Oscar nomination predictions (acting)

Best Actor

Cumberbatch, Keaton and Redmayne: all three have been in the conversation for the win since each performance was seen by the public. All three are locks.

Less sure about Oyelowo, but it does seem like a performance to award.

The other person who has been in the predictions list for a long time is Steve Carrell for Foxcatcher. But as love for the film fades, love for the performance has faded. Now there seems to be dispute as to whether his performance is supporting or lead.

Which has left an open slot for a surprise. The performance that has popped up in the precursors is in the film that has gained late, Nightcrawler. I am predicting a surprise nomination to that film.

Predictions
Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game)
Jake Gyllenhaal (Nightcrawler)
Michael Keaton (Birdman)
David Oyelowo (Selma)
Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything)


Best Actress

The fifth slot is the tough slot here. Conventional wisdom has the race between two little seen films: Jennifer Aniston in Cake and Amy Adams in Big Eyes. Aniston has campaigned hard and I think that will be rewarded.

I will be shocked if any of the other four are not nominated, especially Moore, who is a near lock for the win.

Predictions
Jennifer Aniston (Cake)
Felicity Jones (The Theory of Everything)
Julianne Moore (Still Alice)
Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl)
Reese Witherspoon (Wild)


Best Supporting Actor

I have been telling friends someone would jump up and take the Duvall default pick. I'm still waiting... and I don't see anyone taking the spot.

I cannot come up with a good argument for any nominations but the five below.

Predictions
Robert Duvall (The Judge)
Ethan Hawke (Boyhood)
Edward Norton (Birdman)
Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher)
J.K. Simmons (Whiplash)


Best Supporting Actress

Stone and Arquette are in the big two films. The third biggest film is Imitation Game, and that's the third nominee. And Meryl Streep is the most respected actor alive.

Rene Russo has gained with Nightcrawler gaining ground, but...

Jessica Chastain was forced by contract to not mention A Most Violent Year while campaigning for Interstellar. Many know what happened, and I think she gained some sympathy. And I think most voter know which film they prefer.

Predictions
Patricia Arquette (Boyhood)
Jessica Chastain (A Most Violent Year)
Keira Knightly (The Imitation Game)
Emma Stone (Birdman)
Meryl Streep (Into the Woods)