Oscar winner predictions (the other categories)

One quick note on the rest of the nominations: I think it is going to be a very good night for Mad Max: Fury Road.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Emmanuel Lubezki (The Revenant) has won the last two years in this category. Robert Richardson (The Hateful Eight) already has won three. John Seale (Mad Max: Fury Road) already has an Oscar. Roger Deakins is a legend who has never won -- but Sicario isn't in other categories. I could also build a case for the gorgeous work of non-winner Edward Lachman in Carol. I just can't build a strong enough case against the three-peat.

Winner: The Revenant (Emmanuel Lubezki)

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

In a category usually dominated by period pieces, truly unique work not in the past can break through. That is one film this year.

Winner: Mad Max: Fury Road (Jenny Beavan)

BEST FILM EDITING

If Spotlight or The Big Picture wins here, that film will win best picture. But I suspect the winner in this category is the one with non-stop action that was still easy to follow.

Winner: Mad Max: Fury Road (Margaret Sixel)

BEST MAKE-UP

Frequently the most outlandish wins here.

Winner: Mad Max: Fury Road (Lesley Vanderwalt, Damian Martin, Elka Wardega)

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Not only is a legend long overdue, but he turned in great work this year.

Winner: The Hateful Eight (Ennio Morricone)

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

The subject matter has something to do with it. So does the fact Diane Warren has never won. So does the fact Lady Gaga is a major star, and this category like stars. It also happens to be the best song this year.

Winner: Til It Happens to You (The Hunting Ground): Dianne Warren, Lady Gaga

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Because of those amazing vehicles.

Winner: Mad Max: Fury Road (Colin Gibson; Katie Sharrock, Lisa Thompson)

BEST SOUND (both categories)

Winner: Mad Max: Fury Road

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

What was the most impressive effect this year? It really looked like Leonardo DiCaprio was actually mauled by a bear.

Winner: The Revenant (Rich McBride, Matthew Shumway, Jason Smith and Cameron Waldbauer)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

When in doubt, vote for Pixar

Winner: Inside Out

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

One film has dominated the precursors this year.

Winner: Son of Saul

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

One film has dominated the precursors this year.

Winner: Amy

BEST DOCUMETARY SHORT

The favorite is Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah, And certainly, a film about a film about the holocaust certainly ticks the boxes to be a favorite. But if you have seen the shorts, you know one has a unique approach using animation and also is political. I'm predicting the upset.

Winner: Last Day of Freedom

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

I'm going with the most unique look which also has a unique storyline. Yes, I am betting against Pixar this year.

Winner: World of Tomorrow

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

A high quality category this year, and for me one of the most difficult calls. Sometimes the winner is the one that is different than the others. One film brings you into the life of its main character, demonstrates a sense of humor, and ends on a perfect note. So while I would not be surprised by wins by Day One, or Everything Will Be Okay (or disappointed as they are great as well), there is one film that stands out as unique this year.

Winner: Stutterer

Oscar winner predictions (the top categories)

BEST PICTURE

In a year more competitive than most, part of trying to predict is to look at the methodology of picking winners. The Oscars used a ranking system, where a majority of voters have to agree on the winner, not just a plurality, I believe the different methodology is the difference between a win in the Oscars and most other awards is the difference between winning and losing for The Revenant.

I believe The Revenant will get the most first place votes. But not 50%, which is not what is needed. I also believe The Revenant will get the most last place votes, and will ultimately be eliminated.

So what does get 50%? It is certainly instructive that the only award that uses the same voting system as the Oscars is the Producers Guild. The PGA gave its best picture to The Big Short. But that's only the producers.

The biggest branch is the actors. What film has the most impressive display of acting? It might be The Big Short. It would not be surprising to me if it is. But one other film, well respected across the board, which has an impressive ensemble cast, including two acting nominees. I think the vote is one of the closest ever, but I see Spotlight pulling off what will be seen as some as an upset win.

Winner: Spotlight

BEST DIRECTOR

So does the methodology hurt The Revenant here? Maybe. Maybe not. I would not be surprised if Alejandro Innaritu does win. But if not him, then who? Both The Big Short and Spotlight's directors are nominated for their screenplays, and I think both are seen more as writing achievements than directing. Room isn't quite big enough for the award, I suspect, Which leaves one film, a career crowning achievement for its director, and a spectacle of a film as well. I am picking the upset.

Winner: George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road

BEST ACTOR

No upsets here. Leo is overdue, he suffered for his art, blah, blah, blah.

Winner: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant

BEST ACTRESS

Brie Larson became the frontrunner as soon as her film screened at Toronto. She's never moved from that status.

Winner: Brie Larson, Room

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Usually sentiment rules in one acting category. This is the category this year. The fact that it is Creed's only nomination, when the film deserved more nominations in many people's eyes, will only make the case stronger.

Winner: Sylvester Stallone, Creed

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

The toughest category to pick. I could build a case for any of the five nominees to win. The case I believe is that Alicia Vikander was brilliant in Ex Machina, which isn't even the performance for which she was nominated. And many times before the winner in supporting has more than one great performance in a year.

Winner: Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl

BEST SCREENPLAY

My argument is the same for both categories is the same. Both categories have a script co-written by its director which take a complex real life scandal and create an easy to follow and entertaining movie.

Winner (Original): Spotlight
Winner (Adapted): The Big Short

other categories to follow

Oscar nomination predictions -- the other categories

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Carol
Hateful Eight
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Sicario

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Brooklyn
Carol
Cinderella
Crimson Peak
Mad Max: Fury Road

BEST EDITING

The Big Short
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Spotlight

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

Black Mass
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Bridge of Spies
Carol
The Hateful Eight
Spotlight
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

"Earned It" (Fifty Shades of Grey)
"See You Again" (Furious 7)
"Til It Happens To You (The Hunting Ground)
"Simple Song #3" (Youth)

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Bridge of Spies
Crimson Peak
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

BEST SOUND EDITING

Inside Out
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

BEST SOUND MIXING

Bridge of Spies
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
The Walk

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Anomalisa
The Good Dinosaur
Inside Out
The Peanuts Movie
Shaun the Sheep

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

The Brand New Testament (Belgium)
Mustang (France)
Labyrinth of Lies (Germany)
Son of Saul (Hungary)
Viva (Ireland)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Amy
Best of Enemies
Cartel Land
Listen to Me Marlon
The Look of Silence

Oscar nomnation predictions -- the rest of the big 8 categories

BEST DIRECTOR

Todd Haynes (Carol)
Alejandro G. Innaritu (The Revenant)
Tom McCarthy (Spotlight)
Geroge Miller (Mad Max: Fury Road)
Ridley Scott (The Martian)

BEST ACTOR

Bryan Cranston (Trumbo)
Matt Damon (The Martian)
Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant)
Michael Fassbinder (Steve Jobs)
Eddie Redmayne (The Danish Girl)

BEST ACTRESS

Cate Blanchett (Carol)
Brie Larson (Room)
Jennifer Lawrence (Joy)
Saoirse Ronan (Brooklyn)
Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Christian Bale (The Big Short)
Idris Elba (Beasts of No Nation)
Mark Ruffalo (Spotlight)
Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies)
Sylvester Stallone (Creed)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Jennifer Jason Leigh (The Hateful Eight)
Rooney Mara (Carol)
Helen Mirren (Trumbo)
Alicia Vikander (Ex Machina)
Kate Winslet (Steve Jobs)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Bridge of Spies
The Hateful Eight
Inside Out
Spotlight
Trainwreck

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The Big Short
Brooklyn
Carol
The Martian
Steve Jobs

Oscar nomination predictions (picture)

The tough part about predicting Oscar nominations is the preferential system that no one uses. To get Oscar nominations, one has to be loved, not just liked.

This year, there is only one film that I am absolutely confident will be nominated, and that is Spotlight. With its combination of subject matter, reviews, and awards, I just can't see it missing.

Next, there are two films that have plenty of buzz, but are completely different than any other film in the race. Unique is good in this race. It means not splitting the vote with another film. Those two films are The Big Short and The Revenant. I have both of those films being nominated.

The whole liked vs loved conundrum has bothered me with Bridge of Spies. I have been skeptical as I saw this a film that would be liked. But it keeps showing up in awards consideration, and it has a bit of an old fashioned feel which will appeal to the older voters. And Steven Spielberg has his fanbase in Hollywood. That's our fourth film.

Are there enough younger voters? The Academy will have you believe its ranks have swelled with younger voters. Ultimately I don't see it from past years' nominations. The film I believe that will reflect this is Straight Outta Compton. If there are enough younger voters I think it will slip in, possibly with no other nominations. I am predicting it will just miss.

Science Fiction is not a genre that usually gets represented at the Oscars. So the odds were against Star Wars getting nominated. There was a rare occurrence in 2009 when both Avatar and District 9 were both nominated. I certainly don't see three sci fi films getting in. And in the rankings of quality sci fi, Star Wars this year falls behind the realism of The Martian and the oh-my-god spectacle that is Mad Max: Fury Road. With all of the votes that I think those two films will get, and the rare occurrence of two sci fi films getting nominated, I just don't see enough votes left for Star Wars.

The Academy is still overwhelmingly male. So I think this year's three female dominant films will bump against each other. Brooklyn is so charming, and Carol is so artful, that I suspect that Room is left out. Also, Brooklyn has four times the box office of Room, so I think the disappointing box office of Room will hurt. While Carol is just getting started, its a Weinstein film. Its campaign was better run than Room's.

Inside Out? Animation struggles. Trumbo? A movie to like, a movie to respect. But I don't see love. Sicario? Too dark. Hateful Eight? Too dark. I don't see anything else getting in. I have the field at eight.

The nomination predictions:
The Big Short
Bridge of Spies
Brooklyn
Carol
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Spotlight

Sunday 1/10/16

I am writing this during the Golden Globes. The is the final indicator before making my Oscar predictions. No, not who wins the awards -- they are irrelevant. But most years I tweak one or two predictions based on audience reactions. Besides, with Ricky Gervais hosting, it is bound to be entertaining.

*****

As a Pittsburgh Steelers fan, I would like to send my heartfelt thanks to Adam Pac-Man Jones just for being you. And to the Cincinnati Bengals, I would like to send a heartfelt HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA.

*****

I actually did not get to see the Bengals hand the game to the Steelers. I was one my way home from a unique experience that does have a movie connection. Maybe there are more opportunities in New York and Los Angeles for unique movie experiences, but I had one last night only available in the Midwest.

My cousin, Barak Coolman, is the head coach for the Valparaiso (IN) High School basketball team. Last night, I got to go see his team play and win. The location was the unique part. They played in the gym used for Hickory High School in Hoosiers. The gym is actually in Knightstown IN, it only holds 600 people, and the court is not close to regulation length or width. It was like a trip back in time, and boy was it fun.

*****

2015 Copeland Newsletter

Scott was diagnosed as being on the autistic spectrum in October (this used to be referred to as Asperger’s Syndrome). Work remains the legal caseload, which means he handles the cases going to court for non-payment. In June he gave a presentation to the Benefits Plus unit (about 50 people) on how to read the child support computer system. He was recently named to the AFSCME negotiating team for pay raises as part of his work as a steward. He was the statistician for Tracey’s high school team for a second season this fall. He was the transportation for Tracey to attend soccer tournaments in Gatlinburg TN, Raleigh NC and even Xenia OH. Scott’s favorite movies this year are Mad Max: Fury Road, Brooklyn, and Spotlight.

 

Laura experienced Ohio State’s second football national championship of our marriage in 2015. Laura should be back yelling at the TV when the Buckeyes against Notre Dame on New Year’s Day. She and Scott attended a series of documentaries in Columbus over the year all on the autistic condition. She remains an avid fan of watching Netflix television, and of Bones and Limitless on actual TV. She remains the household technician, and the coordinator of all medical appointments Tommy (and a few others, as well).

 

Megan, 23, is struggling to find herself emotionally. Early in the year her Nana fulfilled a promise by taking Megan and Allison to Universal Parks Florida to experience the Harry Potter worlds there. Megan spends a lot of time online She remains a voracious reader, making use of her Kindle. Her favorite reads are history and mystery. She has also been trying to write her own fiction, and outreach of the fantasy games she has played online.

 

Tracey, 16, experienced two different soccer experiences. In the spring, he played for Ohio Galaxy, a team now ranked in the top ten in the region after an undefeated regular season and four tournament finals. His Springfield High School team in the fall won two games in his junior year. (Although most of his close friends at high school are from the team.) He completed his third summer in Upward Bound. He is a member of student council at school. He escorted the principal’s daughter to this fall’s Homecoming Dance. He has already seen the new Star Wars movie three times. He got his driver’s license in December, so finally he can drive himself to soccer practice.

 

Tommy, 14, saw last year’s teacher finally retire and replaced by Miss McCaskey, a teacher who knows what she is doing. So life at Roosevelt Middle School is fun again. At home he is rarely seen without his I-Pad playing clips of Mickey Mouse Clubhouse, Dora the Explorer, and The Backyardigans and laughing frequently. He also has become a fan of the movie Frozen, and enjoyed The Peanuts Movie in a theater. This was his third Dream Soccer season with his father as his coach.

 

For Allison, 12, this was the year of Doctor Who. She zipped through all the seasons on Netflix, and found two fans at school. She also dressed as a Doctor for Halloween. In December she joined a fan group in Columbus of which one of Scott’s co-workers is a long time member. She is now in seventh grade at Roosevelt Middle School.  In the summer she was in a production of Seussical Jr, and journey with Aunt Karen’s family to Myrtle Beach. Allison is still busy earning merit badges in Girl Scouts.

 

Our count of cats is now three. Winnie and Lulu, who were born in 2014, were joined by a third girl, Gizmo. Winnie is our climber and explorer. Lulu is our most social. Gizmo still has a kitten’s energy and clearly idolizes the other two.

 

Meow.