Oscar nomination predictions (Picture and Director)

Best Picture

One key to predicting is to look at how the preferential voting effects the choices. The key is that films need to be loved. They need to be the first choices, not the fourth of fifth choices.

The top two contenders in my mind are Boyhood and Birdman. Both are not like anything in the race this year or any other year, for that matter. These two are shoo-ins.

The next tier, in my opinion, are The Imitation Game and Selma. Both are traditional Oscar bait, well done true life stories. Hard to imagine either of them missing.

One other contender during the entire race has been The Theory of Everything. While I sense some fading around this title, the likely only film to gain both Best Actor and Best Actress nominations I think will still have enough to get nominated even though it is similar to The Imitation Game.

One film that seemed to be in the race most of the way is Foxcatcher. But it is a hard film to love. I think of the traditional films, this is the film that has gotten lost in the shuffle. I have moved it out of my list. While we are at it, remember when Unbroken was considered a favorite? There is such a thing as filmmaking being too traditional (and relegating the most interesting part of your story to an end credit crawl).

What has climbed the list and has come up in a lot of precursors is The Grand Budapest Hotel. What at first viewing is a slight entertainment has more weight, and has picked up steam.

The Academy is older, and old pros are valued. Clint Eastwood has about as much respect as any figure, and especially because he has not rested on his laurels. I think it is close on American Sniper. Either it just gets nominated or just misses.

For awhile I was thinking Into the Woods would slip in, especially as there are no musicals in the group above. But Whiplash is about musicians, has a musicality about it, and a you-gotta-see-it performance by J. K. Simmons. I think Whiplash has gained the musical slot.

Finally, I think there is room for one darker film. Most of the above films are uplifting in one form or another. For a long time I thought that film was Gone Girl. But what started as a performance to watch in Jake Gyllenhall has gathered steam for Nightcrawler. I think it has gained the last slot.

Predictions:
American Sniper
Birdman
Boyhood
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Nightcrawler
Selma
The Theory of Everything
Whiplash


Best Director

First, we go with the big two: Birdman and Boyhood. Both directors are in.

The next tier are less sure. I think The Imitation Game is the traditional well made film that gets respected. I am even shakier on Selma's Ava DuVernay, but I think she will be helped because of the history, that no black woman has ever been nominated. Plus she delivered, which is the most important reason.

The fifth slot is wide open. The director's branch appears to be big believers in the auteur theory. There is no prediction which I am rock solid on. I'll predict the auteur of a probable best picture nominee that has yet to be nominated.

Predictions:

Wes Anderson (The Grand Budapest Hotel)
Ava DuVernay (Selma)
Richard Linklater (Birdman)
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (Birdman)
Morten Tyldum (The Imitation Game)