2017 Oscar predictions (part 1)

Best Picture

Nominees: Arrival; Fences; Hacksaw Ridge; Hell or High Water; Hidden Figures; La La Land; Lion; Manchester By the Sea; Moonlight.

Winner: La La Land. It seems to be running away with the award. Going into the nominations, Moonlight and Manchester by the Sea seemed to be the other two frontrunners, but La La Land is upbeat while the other two are downbeat. La La Land is also helped by being so technically proficient, which is why it has six more nominations than any other film. Hidden Figures has made a late charge but is still way too far behind, Plus Oscar voters love films which celebrate the creative process. Anything but La La Land would be a massive upset.

Best Director

Nominees: Denis Villeneuve, Arrival; Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge; Damien Chazelle, La La Land; Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea; Barry Jenkins, Moonlight.

Winner:Chazelle. The Directors Guild of America awarded Chazelle, coupled with the picture analysis above, makes Chazelle the prohibitive favorite.

Best Actor

Nominees: Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea; Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge; Ryan Gosling, La La Land; Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic; Denzel Washington, Fences.

Winner: Affleck. He's won most of the precursor awards, but lost the Screen Actors Guild to Washington. However, (amazingly) Washington had never won a SAG award before this year. He's the only Oscar winner in this category, and he has two of them. Gosling has an outside chance if La La Land has a complete sweep.

Best Actress

Nominees: Isabelle Huppert, Elle; Ruth Negga, Loving; Natalie Portman, Jackie; Emma Stone, La La Land; Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins.

Winner: Stone. Her performance of  "Audition" is the emotional climax of your likely best picture winner, and it is all about her singing that song. Portman is the only possible upset, but that is extremely unlikely.

Best Supporting Actor

Nominees: Mahershala Ali, Moonlight; Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water; Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea; Dev Patel, Lion; Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals

Winner: Ali. No one other than Shannon would truly shock me. Ali has won the most precursors, and is helped by two other factors: his elegant speech when he won the SAG award, and that he is also excellent in another best picture nominees, Hidden Figures.

Best Supporting Actress

Nominees: Viola Davis, Fences; Naomie Harris, Moonlight; Nicole Kidman, Lion; Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures; Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea.

Winner: Davis. This was her award as soon as Paramount announced this was a supporting performance. She is such the emotional core of Fences, I believe she would have won lead actress had this performance been classified as lead.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Arrival (Eric Heisserer); Fences (August Wilson); Hidden Figures (Allison Schroeder and Theodore Melfi); Lion (Luke Davies); Moonlight (Barry Jenkins and Tarell Alvin McCraney).

Winner: Moonlight. While the Academy might jump at the chance to award a Broadway legend in Wilson, I think this is the place to award the achievement of writer/director Jenkins, whose Moonlight is a major achievement.

Best Original Screenplay

Hell or High Water (Taylor Sheridan); La La Land (Damien Chazelle); The Lobster (Efthymis Filippou, Yorgos Lanthimos); Manchester by the Sea (Kenneth Lonergan); 20th Century Women (Mike Mills).

Winner: Manchester by the Sea. I think all three best picture nominees have a shot here. La La Land could certainly win in a sweep but I think that is seen as more of a technical achievement than a writing one. I think Lonergan wins as much for persisting through the struggles with his previous film, Margaret, which is now near Hollywood legend as he does for the script he delivered here.