Inception. And since that isn't nominated, The Social Network, for going back and forth in time effortlessly.

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Biutiful
Dogtooth
In a Better World
Incendies
Outside the Law

The voters have to watch all five films, so Biutiful's supposedly front-runner status I believe is inaccurate. I believe In a Better World has the approach the voters will endorse.

My choice: vacant. I haven't seen any of them.

MAKEUP

Barney's Version
The Way Back
The Wolfman

This category most years should be most makeup. This year, that's The Wolfman.

My choice: I haven't seen any of them.

MUSIC: ORIGINAL SCORE

How to Train Your Dragon
Inception
The King's Speech
127 Hours
The Social Network

Remember this category is voted by the whole academy. Usually when a non-traditional composer gets nominated, he can win. That would be Trent Reznor (and Atticus Ross)for The Social Network.

My choice: I love The Social Network, but love Hans Zimmer's work for Inception anymore. The last five minutes of the movie is my favorite piece of music this year.

MUSIC: ORIGINAL SONG

"Coming Home" (Country Strong)
"I See The Light" (Tangled)
"If I Rise" (127 Hours)
"We Belong Together" (Toy Story 3)

The last time the list was so underwhelming, the voters figured they would just vote for Randy Newman. I guessing they do it again, for "We Belong Together".

My choice: The only song of the four I remembered was "I See The Light", used during Tangled's best scene, when the lanterns are lit.

SOUND EDITING

Inception
Toy STory 3
Tron: Legacy
True Grit
Unstoppable

The sound design that stunned the most this year was Inception.

My choise: The sound design that stunned the most this year was Inception.

SOUND MIXING

Inception
The King's Speech
Salt
The Social Netwrok
True Grit

Closer than the other sound race, but I think Inception still impresses.

My choice: Inception still impresses.

VISUAL EFFECTS

Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 1
Hereafter
Inception
Iron Man 2

Lots of amazing subtle effects, and a couple of jaw dropping ones, make Inception the choice.

My choice: Inception. Easiest choice on the entire list.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Another Year
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech

A great backstory for the writer, coupled with great dialogue, makes The King's Speech the easy prediction.

My Choise: For creating a dream within a dream within a dream, and getting it to make sense, Inception is an easy choise for me.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

127 Hours
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone

Aaron Sorkin (The Social Network) has been the frontrunner all season. That remains unchanged. He'll win.

My choise: Sorkin created my favorite TV show of all time, Sports Night. Of course I am rooting for him.