Sunday 8/28/16

I always thought Tracey would make our local newspaper before Tommy. The picture above was on the front page of the 8/14/16 Sports section. The boy in the back row looking away from the ball is Tommy. I was thrilled not just because Tommy made the paper but because this event, Dream Soccer, is a special needs soccer event with three age groups, and the group above are the kids I coach. In fact, I am probably just out of range of this picture. Trying to tell the kids to turn around because they are headed to the incorrect goal.

***

Meanwhile, Tracey made the sports page today for exactly the reason I expected he would. He scored his first high school goal for his soccer team yesterday. He is a senior, but has primarily played defense so hasn't attempted many shots in the first three years.

Of course, it helped that the statistician who calls in the scores to the newspaper knew that it was his first goal at the high school level and added a tidbit to the paper. Because the statistician for the soccer team is me.

Sunday Scribblings 7/31/16

This is a partial article posting. I'm not done, but I have done a lot of work and I need a nap.

Analyzing box office: let's look at the box office for the first half of this year, to see what lessons can be learned. I'm going to take the predictions from Box Office Prophets, and the box office from Box Office Mojo. I take the predictions not to point out how many mistakes were made, but to show how expectations were missed so frequently this year. Films are listed in order of release.

13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Bengazi
predicted: $48 million opening; $125 million total
actual: $16 million opening; $52 million total
     Bengazi has become so politically charged that many were skittish about this film. While I believe there is space in the market for an intelligently made political film, no one expects intelligently made from Michael Bay.

Norm of the North
predicted: $15 million opening; $43 million total
actual: $6 million opening; $17 million total
     Moviegoers have caught up with how bad these cheaply made cartoons are.

Ride Along 2
predicted: $37 million opening; $87 million total
actual: $35 million opening; $90 million total
     Unlike many sequels this year, people were ready for the future adventures of the Brothers-in-law.

The 5th Wave
predicted: $13 million opening; $29 million total
actual: $10 million opening; $34 million total
     The Young Adult novel adaption craze is flickering out. As yet another project underperforms, it appears that Harry Potter and The Hunger Games are the outliers and the audience for the rest is limited.

Fifty Shades of Black
predicted: $14 million opening; $27 million total
actual: $5 million opening; $11 million total
     Moviegoers have caught up with how bad these cheaply made Wayans comedies are.

Jane Got A Gun
predicted: $8 million opening; $24 million total
actual: $835 thousand opening; 1.5 million total
     Proof there is such a thing as bad publicity.

Kung Fu Panda 3
predicted: $38 million opening; $131 million total
actual: $41 million opening; $143 million total
     A surprise January release, this mild success suggests that the assumption that family animation only works at certain places in the calendar might be a false assumption. This may be seen as a disappointment to some, but is in line with the drop from the first installment to the second.

The Choice
predicted: $10 million opening; $30 million total
actual: $6 million opening; $18 million total
     The assumption seems to have been that if the film adapts Nicholas Sparks, it is money in the bank. This film suggests that some star power might be needed in the cast. This film sure didn't have any.

Hail, Caesar!
predicted: $18 million opening; $58 million total
actual: $11 million opening; $30 million total
     The Coens may be beloved by critics, but this one may have been too inside Hollywood for general audiences.

Pride and Prejudice and Zombies
predicted: $13 million opening; $32 million total
actual: $5 million opening; $10 million total
     If you want to make a one-joke movie, you need a better joke.

Deadpool
predicted: $58 million opening; $151 million total
actual: $132 million opening; $363 million total


How to be Single
predicted: $20 million opening; $48 million total
actual: $17 million opening; $46 million total

Zoolander 2
predicted: $45 million opening; $105 million total
actual: $13 million opening; $28 million total

Gods of Egypt
predicted: $21 million opening; $43 million total
actual: $14 million opening; $31 million total

Triple 9
predicted: $11 million opening; $23 million total
actual: $6 million opening; $12 million total

London Has Fallen
predicted: $35 million opening; $83 million total
actual: $21 million opening; $62 million total

Whiskey Tango Foxtrot
predicted: $7 million opening; $21 million total
actual: $7 million opening; $23 million total

Zootopia
predicted: $54 million opening; $215 million total
actual: $75 million opening; $341 million total

10 Cloverfield Lane
predicted: $20 million opening; $45 million total
actual: $24 million opening; $72 million total

The Brothers Grimsby
predicted: $10 million opening; $25 million total
actual: $3 million opening; $6 million total

The Bronze
no prediction
actual $386 thousand opening; $615 thousand total
     Here's the list of 1000 screen openings with worse per screen averages: Transylmania, Delgo, Creature, and the grand champion, Oogieloves in the BIG Balloon Adventure. That's it. Sometimes, you got to know your audience. This was always going to be a cult film but nothing more.

The Divergent Series: Allegiant
predicted: $38 million opening; $85 million total
actual: $29 million opening; $66 million total
     Don't split the final book of your series unless you are absolutely sure your audience will follow you. This was a series which needed to complete and get out of the way before starting to lose money. Now it is an incomplete series with a sure money loser left in its final film. Whoops.

Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice
predicted: $200 million opening; $575 million total
actual: $166 million opening; $330 million total

God's Not Dead 2
predicted: $15 million opening; $48 million total
actual: $7 million opening; $20 million total

The Boss
predicted: $27 million opening; $73 million total
actual: $23 million opening; $63 million total

Hardcore Henry
predicted: $10 million opening; $28 million total
actual: $5 million opening; $9 million total
     If your film is supposedly groundbreaking, first make sure it isn't headache inducing.

Barbershop: The Next Cut
predicted: $33 million opening; $71 million total
actual: $20 million opening; $54 million total

The Jungle Book
predicted: $34 million opening; $101 million total
actual: $103 million opening; $362 million total

The Huntsman: Winter's War
predicted: $29 million opening; $81 million total
actual: $19 million opening; $48 million total

Keanu
predicted: $8 million opening; $22 million total
actual: $9 million opening; $20 million total

Mother's Day
predicted: $12 million opening; $43 million total
actual: $8 million opening; $32 million total

Ratchet & Clank
predicted: $6 million opening; $15 million total
actual: $4 million opening; $8 million total
     See: my analysis of Norm of the North

Captain America: Civil War
predicted: $199 million opening; $458 million total
actual: $179 million opening; $406 million total
     While apetitites

Money Monster
predicted: $13 million opening; $30 million total
actual: $14 million opening; $40 million total

The Angry Birds Movie
predicted: $35 million opening; $140 million total
actual: $38 million opening; $106 million total

Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising
predicted: $41 million opening; $100 million total
actual: $21 million opening; $55 million total

The Nice Guys
predicted: $21 million opening; $51 million total
actual: $11 million opening; $36 million total

Alice Through the Looking Glass
predicted: $68 million opening; $172 million total
actual: $26 million opening; $76 million total

X Men: Apocalypse
predicted: $115 million opening; $264 million total
actual: $65 million opening; $155 million total

Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping
predicted: $14 million opening; $38 million total
actual: $4 million opening; $9 million total

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows
predicted: $73 million opening; $200 million total
actual: $35 million opening; $81 million total

The Conjuring 2
predicted: $41 million opening; $90 million total
actual: $40 million opening; $101 million total

Now You See Me 2
predicted: $43 million opening; $100 million total
actual: $22 million opening; $64 million total

Warcraft
predicted: $45 million opening; $101 million total
actual: $24 million opening; $47 million total

Central Intelligence
predicted: $45 million opening; $125 million total
actual: $35 million opening; $125 million total

Finding Dory
predicted: $133 million opening; $399 million total
actual: $135 million opening; $469 million total
     Pixar still rules.

Free State of Jones
predicted: $8 million opening; $32 million total
actual: $7 million opening; $20 million opening
     People don't want to do homework in the summer.

Independence Day: Resurgence
predicted: $100 million opening; $255 million total
actual: $41 million opening; $101 million total
     While not paying Will Smith whatever he wanted was a big mistake, it wasn't the biggest. The biggest mistake was casting two new pilots without the charisma of Harry Connick Jr, let alone Smith.

The Neon Demon
no prediction
opening: $589 thousand opening; $1.3 million total
     Nicolas Winding Refn may be an intriguing topic for critics, but mainstream audiences don't care.

The Shallows
predicted: $12 million opening; $29 million total
actual: $16 million opening; $53 million total

The BFG
predicted: $32 million opening; $125 million total
actual: $18 million opening; $52 million total

The Legend of Tarzan
predicted: $24 million opening; $59 million total
actual: $38 million opening; $121 million total

The Purge: Election Year
predicted: $35 million opening; $78 million total
actual: $31 million opening; $78 million total
     Even though it isn't my cup of tea, I admire how writer-director James DeMonaco has taken this idea and come at it in three different ways. These are sequels that are not just retreads, which is why they succeed. Also, the film was well marketed.

Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates
predicted: $14 million opening; $42 million total
actual: $16 million opening; $43 million total

The Secret Lives of Pets
predicted: $53 million opening; $162 million total
actual: $104 million opening; $296 million total
     Illumination Studios is now up in the level with DreamWorks animation as hitmakers, just behind Disney and Pixar.

Roller Boogie (1979)

Sometimes you are just in the mood for a bad movie. And since TCM showed this a couple of weeks ago, I had it on my DVR.

It is special.

The title part actually isn't that bad. The disco music is tolerable. The camerawork is done by (really) Dean Cundey, so is actually pretty solid. After all, this is the guy who shot Halloween, Who Framed Roger Rabbit, Jurassic Park, and Apollo 13. He knows how to use a camera.

Really. I've seen worse. (I've seen The Apple!)

Then the music stops. Oh dear. This is one of the films that feels like it was written by someone who has never had a conversation. Yet the plot is drawn from the obvious. Is the plot building to a big dance contest? Sure. Is the main character a rich girl slumming with these boogie skaters? Yep. Is the mob muscling in on the rink? Of course.

One detail of the movie deserves special mention. The male lead, who clearly is a good roller skater, is said to be dreaming of going to the Olympics. He may be waiting awhile, as the Olympics have never had roller skating. Huh.

Grade: D

Sunday Scribblings 7/24/16

"My people, I do not believe what I saw. I saw it, but I do not believe." -- Senor Love Daddy (Samuel L. Jackson, Do The Right Thing

I was going to write this week about my general horror that the Republican convention nominated a candidate so unqualified. The Washington Post then summed up my thoughts pretty well.

*****

One of the problems of writing in blog form is there is no deadlines. When I have written for publications in the past, sometimes the deadline forced me to get the story in. I have no such force here. So perfectionism gets in the way. This reared its ugly head in the past month.

This happened because of my attempt and failure to capture the essence of Martin Bevis.

I have been a subscriber to the classic film series at Dayton's Victoria Theatre for over 20 years. During most of that span, Bevis was the organist who played the half hour before the films.

He had a dry wit in his introductions that was infectious. It was impossible to listen to him without smiling. The amazing fact is every time he played it was by memory. He played a different half hour every week, yet I never saw him use sheet music one.

Martin died last spring. While the Cool Films series in Dayton has done a good job providing pre-shows with this year's series, he is terribly missed. I just wish I could do him justice.

*****

Jon Stewart, I have missed you.

Sunday Scribblings 6/12/16

Today is my parents' 51st wedding anniversary. Happy anniversary, mom and dad.

***

In two days is my 19th wedding anniversary. I love you, Laura.

***

Yikes. Read this.

I voted for Bernie Sanders, because I am a liberal and his political positions are closer to mine. But I was always clear that I would support the Democratic nominee. This race was essentially over a few weeks ago, and now it is mathematically over. I have already donated to Hillary Clinton's campaign. I always thought Bernie was a realistic politician. I may have to rethink that.

***

The ad for this product made me laugh the hardest I laughed this week. Oh dear.

***

Summer is here, so one of the best reasons to be a Springfield resident has arrived. Friday was the opening night of the Summer Arts Festival, now in its 50th year.

As usual, Phil Dirt and the Dozers opened. They have played the festival more times than any other act, and I have seen them in concert more than any other act. They are an oldies act founded in 1981, delivered with a sense of fun, musicianship and humor.

Their trademark song is Only You, delivered as they learned it, from an old record with scratches and skips. They do pull out some classics (they lean on the Four Seasons and the Beach Boys a lot) and some more obscure songs. I have never heard the original of Cara Mio, but I know it well due to it being performed by the Dozers every year.

So, as usual, a fun way to kick off the season. I'll be back at Veterans Park tonight for the Springfield Symphony Orchestra.

Hollywood Revue (1929)

This is a strange bird, but then many of the early sound films are. This is what Singin' In The Rain gets so right -- some of the early comical attempts to figure out how to use sound.

Hollywood Revue isn't really a movie. It's a commercial for MGM to show off its stars, and that many of them could use sound well. There is no plot, just a procession of musical numbers and other bits. Conrad Nagel and Jack Benny are the MCs, and Benny does show off his comic timing.

The oddest bit for me features John Gilbert and Norma Shearer performing the balcony scene from Romeo and Juliet, and then being told the dialogue is out of date so performing it a second time throwing out Shakespeare's language for a modern translation.

The best sequence is easily Stan Laurel and Oliver Hardy performing as magicians. None of the comic bits are surprising, but their comic timing is so dead on that I laughed out loud.

Unfortunately, most of the rest of the film just blends together. One big problem is that this is one of the early sound films where the camera is just bolted to the ground. This gives a sameness to all of the performances. While there is some pleasure early, the two hour running time ends up too long.

So the film is interesting as a curio. I'm glad I saw it. But it has dated pretty badly. I doubt I will revisit it.

Grade: C

100 Movies 1990-2014 (90-81)

90. Dead Man Walking (1995) d: Tim Robbins
     It would have been so easy to just create an anti-death penalty lecture. Instead, Robbins delivered a complicated look on how one death penalty case effects everyone involved.

89. Searching For Sugarman (2012) d: Malik Bendjelloul
     One from the strange-but-true file, how Rodriguez became a music superstar in South Africa while virtually unknown in his native United States, and the search by a couple of his fans to find out the truth of the musician. If you haven't seen it and don't know the story, see the film without learning any more to enjoy the surprises the film offers.

88. Chasing Amy (1997) d: Kevin Smith
     I'm a Smith fan, and I think this is easily his best film. Amongst all the typical Smith humor is a dead on look at how the male ego sometimes gets in the way of a genuine romance.

87. Hoop Dreams (1994) d: Steve James
    Spending four years with two high school basketball players, the filmmakers document the journey of chasing sports superstardom.

86. Far From Heaven (2002) d: Todd Haynes
      I don't know how Todd Haynes does it, recreating a 50s melodrama while finding the true emotion underneath, but the power of this film is undeniable.

85. Un Coeur En Hiver (1992) d: Claude Sautet
     The translation of the tile is A Heart in Winter, which perfectly describes how a violin craftsman (Daniel Auteuil) is so comfortable in his life's patterns that he fails to see what joys having more passion in his life would create.

84. About A Boy (2002) d: Chris Weitz, Paul Weitz
     Hugh Grant's best work of his career is portraying a irresponsible 40 year old transformed by a friendship with a 12 year old (Nicholas Hoult). I always felt the Boy in the title is Grant's character.

83. Trainspotting (1996) d: Danny Boyle
    Boyle captures the adrenalin high of drugs while also capturing its lows in quite graphic terms, with a great early lead performance by Ewan McGregor.

82. Toy Story 2 (1999) d: John Lasseter
     The best of the Toy Story movies because while it has all the inventiveness of the series, the emotion of what it means to be an abandoned toy embodied by Jessie. The sequence of "When She Loved Me" tears me up every time I see it.

81. Fargo (1996) d: Joel Coen
     I hearby nominate Marge Gunderson, perfectly embodied by Frances McDormand, as the greatest female hero of the 25 year time period. You betcha.