I remember in 1981 when Siskel and Ebert went bananas for My Dinner With Andre. A movie about a dinner conversation! As a 13 year old, I did not know what to think. When I finally caught up with the film, I was bound to be disappointed. I probably wasn't the right age to connect with the film. I need to rewatch the film now that I am in my 40s. I probably will connect with the film a bit more.
Now here comes a film detailing a conversation over a few days between reporter David Lipsky (Jesse Eisenberg) and author David Foster Wallace (Jason Siegel). I've been reading how fascinating the conversation is between these two, and all I could think during the film was that neither of these guys were remotely as interesting as Andre Gregory. Or his dinner companion in My Dinner With Andre, Wallace Shawn.
The early portion of the film is in nearly recent time which establishes that Wallace committed suicide. Then the film goes back to the few days Lipsky spent with him in 1996 on a book tour. We hear repeatedly how amazing the book is. There is no evidence provided in the film of the author's brilliance. There is no evidence of how he ended up so despondent he took his life.
What we have is a guy who lives in Illinois and goes to Minnesota and is fascinated with what snobs would refer to as low culture. But there is no insight provided. So Wallace comes across as a fundamentally decent normal Midwestern guy. I live in Ohio. I have conversations with fundamentally decent normal Midwestern guys on a daily basis. Those conversations would not make for a movie either.
I cannot describe how bored I was watching this film. Nothing happens. Nothing is talked about. The most interesting thing is that they go to a movie at the Mall of America. (The movie is Broken Arrow.) And that's the film. This is the most overrated film of the year. Grade: D+
Saturday, October 31, 2015
Sunday, October 18, 2015
100 movies, 1990-2014
So why do this list? Limitations.
I have read other lists of best films of all time. But the reality is that I graduated from high school in 1986. While I am aware of many of the films of the time before my adulthood, I am aware of too many films before then that I have yet to see.
Meanwhile, my favorite book has printed its final edition. I have purchased Leonard Maltin's Movie Guide every year since 1984. The last year it published was 2015, covering films up to May 2014. So this was the time for me to proceed.
I first started with a list from my graduation date. Instead, I decided to use the nice round figure of 25 years. Hence, 1990 to 2014. I started putting this list together a year ago. I only just found out that Entertainment Weekly is celebrating its 25th anniversary. This is just a coincidence.
I plan to do a post for each movie as a countdown. The point is to one by one, cover and discuss 100 great recent movies. Of course, the ranking isn't critical. Even making the list anywhere means it is in my opinion a great film.
I have read other lists of best films of all time. But the reality is that I graduated from high school in 1986. While I am aware of many of the films of the time before my adulthood, I am aware of too many films before then that I have yet to see.
Meanwhile, my favorite book has printed its final edition. I have purchased Leonard Maltin's Movie Guide every year since 1984. The last year it published was 2015, covering films up to May 2014. So this was the time for me to proceed.
I first started with a list from my graduation date. Instead, I decided to use the nice round figure of 25 years. Hence, 1990 to 2014. I started putting this list together a year ago. I only just found out that Entertainment Weekly is celebrating its 25th anniversary. This is just a coincidence.
I plan to do a post for each movie as a countdown. The point is to one by one, cover and discuss 100 great recent movies. Of course, the ranking isn't critical. Even making the list anywhere means it is in my opinion a great film.
Sunday 10/18/15
...and we are back. I've been without my own computer for most of the fall, and been doing some soul searching this year, so I haven't been writing. But I miss writing, and the best way to start writing is to start writing.
I have put together a list of the best movies for the past 25 years. But that is for another post.
I also plan to start writing about my other entertainment passions in TV and music. In music, I have a bit of obsession with the music charts, so that might inspire some columns. But let's talk about my TV interests. Here are the shows that interest me at this time:
I wrote a column earlier this year about the state of ESPN. I'm not sure I want to take that on further. It has gotten worse since that column. If it weren't for Pardon The Interruption, I'm not sure how much I could watch anymore. The air talent at ESPN is the weakest it has been since the 80s.
There are three reality shows I watch regularly: The Voice, Survivor, and The Amazing Race. I'm not sure I will write much on The Voice, as the singers are a matter of taste. I am fascinated by the politics of Survivor. And the more genuine competition of The Amazing Race is actually my favorite.
There are no current dramas that I watch regularly. One older comedy in The Big Bang Theory consistently makes me laugh, and as a longtime fan of The Muppets I have enjoyed the new show.
But for regular laughs, I look to late night. I have been a big fan of Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert for years. I figured I would jump to CBS with Colbert, But a funny thing happen in the 6 months between Colbert leaving Comedy Central and him premiering on CBS. Larry Wilmore appeared.
So my loyalties stay with Comedy Central's shows. Trevor Noah is still finding his footing on The Daily Show. But the show kept its writing staff and some of his correspondents. Jessica Williams in particular in still comedy gold. The Nightly Report shows off Larry Wilmore, who has found his footing and is covering Jon Stewart's territory.
So that's TV. Now for the next column, back to the movies ...
I have put together a list of the best movies for the past 25 years. But that is for another post.
I also plan to start writing about my other entertainment passions in TV and music. In music, I have a bit of obsession with the music charts, so that might inspire some columns. But let's talk about my TV interests. Here are the shows that interest me at this time:
I wrote a column earlier this year about the state of ESPN. I'm not sure I want to take that on further. It has gotten worse since that column. If it weren't for Pardon The Interruption, I'm not sure how much I could watch anymore. The air talent at ESPN is the weakest it has been since the 80s.
There are three reality shows I watch regularly: The Voice, Survivor, and The Amazing Race. I'm not sure I will write much on The Voice, as the singers are a matter of taste. I am fascinated by the politics of Survivor. And the more genuine competition of The Amazing Race is actually my favorite.
There are no current dramas that I watch regularly. One older comedy in The Big Bang Theory consistently makes me laugh, and as a longtime fan of The Muppets I have enjoyed the new show.
But for regular laughs, I look to late night. I have been a big fan of Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert for years. I figured I would jump to CBS with Colbert, But a funny thing happen in the 6 months between Colbert leaving Comedy Central and him premiering on CBS. Larry Wilmore appeared.
So my loyalties stay with Comedy Central's shows. Trevor Noah is still finding his footing on The Daily Show. But the show kept its writing staff and some of his correspondents. Jessica Williams in particular in still comedy gold. The Nightly Report shows off Larry Wilmore, who has found his footing and is covering Jon Stewart's territory.
So that's TV. Now for the next column, back to the movies ...
Saturday, February 28, 2015
Oscars post mortem
At 11:15 Sunday night, I was tired. I wanted to get to bed. Only 15 minutes was scheduled until the end of the Oscars. Six categories left, so clearly getting the show done in time was going to be tough. Instead of rushing through the six categories, a lengthy tribute to a 50 year old musical began.
This is a slap in the face to those of us in the Eastern Time Zone who work for a living. I get up around 6 am. So I was in no mood to see Lady Gaga sing when all I wanted at that point is to know who won screenplay, director, actor, actress, and picture Oscars.
This was the third year in a row for the Oscars to be produced Craig Zadan and Neil Meron. It needs to be their last. These guys couldn't put together a good show to save their lives. Let's look at the good decisions they have made in the past year.
They hired Ellen DeGeneres to host last year.
That's about it. Meanwhile, I have sat through bloated overproductions with tributes to Dreamgirls, Wizard of Oz, and Sound of Music. None of which were nominated in those respective years. Two years ago I sat through the worst Oscars host in my lifetime. This year, I sat through a host who apparently had been stranded without a writing staff.
I love the Oscars. I love the guessing at the nominations, guessing at the winners (even though I had a tough year this year). But the show has been an endurance test for too much of the past three years. Enough is enough. Zadan and Meron must go.
This is a slap in the face to those of us in the Eastern Time Zone who work for a living. I get up around 6 am. So I was in no mood to see Lady Gaga sing when all I wanted at that point is to know who won screenplay, director, actor, actress, and picture Oscars.
This was the third year in a row for the Oscars to be produced Craig Zadan and Neil Meron. It needs to be their last. These guys couldn't put together a good show to save their lives. Let's look at the good decisions they have made in the past year.
They hired Ellen DeGeneres to host last year.
That's about it. Meanwhile, I have sat through bloated overproductions with tributes to Dreamgirls, Wizard of Oz, and Sound of Music. None of which were nominated in those respective years. Two years ago I sat through the worst Oscars host in my lifetime. This year, I sat through a host who apparently had been stranded without a writing staff.
I love the Oscars. I love the guessing at the nominations, guessing at the winners (even though I had a tough year this year). But the show has been an endurance test for too much of the past three years. Enough is enough. Zadan and Meron must go.
Sunday, February 22, 2015
Oscar predictions
Can we pause for a second to appreciate what a strange and wonderful award season this year has been? I saw The Imitation Game last night for the first time. This is the type of safe filmmaking that has been rewarded by Oscar in many years. Instead, the conversation is Boyhood vs. Birdman. These are two films which cannot at all be described as safe: a film that took 12 years to film vs. a film made to look like it is a single shot. That's a good thing.
BEST PICTURE
So who wins, Boyhood or Birdman? That's the question. Let's be serious. Any other film winning would be a historic upset. When the best picture race becomes this close historically it tends to get down to one thing: head vs. heart. Last year is an example. Gravity is a technical marvel. It won the most awards. But win it came down to the big award, the film that effected us emotionally, 12 Years a Slave, won best picture.
This year, with the unbroken shot, the technical marvel is Birdman. I think it will have a very good night. But the film that effects most people emotionally is Boyhood. So in what I believe is a very close race, I think heart wins the big one.
WINNER: Boyhood
BEST DIRECTOR
And lately, in the head vs. heart battles, head then wins director.
WINNER: Alejandro G Inarittu, Birdman
BEST ACTOR
I do not believe the attempted narrative that Bradley Cooper is going to pull an upset. One indicator I discount is this years SAG awards, because while Redmayne won actor, part of the reason is that Birdman won cast, so both men won. What I do believe is that this is an extremely close race between Keaton and Redmayne. Everyone predicting is grasping at straws.
The straw I am grasping is that this is a Hollywood award and this is the best chance to award a Hollywood career. Also, Redmayne is only 33. If his talent is real, there will be other chances.
WINNER: Michael Keaton, Birdman
BEST ACTRESS
The award was over once Still Alice screened in Toronto.
WINNER: Julianne Moore, Still Alice
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Good job.
WINNER: J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
The third acting lock of the night.
WINNER: Rosanna Arquette, Boyhood
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Two of these nominees are singular achievements by writer/directors. Inherent Vice did not amaze the Oscar voters. Whiplash did.
WINNER: Whiplash
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
In a year with such unique Oscar nominees, there are three that stand out. Birdman and Boyhood, or course. This seems to be a place where a third amazing writer/director can be rewarded.
WINNER: The Grand Budapest Hotel
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
It appears to be a single shot. That make it impossible to ignore.
WINNER: Boyhood
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
The most distinct cinematic vision of the past 20 films has been the filmmaking of Wes Anderson. This is a good opportunity to reward that.
WINNER: The Grand Budapest Hotel
BEST FILM EDITING
Whiplash is cut in such a musical way. It could win, but I think the achievement of assembling 12 years of footage is too much to overlook.
WINNER: Boyhood
BEST MAKEUP
This tends to be most makeup. And does anyone recognize Tilda Swinton in my predicted winner?
WINNER: The Grand Budapest Hotel
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Alexandre Desplat is overdue, but he is double nominated and no clear choice between the two means a split vote, which allows a beautiful traditional score to slip through.
WINNER: The Theory of Everything
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
This is where the guilt for not nominating Selma in more categories effects a category.
WINNER: "Glory", Selma
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
The most distinct cinematic vision of the past 20 films has been the filmmaking of Wes Anderson. This is a good opportunity to reward that.
WINNER: The Grand Budapest Hotel
BEST SOUND EDITING
This does seem to always go the war film. Somehow it seems to be magical to place in all those bullet sounds! At least year it goes to a deserving film.
WINNER: American Sniper
BEST SOUND MIXING
This is the sound award that tends to go to musicals. While there is no singing in Whiplash, it is very musical.
WINNER: Whiplash
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
The most fanciful visuals tends to do well here.
WINNER: Interstellar
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Lego Movie would have one. This win is by default.
WINNER: How To Train Your Dragon 2
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Only one nominee seems to have gotten all the press and is the right feel of newsworthiness. Which seems to be more important then the fact it is also really, really good.
WINNER: CITIZENFOUR
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Simply put, only one film is nominated in any other category
WINNER: Ida
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
"Feast" seems to be the frontrunner. But there seems to be an anti-Disney bias in this category, and there is a clear alternative this year in a beautiful allegory about bullying.
WINNER: The Dam Keeper
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Just as it seemed like the Holocaust dominated the documentary feature category for about a decade , the documentary short in the best decade has been dominated by Iraq War veterans. I'm going with the film concerning that issue.
WINNER: Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
I'm taking the crisis hotline short here for a deferent reason. While the casts of the other four are all unknowns, this short stars previous acting nominees Sally Hawkins and Jim Broadbent.
WINNER: The Phone Call
BEST PICTURE
So who wins, Boyhood or Birdman? That's the question. Let's be serious. Any other film winning would be a historic upset. When the best picture race becomes this close historically it tends to get down to one thing: head vs. heart. Last year is an example. Gravity is a technical marvel. It won the most awards. But win it came down to the big award, the film that effected us emotionally, 12 Years a Slave, won best picture.
This year, with the unbroken shot, the technical marvel is Birdman. I think it will have a very good night. But the film that effects most people emotionally is Boyhood. So in what I believe is a very close race, I think heart wins the big one.
WINNER: Boyhood
BEST DIRECTOR
And lately, in the head vs. heart battles, head then wins director.
WINNER: Alejandro G Inarittu, Birdman
BEST ACTOR
I do not believe the attempted narrative that Bradley Cooper is going to pull an upset. One indicator I discount is this years SAG awards, because while Redmayne won actor, part of the reason is that Birdman won cast, so both men won. What I do believe is that this is an extremely close race between Keaton and Redmayne. Everyone predicting is grasping at straws.
The straw I am grasping is that this is a Hollywood award and this is the best chance to award a Hollywood career. Also, Redmayne is only 33. If his talent is real, there will be other chances.
WINNER: Michael Keaton, Birdman
BEST ACTRESS
The award was over once Still Alice screened in Toronto.
WINNER: Julianne Moore, Still Alice
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Good job.
WINNER: J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
The third acting lock of the night.
WINNER: Rosanna Arquette, Boyhood
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Two of these nominees are singular achievements by writer/directors. Inherent Vice did not amaze the Oscar voters. Whiplash did.
WINNER: Whiplash
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
In a year with such unique Oscar nominees, there are three that stand out. Birdman and Boyhood, or course. This seems to be a place where a third amazing writer/director can be rewarded.
WINNER: The Grand Budapest Hotel
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
It appears to be a single shot. That make it impossible to ignore.
WINNER: Boyhood
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
The most distinct cinematic vision of the past 20 films has been the filmmaking of Wes Anderson. This is a good opportunity to reward that.
WINNER: The Grand Budapest Hotel
BEST FILM EDITING
Whiplash is cut in such a musical way. It could win, but I think the achievement of assembling 12 years of footage is too much to overlook.
WINNER: Boyhood
BEST MAKEUP
This tends to be most makeup. And does anyone recognize Tilda Swinton in my predicted winner?
WINNER: The Grand Budapest Hotel
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Alexandre Desplat is overdue, but he is double nominated and no clear choice between the two means a split vote, which allows a beautiful traditional score to slip through.
WINNER: The Theory of Everything
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
This is where the guilt for not nominating Selma in more categories effects a category.
WINNER: "Glory", Selma
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
The most distinct cinematic vision of the past 20 films has been the filmmaking of Wes Anderson. This is a good opportunity to reward that.
WINNER: The Grand Budapest Hotel
BEST SOUND EDITING
This does seem to always go the war film. Somehow it seems to be magical to place in all those bullet sounds! At least year it goes to a deserving film.
WINNER: American Sniper
BEST SOUND MIXING
This is the sound award that tends to go to musicals. While there is no singing in Whiplash, it is very musical.
WINNER: Whiplash
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
The most fanciful visuals tends to do well here.
WINNER: Interstellar
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Lego Movie would have one. This win is by default.
WINNER: How To Train Your Dragon 2
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Only one nominee seems to have gotten all the press and is the right feel of newsworthiness. Which seems to be more important then the fact it is also really, really good.
WINNER: CITIZENFOUR
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Simply put, only one film is nominated in any other category
WINNER: Ida
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
"Feast" seems to be the frontrunner. But there seems to be an anti-Disney bias in this category, and there is a clear alternative this year in a beautiful allegory about bullying.
WINNER: The Dam Keeper
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Just as it seemed like the Holocaust dominated the documentary feature category for about a decade , the documentary short in the best decade has been dominated by Iraq War veterans. I'm going with the film concerning that issue.
WINNER: Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
I'm taking the crisis hotline short here for a deferent reason. While the casts of the other four are all unknowns, this short stars previous acting nominees Sally Hawkins and Jim Broadbent.
WINNER: The Phone Call
Wednesday, January 14, 2015
Oscar nominations (the rest)
Best Adapted Screenplay
American Sniper
Gone Girl
The Imitation Game
The Theory of Everything
Whiplash
Best Original Screenplay
Birdman
Boyhood
The Grand Budapest Hotel
A Most Violent Year
Nightcrawler
Best Cinematography
Birdman
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Interstellar
Mr. Turner
Unbroken
Best Costume Design
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Inherent Vice
Into The Woods
Maleficent
Best Editing
American Sniper
Birdman
Boyhood
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Whiplash
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Guardians of the Galaxy
The Theory of Everything
Best Original Score
Gone Girl
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Interstellar
The Theory of Everything
Best Original Song
"Lost Stars" (Begin Again)
"Ryan's Song" (Boyhood)
"Yellow Flicker Beat" (The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1)
"Everything is Awesome" (The LEGO Movie)
"Glory" (Selma)
Best Production Design
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Interstellar
Into The Woods
Mr. Turner
Best Sound Editing
American Sniper
Birdman
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Guardians of the Galaxy
Interstellar
Best Sound Mixing
American Sniper
Birdman
Guardians of the Galaxy
The Imitation Game
Whiplash
Best Visual Effects
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Godzilla
Guardians of the Galaxy
Interstellar
X-Men: Days of Future Past
Best Animated Feature
The Book of Life
The Boxtrolls
How to Train Your Dragon 2
The LEGO Movie
The Tale of Princess Kaguya
Best Documentary Feature
CITIZENFOUR
Finding Vivian Maier
Life Itself
The Overnighters
Virunga
Best Foreign Language Film
Force Majeure (Switzerland)
Ida (Poland)
Leviathan (Russia)
Timbuktu (Mauritania)
Wild Tales (Argentina)
American Sniper
Gone Girl
The Imitation Game
The Theory of Everything
Whiplash
Best Original Screenplay
Birdman
Boyhood
The Grand Budapest Hotel
A Most Violent Year
Nightcrawler
Best Cinematography
Birdman
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Interstellar
Mr. Turner
Unbroken
Best Costume Design
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Inherent Vice
Into The Woods
Maleficent
Best Editing
American Sniper
Birdman
Boyhood
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Whiplash
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Guardians of the Galaxy
The Theory of Everything
Best Original Score
Gone Girl
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Interstellar
The Theory of Everything
Best Original Song
"Lost Stars" (Begin Again)
"Ryan's Song" (Boyhood)
"Yellow Flicker Beat" (The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1)
"Everything is Awesome" (The LEGO Movie)
"Glory" (Selma)
Best Production Design
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Interstellar
Into The Woods
Mr. Turner
Best Sound Editing
American Sniper
Birdman
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Guardians of the Galaxy
Interstellar
Best Sound Mixing
American Sniper
Birdman
Guardians of the Galaxy
The Imitation Game
Whiplash
Best Visual Effects
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Godzilla
Guardians of the Galaxy
Interstellar
X-Men: Days of Future Past
Best Animated Feature
The Book of Life
The Boxtrolls
How to Train Your Dragon 2
The LEGO Movie
The Tale of Princess Kaguya
Best Documentary Feature
CITIZENFOUR
Finding Vivian Maier
Life Itself
The Overnighters
Virunga
Best Foreign Language Film
Force Majeure (Switzerland)
Ida (Poland)
Leviathan (Russia)
Timbuktu (Mauritania)
Wild Tales (Argentina)
Monday, January 12, 2015
Oscar nomination predictions (acting)
Best Actor
Cumberbatch, Keaton and Redmayne: all three have been in the conversation for the win since each performance was seen by the public. All three are locks.
Less sure about Oyelowo, but it does seem like a performance to award.
The other person who has been in the predictions list for a long time is Steve Carrell for Foxcatcher. But as love for the film fades, love for the performance has faded. Now there seems to be dispute as to whether his performance is supporting or lead.
Which has left an open slot for a surprise. The performance that has popped up in the precursors is in the film that has gained late, Nightcrawler. I am predicting a surprise nomination to that film.
Predictions
Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game)
Jake Gyllenhaal (Nightcrawler)
Michael Keaton (Birdman)
David Oyelowo (Selma)
Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything)
Best Actress
The fifth slot is the tough slot here. Conventional wisdom has the race between two little seen films: Jennifer Aniston in Cake and Amy Adams in Big Eyes. Aniston has campaigned hard and I think that will be rewarded.
I will be shocked if any of the other four are not nominated, especially Moore, who is a near lock for the win.
Predictions
Jennifer Aniston (Cake)
Felicity Jones (The Theory of Everything)
Julianne Moore (Still Alice)
Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl)
Reese Witherspoon (Wild)
Best Supporting Actor
I have been telling friends someone would jump up and take the Duvall default pick. I'm still waiting... and I don't see anyone taking the spot.
I cannot come up with a good argument for any nominations but the five below.
Predictions
Robert Duvall (The Judge)
Ethan Hawke (Boyhood)
Edward Norton (Birdman)
Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher)
J.K. Simmons (Whiplash)
Best Supporting Actress
Stone and Arquette are in the big two films. The third biggest film is Imitation Game, and that's the third nominee. And Meryl Streep is the most respected actor alive.
Rene Russo has gained with Nightcrawler gaining ground, but...
Jessica Chastain was forced by contract to not mention A Most Violent Year while campaigning for Interstellar. Many know what happened, and I think she gained some sympathy. And I think most voter know which film they prefer.
Predictions
Patricia Arquette (Boyhood)
Jessica Chastain (A Most Violent Year)
Keira Knightly (The Imitation Game)
Emma Stone (Birdman)
Meryl Streep (Into the Woods)
Cumberbatch, Keaton and Redmayne: all three have been in the conversation for the win since each performance was seen by the public. All three are locks.
Less sure about Oyelowo, but it does seem like a performance to award.
The other person who has been in the predictions list for a long time is Steve Carrell for Foxcatcher. But as love for the film fades, love for the performance has faded. Now there seems to be dispute as to whether his performance is supporting or lead.
Which has left an open slot for a surprise. The performance that has popped up in the precursors is in the film that has gained late, Nightcrawler. I am predicting a surprise nomination to that film.
Predictions
Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game)
Jake Gyllenhaal (Nightcrawler)
Michael Keaton (Birdman)
David Oyelowo (Selma)
Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything)
Best Actress
The fifth slot is the tough slot here. Conventional wisdom has the race between two little seen films: Jennifer Aniston in Cake and Amy Adams in Big Eyes. Aniston has campaigned hard and I think that will be rewarded.
I will be shocked if any of the other four are not nominated, especially Moore, who is a near lock for the win.
Predictions
Jennifer Aniston (Cake)
Felicity Jones (The Theory of Everything)
Julianne Moore (Still Alice)
Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl)
Reese Witherspoon (Wild)
Best Supporting Actor
I have been telling friends someone would jump up and take the Duvall default pick. I'm still waiting... and I don't see anyone taking the spot.
I cannot come up with a good argument for any nominations but the five below.
Predictions
Robert Duvall (The Judge)
Ethan Hawke (Boyhood)
Edward Norton (Birdman)
Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher)
J.K. Simmons (Whiplash)
Best Supporting Actress
Stone and Arquette are in the big two films. The third biggest film is Imitation Game, and that's the third nominee. And Meryl Streep is the most respected actor alive.
Rene Russo has gained with Nightcrawler gaining ground, but...
Jessica Chastain was forced by contract to not mention A Most Violent Year while campaigning for Interstellar. Many know what happened, and I think she gained some sympathy. And I think most voter know which film they prefer.
Predictions
Patricia Arquette (Boyhood)
Jessica Chastain (A Most Violent Year)
Keira Knightly (The Imitation Game)
Emma Stone (Birdman)
Meryl Streep (Into the Woods)
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