Oscar winner predictions (the top categories)

BEST PICTURE

In a year more competitive than most, part of trying to predict is to look at the methodology of picking winners. The Oscars used a ranking system, where a majority of voters have to agree on the winner, not just a plurality, I believe the different methodology is the difference between a win in the Oscars and most other awards is the difference between winning and losing for The Revenant.

I believe The Revenant will get the most first place votes. But not 50%, which is not what is needed. I also believe The Revenant will get the most last place votes, and will ultimately be eliminated.

So what does get 50%? It is certainly instructive that the only award that uses the same voting system as the Oscars is the Producers Guild. The PGA gave its best picture to The Big Short. But that's only the producers.

The biggest branch is the actors. What film has the most impressive display of acting? It might be The Big Short. It would not be surprising to me if it is. But one other film, well respected across the board, which has an impressive ensemble cast, including two acting nominees. I think the vote is one of the closest ever, but I see Spotlight pulling off what will be seen as some as an upset win.

Winner: Spotlight

BEST DIRECTOR

So does the methodology hurt The Revenant here? Maybe. Maybe not. I would not be surprised if Alejandro Innaritu does win. But if not him, then who? Both The Big Short and Spotlight's directors are nominated for their screenplays, and I think both are seen more as writing achievements than directing. Room isn't quite big enough for the award, I suspect, Which leaves one film, a career crowning achievement for its director, and a spectacle of a film as well. I am picking the upset.

Winner: George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road

BEST ACTOR

No upsets here. Leo is overdue, he suffered for his art, blah, blah, blah.

Winner: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant

BEST ACTRESS

Brie Larson became the frontrunner as soon as her film screened at Toronto. She's never moved from that status.

Winner: Brie Larson, Room

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Usually sentiment rules in one acting category. This is the category this year. The fact that it is Creed's only nomination, when the film deserved more nominations in many people's eyes, will only make the case stronger.

Winner: Sylvester Stallone, Creed

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

The toughest category to pick. I could build a case for any of the five nominees to win. The case I believe is that Alicia Vikander was brilliant in Ex Machina, which isn't even the performance for which she was nominated. And many times before the winner in supporting has more than one great performance in a year.

Winner: Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl

BEST SCREENPLAY

My argument is the same for both categories is the same. Both categories have a script co-written by its director which take a complex real life scandal and create an easy to follow and entertaining movie.

Winner (Original): Spotlight
Winner (Adapted): The Big Short

other categories to follow