Oscar predictions

To me, the odd part of this year is that many categories are easy calls, but there is a genuine race at the top.

PICTURE

Only three have a chance: The Hurt Locker, Avatar, and Up in the Air. And Up in the Air is a longshot at best. So it really comes down to two. The academy is traditionally older, and more Hollywood insider, than most awards voters. And the voters may be politcally liberal, sort of, but they artistically conservative. And they do tend to reward box office success more than other awards. Given those factors, while The Hurt Locker has won the most awarrds and seems like the front runner, even though I think it is a very close race, I am predicting Avatar for the big prize.

ACTOR

He's a multiple nominee without a win, well liked, really good in this role, and did you see the standing ovation at the Golden Globes? Jeff Bridges is a lock.

ACTRESS

Sandra Bullock is not the shoo-in many predictors would have you believe. I am recalling 2001, when Russell Crowe was winning most of the precursors for A Beautiful Mind, but Denzel Washington won the Oscar for Training Day. What many people forgot then was Oscar history, where Crowe had already won a best actor Oscar and Washington had not. Is that what is at play here?
Or is this like when Julia Roberts finally broke through with Erin Brockovich? America's Sweetheart, finally in a best picture nominee, finally breaks through?
One of those is correct. But I am uneasy about two facts: Bullock has never been nominated before, and Streep keeps getting nominated. And while she keeps winning in other awards shows -- she won a SAG for Doubt, for example, she hasn't won an Oscar since 1983. That's too long. So in what I admit is an upset, I will continue to predict what I have since I first saw Julie & Julia, that Streep is finally going to win Oscar number three.

SUPPORTING

Both categories are locks. Christop Walt has won almost everything for Inglorious Basterds, and Mo'Nique the same for Precious. They are both locks.

DIRECTOR

History is a factor here, as James Cameron doesn't need more Oscars after the three he won for Titanic, and it is waaaay past time a woman won this award. It also helps Kathryn Bigelow did such a good job with The Hurt Locker. Bigelow should win easily.

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Everything I see has The Cove winning.

DOCUMENTARY SHORT

I sure hope its The Last Truck. Not only is it set in my part of the country, but I have actually met Julia Reichert, its co-director, and so I have no pretense of caring about any of the other nominees.

ANIMATED FEATURE

Up has a best picture nomination, a screen play nomination, and others. The other four combine for one additional nomination. Up in a walk.

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Most years, the voters pick with their hearts, voting sentimentality over quality. But since no nominee seems to fit that description, I'll go with the most acclaimed of the five, The White Ribbon.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

WHat seems to be a two fim race between Inglorious Basterds and The Hurt Locker. The Hurt Locker could have a near sweep tonight, and the script gets swept in. But I think this is Quentin Tarentino's consolation prize as he has no chance to win director.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

And this is the consolation prize for Jason Reitman and Up in the Air.

CINEMATOGRAPHY

Avatar ve The Hurt Locker here, and I think Avatar is going to be (unfairly) penalized for having so many effects. The Hurt Locker will be the deserving winner.

ART DIRECTION

This may be the toughest category to call this year. I can make an argument for almost any film. I think the period piece work of The Young Victoria and Sherlock Homes may split voters, so I will predict Avatar.

ANIMATED SHORT

Never bet against Wallace and Gromiy. A MAtter of Loaf and Death is them.

VISUAL EFEECTS

Easiest call of the night. Avatar was truly groundbreaking.

COSTUME DESIGN

Sandy Powell has a lot of respect in the business, plus her work is a period piece: The Young Victoria. Although Coco Before Chanel would not be a surprise.

EDITING

Avatar vs The Hurt Locker. This should be close. I think The Hurt Locker in a very close vote.

SOUND

Avatar took the viewer into another world with its outstanding effects work, but also with an amazing sound design. I think it wins both sound categories for that achievement. This is an indicator category. If The Hurt Locker wins either of these categories, it will win picture.

SCORE
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For the dialogue free sequence telling the story of the mariiage of CArl and Ellie alone, Up wins this category.

SONG

The Weary Kind from Crazy HEart. Alomst as much a lock as Jeff Bridges' win.

MAKEUP

Since Star Trek earned ten times as musch as the other two nominees combined, it wins easy.

LIVE ACTION SHORT

Oh, I'm sorry: We are out of time so I won't be able to make a pick here. The fact I have no clue in this category has nothing to do with it.