Oscar nomination predictions (picture)

The tough part about predicting Oscar nominations is the preferential system that no one uses. To get Oscar nominations, one has to be loved, not just liked.

This year, there is only one film that I am absolutely confident will be nominated, and that is Spotlight. With its combination of subject matter, reviews, and awards, I just can't see it missing.

Next, there are two films that have plenty of buzz, but are completely different than any other film in the race. Unique is good in this race. It means not splitting the vote with another film. Those two films are The Big Short and The Revenant. I have both of those films being nominated.

The whole liked vs loved conundrum has bothered me with Bridge of Spies. I have been skeptical as I saw this a film that would be liked. But it keeps showing up in awards consideration, and it has a bit of an old fashioned feel which will appeal to the older voters. And Steven Spielberg has his fanbase in Hollywood. That's our fourth film.

Are there enough younger voters? The Academy will have you believe its ranks have swelled with younger voters. Ultimately I don't see it from past years' nominations. The film I believe that will reflect this is Straight Outta Compton. If there are enough younger voters I think it will slip in, possibly with no other nominations. I am predicting it will just miss.

Science Fiction is not a genre that usually gets represented at the Oscars. So the odds were against Star Wars getting nominated. There was a rare occurrence in 2009 when both Avatar and District 9 were both nominated. I certainly don't see three sci fi films getting in. And in the rankings of quality sci fi, Star Wars this year falls behind the realism of The Martian and the oh-my-god spectacle that is Mad Max: Fury Road. With all of the votes that I think those two films will get, and the rare occurrence of two sci fi films getting nominated, I just don't see enough votes left for Star Wars.

The Academy is still overwhelmingly male. So I think this year's three female dominant films will bump against each other. Brooklyn is so charming, and Carol is so artful, that I suspect that Room is left out. Also, Brooklyn has four times the box office of Room, so I think the disappointing box office of Room will hurt. While Carol is just getting started, its a Weinstein film. Its campaign was better run than Room's.

Inside Out? Animation struggles. Trumbo? A movie to like, a movie to respect. But I don't see love. Sicario? Too dark. Hateful Eight? Too dark. I don't see anything else getting in. I have the field at eight.

The nomination predictions:
The Big Short
Bridge of Spies
Brooklyn
Carol
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Spotlight

Sunday 1/10/16

I am writing this during the Golden Globes. The is the final indicator before making my Oscar predictions. No, not who wins the awards -- they are irrelevant. But most years I tweak one or two predictions based on audience reactions. Besides, with Ricky Gervais hosting, it is bound to be entertaining.

*****

As a Pittsburgh Steelers fan, I would like to send my heartfelt thanks to Adam Pac-Man Jones just for being you. And to the Cincinnati Bengals, I would like to send a heartfelt HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA.

*****

I actually did not get to see the Bengals hand the game to the Steelers. I was one my way home from a unique experience that does have a movie connection. Maybe there are more opportunities in New York and Los Angeles for unique movie experiences, but I had one last night only available in the Midwest.

My cousin, Barak Coolman, is the head coach for the Valparaiso (IN) High School basketball team. Last night, I got to go see his team play and win. The location was the unique part. They played in the gym used for Hickory High School in Hoosiers. The gym is actually in Knightstown IN, it only holds 600 people, and the court is not close to regulation length or width. It was like a trip back in time, and boy was it fun.

*****

2015 Copeland Newsletter

Scott was diagnosed as being on the autistic spectrum in October (this used to be referred to as Asperger’s Syndrome). Work remains the legal caseload, which means he handles the cases going to court for non-payment. In June he gave a presentation to the Benefits Plus unit (about 50 people) on how to read the child support computer system. He was recently named to the AFSCME negotiating team for pay raises as part of his work as a steward. He was the statistician for Tracey’s high school team for a second season this fall. He was the transportation for Tracey to attend soccer tournaments in Gatlinburg TN, Raleigh NC and even Xenia OH. Scott’s favorite movies this year are Mad Max: Fury Road, Brooklyn, and Spotlight.

 

Laura experienced Ohio State’s second football national championship of our marriage in 2015. Laura should be back yelling at the TV when the Buckeyes against Notre Dame on New Year’s Day. She and Scott attended a series of documentaries in Columbus over the year all on the autistic condition. She remains an avid fan of watching Netflix television, and of Bones and Limitless on actual TV. She remains the household technician, and the coordinator of all medical appointments Tommy (and a few others, as well).

 

Megan, 23, is struggling to find herself emotionally. Early in the year her Nana fulfilled a promise by taking Megan and Allison to Universal Parks Florida to experience the Harry Potter worlds there. Megan spends a lot of time online She remains a voracious reader, making use of her Kindle. Her favorite reads are history and mystery. She has also been trying to write her own fiction, and outreach of the fantasy games she has played online.

 

Tracey, 16, experienced two different soccer experiences. In the spring, he played for Ohio Galaxy, a team now ranked in the top ten in the region after an undefeated regular season and four tournament finals. His Springfield High School team in the fall won two games in his junior year. (Although most of his close friends at high school are from the team.) He completed his third summer in Upward Bound. He is a member of student council at school. He escorted the principal’s daughter to this fall’s Homecoming Dance. He has already seen the new Star Wars movie three times. He got his driver’s license in December, so finally he can drive himself to soccer practice.

 

Tommy, 14, saw last year’s teacher finally retire and replaced by Miss McCaskey, a teacher who knows what she is doing. So life at Roosevelt Middle School is fun again. At home he is rarely seen without his I-Pad playing clips of Mickey Mouse Clubhouse, Dora the Explorer, and The Backyardigans and laughing frequently. He also has become a fan of the movie Frozen, and enjoyed The Peanuts Movie in a theater. This was his third Dream Soccer season with his father as his coach.

 

For Allison, 12, this was the year of Doctor Who. She zipped through all the seasons on Netflix, and found two fans at school. She also dressed as a Doctor for Halloween. In December she joined a fan group in Columbus of which one of Scott’s co-workers is a long time member. She is now in seventh grade at Roosevelt Middle School.  In the summer she was in a production of Seussical Jr, and journey with Aunt Karen’s family to Myrtle Beach. Allison is still busy earning merit badges in Girl Scouts.

 

Our count of cats is now three. Winnie and Lulu, who were born in 2014, were joined by a third girl, Gizmo. Winnie is our climber and explorer. Lulu is our most social. Gizmo still has a kitten’s energy and clearly idolizes the other two.

 

Meow.

 

The Peanuts Movie (2015)

Blue Sky did the best job to date in getting Dr. Seuss right with Horton Hears a Who. Likewise, they have constructed an absolute valentine to the work of Charles Shulz in The Peanuts Movie. The film breaks no new ground. It doesn't have to. It captures what makes Peanuts great. Grade: B+

Sunday 11/8/15

Hey Jose Cuervo, you keep running an ad bragging that The Rolling Stones brought you on tour in 1972. Do you realize that "Miss You" which plays on the ad, did not get released until 1978?

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Actual promo on ABC yesterday. "at 3:30 Florida State at Clemson, brought to you by Kay Jewelers, followed at 8:00 with Minnesota at Ohio State, brought to you by Wal-Mart." Trying to tell us something with the sponsors?

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I am enjoying this season of Amazing Race more than any I can remember. I am sure part of it is not dealing with that stupid Blind Date premise of the previous season. The primary reason is the casting of Justin and Diana. Justin is loud and obnoxious. He also is a huge fan of the show, smart and very, very good at this game. Watching other teams reactions to him and getting flustered at Justin's confidence. It's truly entertaining and I can't wait to see how it comes out.

Valerie and Her Week of Wonders (1970)

How does one describe the indescribable? This is not a logical film. I believe it to be a fever dream from the mind of a 13-year-old girl who is just discovering sexual urges. But that makes it sound much dirtier than it is.

What makes this such a unique achievement for director Jaromir Jires is that its main character is undoubtedly sexual in her thoughts, yet it never feels dirty. Instead, with its striking imagery and odd logic, it portrays fascination with erotic interest in a way I have never seen portrayed. Thanks to TCM for airing it. It is apparently hard to find, but hard to forget. Grade: A-

Truth (2015)

This might seem a bit off topic, but I want to start by talking about my father. Here in Springfield OH, he has been a city commissioner since 1987 and was re-elected this week to his fourth four-year term as mayor. He was unopposed the last two times, and this year won re-election with 63% of the vote. He's been a pretty popular mayor. Yet the article about his election on the Springfield News-Sun website had comments such as these:

"Copeland, AGAIN? Please, someone put me out of my misery."

"What a shame. Springfield deserves better."

"CAN WE SAY TERM LIMITS?"

And this is for a popular politician.

There is a scene in Truth where the main character, Mary Mapes (Cate Blanchett) goes online and reads an ugly comments sections. The music swells, Mary gets emotional, and the words from the comments fill the screen. This is supposed to be one of the emotional moments of the film. My response was an eye-roll.

Seriously. This is a figure in news. There's a reason Honest Trailers in its Inside Out coverage referred to Anger, Fear and Disgust as "your average YouTube comments section". We are supposed to buy that a veteran news producer, who has been doing news work for years, who has just done what she knows is a story with political repercussions, is surprised by negative comments on the internet. Really?

I should be the target audience for Truth. I have an interest in journalism, and my political positions are liberal. Truth is about the CBS report in 2004 that George W. Bush went AWOL from his National Guard duties. Do I believe the story is basically true? You bet. Do I think the CBS team made journalistic errors in its report? That can also be true.

The film doesn't seem to get this. It is based on Mapes' book, and is completely on her side. The film seems to argue that sense the basic truth of the story is accurate that any errors can be forgiven.

This is a story that needs a subtle approach. Somehow I should have known that writer-director James Vanderbilt could not handle this. A writer with such quality scripts as Basic, Darkness Falls, and The Amazing Spider-Man was going to struggle with getting the story correct.

It's a darn shame. It's a fascinating story. The telling of it is always intriguing. The cast is incredible, not just Blanchett. Dan Rather, legend, is portrayed by Robert Redford, legend. Redford is able to carry himself with that amazing confidence that Rather has. I never minded that Redford doesn't quite look like Rather, because he got the attitude.

Two of the researchers, played by Topher Grace and Dennis Quaid, may the best thing in the film. Grace plays Mike Smith, the kind of guy who seems to see conspiracy everywhere. Quaid plays Roger Charles, a retired Lt. Colonel with a deep respect in the military. These two opposites earning each other's respect through hard work is the best part of the movie. Curiously, the third researcher, played by Elizabeth Moss, seems to disappear from the movie.

Ultimately, the film seems to exist as an indictment of how CBS News has become too beholden to its corporate interests to truly do its job. One problem with that conclusion: I already got that from The Insider, a great film.

This review comes out as a bit more negative as I meant. It is always watchable. But this is a topic which could have made a great film. It should have been a great film. Instead, it is merely watchable. It is a missed opportunity. Grade: C+