Oscar best picture at this point

How exactly is ten nominations changing the game? Well, there's two categories right now. One is for the films that are serious contenders for best picture, and second are for those just trying to get in the game.

The first list in my view is four films: Avatar, The Hurt Locker, Precious, and Up in the Air. All four are finding enough notice in the end of the year mention for me to have a hard time envisioning a list missing any of them. I also expect all four to get director nominations, which may be one way to seperate the pretenders from the contenders when the actual nominations list.

In a sub category is where I place Up. It is unique enough to get many votes for nomination, but I have a hard time seeing an animated film winning the big prize. Still, I place it in position 5.

Since there has not been ten films in over 50 years, no one knows anything as to where the 6-10 films come from. And many seem to be forgetting the preferential nomiations system of the Academy. So what gets nominated may be what has love from a small group rather than acceptance from a large one.

This is where I remain skeptical about An Education. I've seen the film. I've loved it. But I would not put it first on my ballot, and I suspect it won't be first on many voter's ballots. It is the classic film that every one will respect, and nominate the lead performance, but I just don't see the nomination.

The small film that I suspect will rise up and grab a nomination which is being overlooked in a lot of circles is Crazy Heart. Jeff Bridges is a mortal lock for a best actor nomination, and I believe he's the frontrunner to win it. So it will be seen. And its subject matter is unique enough to differentiate it from the other contenders. So I have it getting a nomination.

In a similiar vein, also overlooked for picture, but more mainstream, is Julie and Julia. I also think it will take a slot. As many people have talked about a mainstream film like Star Trek getting a nomination, they forgot that Sci-Fi is not mainstream to Oscar voters (and besides, Sci-Fi voters will vote for Avatar first). But Julie and Julia is mainstream. Plus, with a Streep performance that will be nominated, people will check out the film.

So what else? I guess Inglorious Basterds. It certainly is unlike any of the movies above. I think it is overrated, but I think there will be enough who put it above other choices for a nomination.

That leaves two slots. I think the surprises are above. The lists on most cites probably mention the contenders for the last two slots, in a race between An Education, Nine, Invictus, The Last Station, A Serious Man, A Single Man, and... well, it does seem to be beloved... The Blind Side. I'll guess the musical and the Eastwood film.

What about director? I still think there is room for a curve ball. I mentioned that I believe all four of my primary contenders will be nominated. But there is a healthy contingent of auteurists in the director's branch, and few auteurs in the list of contendersI just listed for picture. Someone from out of the blue would not surprise me. While I am just short of predicting it at this time, do not count out the chances of Michael Haneke getting a nomination for The White Ribbon.