Oscar predictions

Can we pause for a second to appreciate what a strange and wonderful award season this year has been? I saw The Imitation Game last night for the first time. This is the type of safe filmmaking that has been rewarded by Oscar in many years. Instead, the conversation is Boyhood vs. Birdman. These are two films which cannot at all be described as safe: a film that took 12 years to film vs. a film made to look like it is a single shot. That's a good thing.

BEST PICTURE

So who wins, Boyhood or Birdman? That's the question. Let's be serious. Any other film winning would be a historic upset. When the best picture race becomes this close historically it tends to get down to one thing: head vs. heart. Last year is an example. Gravity is a technical marvel. It won the most awards. But win it came down to the big award, the film that effected us emotionally, 12 Years a Slave, won best picture.

This year, with the unbroken shot, the technical marvel is Birdman. I think it will have a very good night. But the film that effects most people emotionally is Boyhood. So in what I believe is a very close race, I think heart wins the big one.
WINNER: Boyhood

BEST DIRECTOR

And lately, in the head vs. heart battles, head then wins director.

WINNER: Alejandro G Inarittu, Birdman

BEST ACTOR

I do not believe the attempted narrative that Bradley Cooper is going to pull an upset. One indicator I discount is this years SAG awards, because while Redmayne won actor, part of the reason is that Birdman won cast, so both men won. What I do believe is that this is an extremely close race between Keaton and Redmayne. Everyone predicting is grasping at straws.

The straw I am grasping is that this is a Hollywood award and this is the best chance to award a Hollywood career. Also, Redmayne is only 33. If his talent is real, there will be other chances.
WINNER: Michael Keaton, Birdman

BEST ACTRESS

The award was over once Still Alice screened in Toronto.
WINNER: Julianne Moore, Still Alice

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Good job.

WINNER: J.K. Simmons, Whiplash

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

The third acting lock of the night.

WINNER: Rosanna Arquette, Boyhood

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Two of these nominees are singular achievements by writer/directors. Inherent Vice did not amaze the Oscar voters. Whiplash did.
WINNER: Whiplash

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

In a year with such unique Oscar nominees, there are three that stand out. Birdman and Boyhood, or course. This seems to be a place where a third amazing writer/director can be rewarded.
WINNER: The Grand Budapest Hotel

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

It appears to be a single shot. That make it impossible to ignore.
WINNER: Boyhood

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

The most distinct cinematic vision of the past 20 films has been the filmmaking of Wes Anderson. This is a good opportunity to reward that.
WINNER: The Grand Budapest Hotel

BEST FILM EDITING

Whiplash is cut in such a musical way. It could win, but I think the achievement of assembling 12 years of footage is too much to overlook.
WINNER: Boyhood

BEST MAKEUP

This tends to be most makeup. And does anyone recognize Tilda Swinton in my predicted winner?
WINNER: The Grand Budapest Hotel

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Alexandre Desplat is overdue, but he is double nominated and no clear choice between the two means a split vote, which allows a beautiful traditional score to slip through.
WINNER: The Theory of Everything

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

This is where the guilt for not nominating Selma in more categories effects a category.
WINNER: "Glory", Selma

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

The most distinct cinematic vision of the past 20 films has been the filmmaking of Wes Anderson. This is a good opportunity to reward that.
WINNER: The Grand Budapest Hotel

BEST SOUND EDITING

This does seem to always go the war film. Somehow it seems to be magical to place in all those bullet sounds! At least year it goes to a deserving film.
WINNER: American Sniper

BEST SOUND MIXING

This is the sound award that tends to go to musicals. While there is no singing in Whiplash, it is very musical.
WINNER: Whiplash

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

The most fanciful visuals tends to do well here.
WINNER: Interstellar

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Lego Movie would have one. This win is by default.
WINNER: How To Train Your Dragon 2

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Only one nominee seems to have gotten all the press and is the right feel of newsworthiness. Which seems to be more important then the fact it is also really, really good.
WINNER: CITIZENFOUR

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Simply put, only one film is nominated in any other category
WINNER: Ida

BEST ANIMATED SHORT
"Feast" seems to be the frontrunner. But there seems to be an anti-Disney bias in this category, and there is a clear alternative this year in a beautiful allegory about bullying.
WINNER: The Dam Keeper

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Just as it seemed like the Holocaust dominated the documentary feature category for about a decade , the documentary short in the best decade has been dominated by Iraq War veterans. I'm going with the film concerning that issue.
WINNER: Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
I'm taking the crisis hotline short here for a deferent reason. While the casts of the other four are all unknowns, this short stars previous acting nominees Sally Hawkins and Jim Broadbent.
WINNER: The Phone Call