Oscar nomination predictions (picture)

The tough part about predicting Oscar nominations is the preferential system that no one uses. To get Oscar nominations, one has to be loved, not just liked.

This year, there is only one film that I am absolutely confident will be nominated, and that is Spotlight. With its combination of subject matter, reviews, and awards, I just can't see it missing.

Next, there are two films that have plenty of buzz, but are completely different than any other film in the race. Unique is good in this race. It means not splitting the vote with another film. Those two films are The Big Short and The Revenant. I have both of those films being nominated.

The whole liked vs loved conundrum has bothered me with Bridge of Spies. I have been skeptical as I saw this a film that would be liked. But it keeps showing up in awards consideration, and it has a bit of an old fashioned feel which will appeal to the older voters. And Steven Spielberg has his fanbase in Hollywood. That's our fourth film.

Are there enough younger voters? The Academy will have you believe its ranks have swelled with younger voters. Ultimately I don't see it from past years' nominations. The film I believe that will reflect this is Straight Outta Compton. If there are enough younger voters I think it will slip in, possibly with no other nominations. I am predicting it will just miss.

Science Fiction is not a genre that usually gets represented at the Oscars. So the odds were against Star Wars getting nominated. There was a rare occurrence in 2009 when both Avatar and District 9 were both nominated. I certainly don't see three sci fi films getting in. And in the rankings of quality sci fi, Star Wars this year falls behind the realism of The Martian and the oh-my-god spectacle that is Mad Max: Fury Road. With all of the votes that I think those two films will get, and the rare occurrence of two sci fi films getting nominated, I just don't see enough votes left for Star Wars.

The Academy is still overwhelmingly male. So I think this year's three female dominant films will bump against each other. Brooklyn is so charming, and Carol is so artful, that I suspect that Room is left out. Also, Brooklyn has four times the box office of Room, so I think the disappointing box office of Room will hurt. While Carol is just getting started, its a Weinstein film. Its campaign was better run than Room's.

Inside Out? Animation struggles. Trumbo? A movie to like, a movie to respect. But I don't see love. Sicario? Too dark. Hateful Eight? Too dark. I don't see anything else getting in. I have the field at eight.

The nomination predictions:
The Big Short
Bridge of Spies
Brooklyn
Carol
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Spotlight