Oscar predictions

Before starting on the categories, a couple of notes. Sometimes it is the campaign, not the movie. That was notable this year, as I believe Lincoln had a real chance to win many Oscars this year -- it has 12 nominations -- but instead will go down I believe with one of the worst win percentages in Oscar history, going 1 for 12 in category wins.

The campaign for Lincoln seemed to be saying that you were a lesser person if you prefer another film. In other words, it gave off just the self-important vibe that the film did such a great job of avoiding. Whoever ran that campaign blew a significant opportunity.

And now, the categories:

BEST PICTURE

Funny how when the nominations came out how Argo seemed to be an also-ran. Then it won pretty much every precursor from that point forward. Now it seems clear if the Academy still allowed write-ins, Ben Affleck would win best director. But he will win one Oscar, as he is one of the nominated producers.

Winner: Argo

BEST DIRECTOR

Since write-ins are not allowed, none of the precursors matter. Instead of looking at who will win, first it is worth looking at who is going to lose.As Lincoln has faded, I believe Spielberg's chances have faded. A also have a hard time thinking this will go to the directors of an art house film or a foreign film. That leaves David O. Russell and Ang Lee. At that point, who had the greater achievement? While Russell did a fantastic job with his actors, and could win, I am going with the director who took an unfilmable book and got it filmed. It is the more impressive achievement.

Winner: Ang Lee, Life of Pi

BEST ACTOR

This category has not bunched an inch. Daniel Day Lewis disappeared into a tough role. It's an amazing achievement.

Winner: Daniel Day Lewis, Lincoln

BEST ACTRESS

When the nominations came out, this looked like Jessica Chastain had it in the bag. Then Jennifer Lawrence appeared to have momentum. And they both are still in the race. But I felt months ago that the older academy would move in the direction of the realistic portrayal of old age, and I have come back all the way around to that thinking.

Winner: Emmanuelle Riva, Amour

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Tommy Lee Jones appeared to be the front runner, and indeed he won the SAG award. But he never disappeared into the role, and so I think people are looking for other options. The reports I read has one actor as clearly doing the most campaigning, and the fact he is a living legend who hasn't won in 30 years doesn't hurt either.

Winner: Robert DeNiro, Silver Linings Playbook

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

This race was over as soon as the "I Dreamed a Dream" performance was seen in the first trailer last summer.

Winner: Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

I have been predicting an upset for David O Russell in this category for awhile, but I'm backing off the prediction. Argo has to win something other than best picture, right? And the fact it won the WGA award seems to make this a possible win.

Winner: Argo

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Been going back and forth over the two best picture nominees in this category. But while Amour feels to me more of a director's achievement, Django Unchained seems more of a writer's.

Winner: Django Unchained

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Wreck It Ralph has seemed like the front runner for awhile, but this is the Oscars, and they tend to be older. Video Games aren't its forte. I'll go for the more classic period setting.

Winner: Brave

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Amour has never surrendered the front runner status it has had all season.

Winner: Amour

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Searching for Sugarman has never surrendered the front runner status it has had all season.

Winner: Searching for Sugarman

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Richard Parker will eat you if you think he is not the greatest achievement of the year.

Winner: Life of Pi

BEST SOUND MIXING

This is usually a good category for musicals, and the added difficulty of capturing the singing live tips the scale.

Winner: Les Miserables

BEST SOUND EDITING

Skyfall has a real chance here, but I think Life of Pi gets the votes Hugo got in the technicals: when in doubt, it was good in everything.

Winner; Life of Pi

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

A genuine toss-up this year, as Life of Pi and Les Miserables would not surprise me. But sometimes different is what seems to tip the scales, and that would mean one film this year.

Winner: Anna Karenina

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

This is the easiest pick of the night.

Winner: Skyfall (Skyfall)

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Thomas Newman is so overdue, that it is tempting to pick Skyfall. But a lot of times, the first time nominee who finally gets through is rewarded. And it doesn't hurt that it's really good work.

Winner: Life of Pi

BEST MAKEUP

When in doubt, predict most makeup.

Winner: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

BEST FILM EDITING

This is usually one of the strongest corollaries with Best Picture. And I think Argo's going to win Best Picture...

Winner: Argo

BEST COSTUMES

Period piece? Check. Rather ornate? Check. Calls attention to itself? Check.

Winner: Anna Karenina

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

I've been all prepared to predict Roger Deakins would finally win for Skyfall. But as Life of Pi has surged, I've changed my mind. Also, the academy has previously voted for Avatar and Hugo, so really good 3D work seems to be a good way to win here.

Winner: Life of Pi

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

I really think a lot of times the subject matter is more important in this category than the film itself.

Winner: Mondays at Racine

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

Four foreign shorts that are varying degrees of dreary and depressing, and a livelier American short which is just more fun to watch.

Winner: Curfew

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

If you saw it front of Wreck It Ralph, you know that it's an easy vote this year.

Winner: Paperman