A few Oscar notes

It seems to me like eveyone has been kind of thrown off by the ten best picture nominations this year. The buzz seems to be less pronounced so far. But I have a few observations.

Only two summer films are serious contenders for a picture nomination. This summer it seemed like several films got mentioned. But some were just silly. Star Trek? Come on. Harry Potter? No. Art house films? Anyone remember any of them?

But Up seems to be in the picture much as Wall-E last year. And had there been ten nominees last year, I think Wall-E would have been nominated. And The Hurt Locker seems to be just so well made that it has to at least get considered.

The two films that I think have gathered the buzz to clearly be in the race are Precious and Up in the Air. Clearly, the festival darling this year has been Precious. It does not matter what the film is about, when you win audience awards at both Sundance and Toronto, you are in the race. And Up in the Air is proven to most who have seen it that Juno was not a fluke for Jason Reitman. And Oscar voters would like to have their faith in Reitman verified.

In David Poland's list of the top contenders, he has the top four as Up in the Air, Up, Precious and An Education. I'm not seeing the fourth one yet. It might break out, but it hasn't yet. It lloks to me as possibly an art house film that the critics love but that doesn't get enough into the mainstream. The verdict should be in soon, as the film is already in release (in fact, I'm seeing it today).

It's too soon to truly judge on many of the December films. But I do think something is going to jump into the picture that is being overlooked right now. And that the overlooked film is NOT Alvin and the Chipmunks 2.

It also is odd to me that no frontrunner seems to be announced in the best actor race. In my mind, the only lock for that category is George Clooney for Up in the Air. But I don't think voters are ready to hand him a second acting Oscar, so a front runner is going to materialize that is hiding now.

I think the opposite is true in best actress. I think the frontrunner is an obvious one: Meryl Streep for Julie and Julia. Let's face it, she's due. Two actresses have won this category twice since she last won. It has now been more than 25 years! That's just not going to do for the best actress of her generation. Plus, she nailed the charisma and appeal of Julia Child while making it more than just an impersonation.

There way well not be much experience in the category this year. There is a serious chance of nominations for a combination of Abbie Cornish, Saoirse Ronan, Carey Milligan, and the lock nomination of Gabourney Sidibe. When the voters think over the experience of this field, Streep's excellence for over 3 decades will work in her favor.

One other note: there will be five animated feature nominees this year. I count Up, Coraline, The Princess and the Frog, and Ponyo. I have no read on what will be fifth on the list.