Oscar acting awards

I wrote a month ago on my reads at that point. Since then, some awards and nominations have come inmaking predictions almost a little too easy at this point. Are there really no surprises in these categories?

In Best Actor, I have not changed my mind that George Clooney is a shoo-in for a nomination for Up In The Air. The film is one of the clear Best Picture frontrunners, and he is a main reason why the film works so well. Almost at lock status is Colin Firth for A Single Man. One of those actors who is always good, he's overdue for a nomination which will help his chances even more.

Speaking of overdue: Jeff Bridges does not yet have an Oscar. He has been so good, for so long, and been nominated three times (though some how, not for Fearless, for which I am stll bitter). Crazy Heart is one of those small films that people root for and the general public by and large ignores. I believe Bridges will get to shed the overdue label this year. Obviously, he will be nominated.

Invictus has not quite gotten the traction this awards season many suspected it would. But it is Morgan Freeman. While I am less sure of his nomination than the three above, I have Freeman penciled in for a nomination.

As the awards season began, I though that Jeremy Renner was kind of a fall back nomination if nothing else materialized. Well nothing else in my mind has materializing. When Renner failed to get a Golden Globe nomination, I was downplaying his chances. Then SAG did nominate him, and they are more important. Besides, who else is there to nominate? So at this point, I see the same five nominees in the Oscars as in the SAG awards.

For Best Actress, I remain behind Meryl Streep to win for Julie and Julia. It clearly appears the better liked of her two films this year, and, well, she is ridiculously due to win. She last won over 25 years ago. That's no way to treat our best actress working today.

Two young newcomers are excellent in films that are contenders for best picture. Gabourney Sidibe is amazing in Precious and so is Carey Mulligan in An Education. I would be shocked if either is missing.

Similar to Morgan Freeman is Helen Mirren. I am skeptical about The Last Station doing well in the Oscar race, and actually see it doing worse than Invictus. But it is Helen Mirren. So I am going to pencil her in.

The fifth slot is open. Maggie Gyllenhaal has a legitmate shot for Crazy Heart, which will be seen because of Bridges. I do think that Marion Cotillard has a shot for Nine. But for now, I think the leader for this slot is Sandra Bullock for The Blind Side. For now.

Best Supporting Actress has three locks from two films who are in the best picture race. Both Vera Farmiga and Anna Kendrick are locked in for Up in the Air. Even better is who I have as the loikely winner, as nothing in Mo'Nique's previous work prepared me for how powerful and brave her performance was in Precious.

I see three people fighting for the last two slots. Right now, I have the two previous nominees, Julianne Moore for A Single Man and Penelope Cruz for Nine, ahead of the SAG nominated performance of Diane Kruger for Inglourious Basterds. But I have a hard time seeing anyone else in this race.

Inglourious Basterds has the most likely contender for Best Supporting Actor. Christoph Waltz is simply the best thing about the film. In a weak field, I guess also nomination worthy is Christopher Plummer for The Last Station.

Stanley Tucci is one actor overdue for a nomination, and as the awards season has gone on he seems to be getting more mentions for a film that has disappeared from the awards races, The Lovely Bones, than for the performance opposite Streep in Julie and Julia. Being good in both films actually helps him.

Likewise, Matt Damon was so good in The Informant that it is a shame he hasn't got more traction in Best Actor. But that will help him get nominated for Invictus in this category.

I think the battle for the last slot is between Woody Harrelson in The Messenger and Albert Molina for An Education. Harrelson is a former nominee, but Molina is overdue, and is in the film that will be seen by more Oscar voters to check out Carey Mulligan, so I favor Molina. But any combination of the above six that includes Waltz would not surprise me.

That's how I see the acting races today. I reserve the opportunity to change my opinion, but most of this logic will remain in place until the day the nominations are announced. Then the logic gets changed to match the actual nomination and what I had wrong. The game continues...