Oscar nominations, part 1

I was without a working modem for about a month, so I was unable to post my nomination predictions before the nominations came out. I did write them down, so you'll just have to take my word that these were my actual guesses. Here we go:

BEST PICTURE

The nominees:
Amour
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty

How I did:
Not bad actually. I correctly had nine nominees this year, and got eight of them correctly. I saw more whimsy in the academy, as I had Moonrise Kingdom nominated, and Django Unchained not. Probably let my opinions get in the way, as I liked Moonrise Kingdom better.

Analysis of category:
The immediate reaction is to anoint the battle between the two films with 10+ nominations, Lincoln and Life of Pi. And both have shots. But clearly Argo, with its guild wins, is gathering steam. There is also a chance that they all knock each other out, and Silver Linings Playbook slips in.
The worst campaign was done by Amour. It still is not on 100 screens. Why are they hiding the film from middle America? It now has lost its chance to become talked about, and is unlucky to escape the Foreign Language Film ghetto to get wins in any other category.

BEST DIRECTOR

The nominees:
Michael Haneke (Amour)
Benh Zeitlin (Beasts of the Southern Wild)
Ang Lee (Life of Pi)
Steven Spielberg (Lincoln)
David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook)

How I did:
Everyone struggled with this category, as surefire shots as Ben Affleck (Argo), Tom Hooper (Les Miserables), and Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thurty) got passed over. I got the Hooper miss correctly, but I had the other two being nominated. I did not think Zeitlin (too green), and Russell would get nominated. Russell has rustled a few feathers over the years, but I guess those features are more in the other branches.

Analysis of category:
The two former winners, Spielberg and Lee, seem to be the most likely winners. I'm leaning towards the Hollywood royalty of Spielberg winning again.

BEST ACTOR

The nominees:
Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook)
Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)
Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables)
Joaquin Phoenix (The Master)
Denzel Washington (Flight)

How I did:
I thought Phoenix's comments about awards, plus the fact that many people did not like his film, would cost him a nomination. I had John Hawkes (The Sessions) nominated instead.

Analysis of category:
Daniel Day-Lewis is one of the few sure things this year.

BEST ACTRESS

The nominees:
Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty)
Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)
Emmanuelle Riva (Amour)
Quvenzhane Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild)
Naomi Watts (The Impossible)

How I did:
I thought the former winner Marion Cotillard (Rust and Bone) was popular enough in Hollywood to get nominated. So I thought the oldest (Riva) and youngest (Wallis) nominees ever were fighting for the last slot, when actually they both beat Cotillard. I had Wallis beating Riva for the final slot.

Analysis of category:
This looks like a battle between Chastain and Lawrence. I think it's about a dead heat between them.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

The nominees:
Alan Arkin (Argo)
Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook)
Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master)
Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln)
Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained)

How I did:
I thought with three nomination caliber performances in Django Unchained, with Samuel L. Jackson and Leonardo Decaprio included, would cancel each other out. I had the fifth slot going to another previous winner, Javier Bardem for Skyfall.

Analysis of category:
All five nominees have won previously. So we don't need to look for anyone being overdue for a win. I think this is a competition between Jones and DeNiro, two key performances in major nominees.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

The nominees:
Amy Adams (The Master)
Sally Field (Lincoln)
Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)
Helen Hunt (The Sessions)
Jacki Weaver (Silver Linings Playbook)

How I did:
One rule for Oscar predictions is that best picture nominees do a little better in other categories than in the other awards, and I missed the most obvious example of it this year, which is Weaver. I had Maggie Smith for The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel instead.

Analysis of category:
Hathaway had this as soon as she finished singing I Dreamed a Dream.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The nominees:
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Lincoln
Life of Pi
Silver Linings Playbook

How I did:
I overrated the Writer's Guild nominations in both writing categories. I had The Perks of Being a Wallflower, which was nominated for a WGA nomination, over WGA ineligible Beasts of the Southern Wild.

Analysis of category:
This would seem to be a good place to reward David O. Russell for co-writing and directing Silver Linings Playbook.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

The nominees:
Amour
Django Unchained
Flight
Moonrise Kingdom
Zero Dark Thirty

How I did:
I did correctly see that the WGA ineligible Amour would be nominated, but I threw out Flight when I should have thrown out Looper.

Analysis of category:
Process of elimination can successfully eliminate all five films. This category is wide open.