My Oscar ballot for 2021

PICTURE

Will win: Nomadland

Should win: Nomadland

ACTOR

Will win: Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Should win: Anthony Hopkins, The Father

ACTRESS

Will win: Viola Davis, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Should win: Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman

SUPPORTING ACTOR

Will win: Daniel Kaluuya, Jesus and the Black Messiah

Should win: Paul Raci, Sound of Metal

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Will win: Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari

Should win: Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari

ANIMATED FEATURE

Will win: Soul

Should win: Soul

CINEMATOGRAPHY

Will win: Nomadland

Should win: Nomadland

COSTUMES

Will win: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Should win: Ma Raieny's Black Bottom

DIRECTING

Will win: Chloe Zhao, Nomadland

Should win: Chloe Zhao, Nomadland

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Will win: My Octopus Teacher

Should win: Collective

DOCUMENTARY SHORT

Will Win: A Concerto is a Conversation

Should win: Collette

FILM EDITING

Will win: Sound of Metal

Should win: Nomadland

INTERNATIONAL FILM

Will win: Another Round

Should win: Better Days

MAKEUP

Will win: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Should win: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

ORIGINAL SCORE

Will win: Soul

Should win: Soul

ORIGINAL SONG

Will win: Speak Now, One Night in Miami

Should win: Speak Now, One Night in Miami

PRODUCTION DESIGN

Will win: Mank

Should win: The Father

ANIMATED SHORT

Will win: If Anything Happens I Love You

Should win: If Anything Happens I Love You

LIVE ACTION SHORT

Will win: Two Distant Strangers

Should win: White Eye

SOUND

Will win: Sound of Metal

Should win: Sound of Metal

VISUAL EFFECTS

Will win: Tenet

Should win: Tenet

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Will win: The Father

Should win: The Father

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Will win: Promising Young Woman

Should win: Promising Young Woman

SISKEL & EBERT MEMORIAL CATEGORY

This year's worst nomination is Borat: Subsequent Moviefilm for Adapted Screenplay.

My Oscar ballot

Oscar voters don't just vote for winners in categories; they rank the nominees for best to worst. Having seen all eight of this year's Oscar nominees for Best Picture, I present how I would complete that ballot. For the record, I think the first five are excellent, two are very good, and only #8 in my opinion does not deserve its nomination.

1. Nomadland: If most films are prose, this is poetry. Writer/Director/Producer/Editor/Magician Chloe Zhao has fashioned a fictional character into the very real disappearance of a Nevada town after a factory closes and uses it as an entry point into nomad culture in current day western United States. Most of the people in this movie are playing themselves, yet actors Frances McDormand and David Straithairn fit right in. The film created such a hold on me, and captures the beauty of the West while also capturing the pitfalls of the nomad culture. A truly unique experience.

2. The Father: There have been some good looks at dementia (most notably Still Alice), but this is in a different league. Director Florian Zeller adapted his own French play to place us in the mindset of a man losing touch with reality. The subtle production design and the lead actor, Anthony Hopkins, create a tension almost at the level of a horror film, except this is an everyday horror, not a fantasy one. 

3. Promising Young Woman: Writer/Director Emerald Fennell has fashioned an angry rebuke to the "boys will boys" attitude. She and lead actress Carey Mulligan walk a tightrope with righteous anger and dark comedy. They mostly pull it off -- while the final scene is emotionally correct, it does not make sense the more you think about it. That's one slight flaw. But mostly, this is the angry indictment that rape culture deserves.

4. Minari: Writer/Director Lee Isaac Chung finds a way to get lots of little details right. This story of a family pursuing the American dream, and the strain on a marriage when that dream is not coming true. This dream is trying to grow Korean vegetables in Arkansas. But that simple description does not establish how beautiful the film is, underlined by Emile Mosseri's gorgeous score, my favorite 2020 score after Soul.  

5. Sound of Metal: Has a sound design ever been so essential to a film? Director Darius Marder has delivered a film which uses its unique sound design to places us in the main character's dilemma. The rock n roll drummer played by Riz Ahmed has his hearing rapidly deteriorate and the film has many sequences where we experience that failing hearing for ourselves. It is a unique and powerful experience.

6. Judas and the Black Messiah: The story of Black Panther leader Fred Hampton is a worthy one, and I am glad it was made. My issue was the film? Hampton was 21 when he was murdered, and Bill O'Neal was 20 at the time. Daniel Kaluuya is 32, and LaKeith Stanfield is 29. While both are excellent, they are too old for these characters. For me, this is enough of a flaw to place it behind the five films above, though it is still a very good film. 

7. The Trial of Chicago 7: Has an ending scene ever been more self-defeating? Writer-Director Aaron Sorkin's script, as usual for him, is packed with great dialogue. I was already quite familiar of the trial of leaders of protests during the 1968 Democratic Convention is entertaining during its runtime. But the final scene is invented, and is tonally so wrong that it undermines the credibility of the entire film. So while I enjoy most of this film, and have re-watched it a couple of times, that last scene is a blemish that places it under all but one of the other nominees. Also, Sacha Baron Cohen is 15 years older than the man he plays, Abbie Hoffman, and fails to capture his spirit. He should not have been nominated for this performance. (I would have nominated Mark Rylance instead.)

8. Mank: This is the most disappointing film of the year. It was an exciting project: A biography of Herman Mankiewicz, who wrote Citizen Kane, directed by David Fincher, with Gary Oldman as the title character. Watching the film felt like homework. The hoped for clashes with Orson Welles over Citizen Kane are relegated to the last 15 minutes of the movie. The rest of the movie concerns blah blah blah Louis B Meyer something something William Randolph Hearst and I did not care. This is so inside baseball that it flew past me as a movie buff. The film brightens up in the scenes with Amanda Seyfried, who is very good as Hearst's mistress. This is a David Fincher film, so the technical credits are top notch and deserve most of its nominations. But too often, I was reminded of Denis Leary's six sentence recap of The Doors (1991): "I'm drunk. I'm nobody. I'm drunk. I'm famous. I'm drunk. I'm dead." Except Mank is never nobody in this film, he never becomes truly famous, and he doesn't die at the end. That leaves Mank as: "I'm drunk. I'm drunk. I'm drunk." And I'm bored.

Tom and Jerry (2021)

The title is false advertising. The correct title would be: Some Internet Couple You Won't Care About Have a Big Wedding, There is Boring Intrigue at the Hotel for the Wedding, and Oh Yeah, Tom and Jerry Are There Too.

I will admit to not being a big Tom and Jerry fan. I was always more partial to Sylvester and Tweety myself. But they have the best moments here. My biggest laugh was the Rube Goldberg device that came out of nowhere to trap Jerry. It and all the animals in here are animated, which I think was an interesting choice that mostly worked.

The human stuff is really, really boring and takes up two thirds of the film. I really didn't care if the couple got married or not, which clearly was the intent of the film. Who cares if two spoiled brats gets married?

Chloe Grace Moretz is the human lead here, She cons her way onto the staff of a ritzy hotel just as this wedding planning starts. The details of the con are rather appalling, but we are supposed to like her because, uh, reasons. Michael Pena is the employee who is frequently her antagonist because, uh, reasons. Moretz is always a likeable presence, but that is stretched to the limit here. Not a single human character is compelling enough to justify so much of the movie's running time.

Some people will defend this movie saying, well, it's just for kids. Well there are better options for kids. A lot of them. Grade: D

2020 Theater Experience

In July 2020, I resumed going to the movies. I then stopped again as numbers rose after Halloween, and stayed away until the end of February. This is the list of the movies I saw in a theater in the second half of 2020, and the grades I would give each film (An asterisk means I saw it in a Premium format):

The Climb C+

Freaky* C-

One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest A

Alita: Battle Angel* B+

V for Vendetta A-

Poltergeist B+

Come Play* C

Synchronic B+

The Kid Detective F

Leap B-

Honest Thief* B-

Yellow Rose B+

On The Basis of Sex B

Tenet* (twice) B- 

Kajillionaire C+

The Last Shift C

Akira A+

The New Mutants (twice) A-

Sonic the Hedgehog B

Words on Bathroom Walls A

The Broken Hearts Gallery C+

The Eight Hundred A

Cut Throat City C

Ammonite C

Hillbilly Elegy D+

Memories of Murder A+

On The Rocks C

Trial of the Chicago 7 A

Possessor Uncut A

Bill and Ted Face the Music B+

Inception* A+

Also, I attended the drive-ins a few times after the virus hit, and saw:

Ghostbusters A

Stripes A-

The Goonies B

Gremlins A+

Palm Springs A

Irresistible C

The Aeronauts D

2019 Top Ten List

Here is the 2019 list of my favorite films. Again, note a 2019 film for me is based on when it opened in the Dayton or Columbus area, and has to have played theatrically during 2019. Which means 1917 is not eligible until 2020, but my first film won a 2018 Oscar.

10. If Beale Street Could Talk. Director Barry Jenkins delivers his follow-up to the Best Picture winning Moonlight. Somehow this film did not get as much notice even though it is almost as good. Based on a novel by James Baldwin, this film personalizes the way prejudices of the world causes hurt to the African-American family unit. I am eager to see what female lead Kiki Layne does next.

9. The Mustang. The arthouse film that slipped through the cracks. Based on a real program at a few western US prisoners, the film shows one quiet prisoner, clearly haunted by his past, who bonds with a horse in the program. The film's strength is in its quiet beauty.

8. Marriage Story. I most appreciate how this film shows how demanding divorce can be, even though it does not take sides. It is acted to the hilt by Adam Driver, Scarlet Johansson, and Laura Dern.

7. Booksmart. The funniest movie of the year. I expect to see a lot of great work from the future from this cast. As well as director Olivia Wilde, who shows a lot of ability with her first feature film.

6. Waves. I think one reason this film got overlooked by audiences is that its power cannot be described well without using spoilers. Let me just say this look at how a tragedy transforms a suburban family hit me hard. I especially liked the performances of the two teenagers in this family, portrayed by Taylor Russell and Kelvin Harrison Jr.

5. Midsommar. The cinematography makes this film. This may be the brightest film I have ever seen, and the way the film mines horror out of brightness instead of darkness. I found the effect hypnotic.

4. Knives Out. Writer/Director Rian Johnson brings us the joys of an old fashioned whodunnit with some subtle social commentary to stir it up a little more.

3. Amazing Grace. My vote for the greatest singer of the 20th Century is Aretha Franklin. This film documents her at the height of her abilities, recording a gospel album in 1972.

2. Little Women. When I saw this the first time, I noted how much better Amy is portrayed than in precious versions. The second time I noted how much better Beth is portrayed than in previous versions.

1. Parasite. The Oscars got it right this year. With plot twists I never saw coming, some interesting social commentary, and a cast who plays this to the hilt, this was the most purely entertaining film of the year.

2019 Top Ten List (runners-up)

And now to unveil my annual top 10 films of the year. Same format as previous years: I rank my choices for the top 10, and then an alphabetical list of the ten runners-up. Films are eligible for this list if they first played a theater in 2019 in Columbus, Springfield, or Dayton. This means "2019" films that did not get here until 2020 will be eligible for next year's list, such as 1917 or Just Cause. Meanwhile, two films eligible for 2018 Oscars are in my 2019 top 10.

A word about Netflix. If it played a theater, it is eligible for me. If it did not play a theater, it is not eligible. A theater in Columbus did play The Irishman, Dolemite Is My Name, Marriage Story, and The Two Popes, among others. (Klaus and I Lost My Body did not play until 2020.) American Factory did play Dayton in 2019, so it is eligible, but just missed my top 20.

Before listing my top 10, here are the runners-up, in alphabetical order:

Avengers Endgame. To wrap up all the storylines it did, and actually stick the landing, is a truly amazing feat. Who would have thought a superhero movie would be this perceptive about mourning?

Better Days. This was a hit in its native China, but is relatively unknown here. This is a much more honest look at the effects of high school bullying than I have ever seen in an English language film.

Dolemite Is My Name. The main failing in truly capturing the ragtag charm of Rudy Ray Moore's films is that Eddie Murphy really is too charismatic to play him. But that is my main criticism of one of the funniest films this year.

The Farewell. Sure it captures the difference between American and Chinses culture. But really this film is for everyone who has a grandmother.

A Hidden Life. It's a bit too long, but only Terence Malick could have made this film. His style captures the mindset of an Austrian who during World War II refused to swear loyalty to Hitler.

JoJo Rabbit. Another approach to Adolf Hitler is this comedy which shows the emptiness in the hatred that drove him through the eyes of an innocent boy.

Pain and Glory. Antonio Banderas delivers his best work ever while essentially playing the film's writer-director Pedro Almodovar.

Rocketman. Usually jukebox musicals are not this good. It helps that Elton John's music is better than most.

Toy Story 4. Who would have thought there was this much good material left in the Toy Story franchise?

Western Stars. Bruce Springsteen perform his new album live. It's that simple. But he's one of the best musical storytellers alive.

My Best Picture ballot

The Oscars have a preferential ballot, where members vote by ranking their choices for the categories. If I were a voter, this is how I would vote for Best Picture this year. Last year, I thought four out of eight nominees were undeserving. This year, six I completely endorse, two I understand, and only one do I think is flat out wrong.

1. Parasite. Who, or what, is the parasite? Is the rich family taking advantage of the poor, or is the poor family taking advantage of the rich? It's a comedy, a thriller, a horror film, and sometimes all three at the same time. I never knew where the film was going. Director Bong Joon Ho has delivered the film of the year, one that still has me mulling it over two months after I first saw it.

2. Little Women. The first time I saw it, I was impressed how much better Amy is defined than in other versions. The second time, I was impressed how much better Beth is defined than in other versions. Writer-director Greta Gerwig has taken a 150-year-old story and made it as vital as ever before, despite many other film versions.

3. Marriage Story. Writer-director Noah Baumbach has presented the story of a divorce in a way that both parties are right, and both are wrong. Instead of taking sides, I felt sorry about the process.

4. Jojo Rabbit. It sounds impossible. A child in Nazi Germany with Adolf Hitler as an imaginary friend sounds like it would be horrible. Writer-director Taika Waititi finds a way to make a film which is both funny and heart-wrenching, and a lesson that prejudice is not natural, it is learned.

5. 1917. The single take feel, which sounds like a gimmick, actually places the viewer into World War I unlike any other war film. This makes it a film that is experienced rather than watched.

6. Ford v. Ferrari. It is technically well made, very entertaining reminder of what Oscar movies used to look like. Now it is considered a rarity in Hollywood. The racing scenes are as involving as any movie sports sequences ever.

7. The Irishman. There are great sequences. There are great performances. I don't think the 3 1/2 hours run-time is justified. Seeing it in a theater, I felt the run-time. I think it takes too long to get going and too long to wrap up, and that places this below six films that I think are more deserving.

8. Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood. This is 2/3 of a great film, with the portion around Leonardo DiCaprio and Brad Pitt, about aging movie guys trying to figure out where they stand in late '60s Hollywood. But the other third of the film, featuring the Manson family and Sharon Tate, uses those characters only as symbols for something or other and provide no insight into their existence. I still recommend the film, but it is more flawed than the films above.

9. Joker. It's a middling film with a middling director and containing a great lead performance by Joaquin Phoenix. All I got from this film is that its makers wanted is for everyone to feel miserable about life and everything it contains.

My Oscar ballot

If I had a ballot, this is how I would vote.

Best Picture: Parasite

Best Actor: Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory

Best Actress: Saoirse Ronan, Little Women

Best Supporting Actor: Joe Pesci, The Irishman

Best Supporting Actress: Florence Pugh, Little Women

Best Animated Feature: Toy Story 4

Best Cinematography: 1917

Best Costumes: Little Women

Best Director: Bong Joon Ho, Parasite

Best Documentary Feature: American Factory

Best Documentary Short: In The Absence

Best Editing: Ford v Ferrari

Best Make-up and Hairstyling: Bombshell

Best Original Score: Little Women

Best Original Song: "Into the Unknown" from Frozen II

Best Production Design: Parasite

Best Animated Short: Hair Love

Best Live Action Short: The Neighbor's Window

Best Sound Editing: Ford v Ferrari

Best Sound Mixing: Ford v Ferrari

Best Visual Effects: Avengers: Endgame

Best Adapted Screenplay: Little Women

Best Original Screenplay: Knives Out

Men In Black International (2019)

Seriously, did anyone making Men In Black International watch the original Men In Black? It contains Will Smith's finest comic performance. It also contains a fine comic performance by Vincent D'Onforio as the villain, and the been there, done that attitudes of Tommy Lee Jones and Rip Torn also add to the comedy.

Not with this installment. Whoever called the shots on this film -- word is, it isn't director F. Gary Gray -- decided this series is known for its action. The sort-of finished product has lots of non-descript action and very little of what passes for comedy. Tessa Thompson throws herself into her lead performance, but she has little support. The presence of Emma Thompson only reminds me that Men In Black 3 is a lot better than this.

For all the handwringing at the absence of Tommy Lee Jones and Will Smith from this episode, it is director Barry Sonnenfeld, who directed the first three, who is truly missed. Suddenly Men In Black 2 doesn't seem so bad anymore.

Grade: D+

2018 Top Ten

10. You Were Never Really Here. The comparisons with Taxi Driver are obvious, Except Joe (Joaquin Phoenix) is good at violence. He tries to do the right thing but is haunted with what he has seen. The violence is staged by director Lynne Ramsey in a way which gives no pleasure to the viewer. Kinda like in Taxi Driver.

9. The Hate U Give. Not just for Amandla Stenberg's star quality performance, but how the film so deftly shows how some African Americans have to nullify their attitudes to be accepted in a white dominated society.

8. A Quiet Place. Nothing intellectual here, just an acknowledgement that the theatrical experience was truly memorable. The creatures in the movie respond to sound, and you could hear a pin drop in the theater as no one wanted to make a sound.

7. Phantom Thread. Director Paul Thomas Anderson is an acquired taste, but he intrigues me every time. I was enraptured by his portrayal of a rigidly ordered man (Daniel Day Lewis) whose order collapses under the weight of his marriage.

6. Hearts Beat Loud. Just pure joy. Nick Offerman plays a record store owner who enjoys playing music with his daughter. Kiersey Clemons as the daughter is the discovery here, and the music is genuinely fun as well.

5. Leave No Trace. Director Debra Granik is best known for directing Winter's Bone, which was nominated for four Oscars. I think this is better. The portrayal of a father and daughter who live off the grid had an emotional pull that Winter's Bone did not quite achieve, and performances by Ben Foster and Thomasin McKenzie which pulled me in to the film.

4. Free Solo. The story of the first climb of a 3300 foot rock face in Yosemite with no safety equipment. The film is brilliant in getting the viewer to get to know the climber, Alex Honnold, and the climb, so that in the end when he makes the climb was more intense than any fictional action scene in years.

3. Won't You Be My Neighbor. If you love Mr. Rogers, this documentary of his life and philosophy will remind you why. You will need tissues.

2. A Star Is Born. The great showbiz tragedy with more life than I imagined. Holds up next to the 1937 and 1954 versions, which is saying a lot. You will need tissues.

1. Roma. It feels like an Italian neorealist classic. But there is amazing invisible use of effects to recreate 1970 Mexico City. The other films on this list are incredible. This is the one stone cold masterpiece. I have loved director Alfonso Cuaron's films before -- both Gravity and A Little Princess topped my lists of those years. Cuaron is at the absolute top of his game here, and at a level few directors ever reach.

2018 Top Ten (runners up)

Time to unveil my annual list of the best movies. As usual, my list is made up of movies which opened theatrically in 2018 in Columbus or Dayton. While all of this year's Oscar nominated best pictures actually opened in 2018, If Beale Street Could Talk and Cold War did not and will be eligible next year. Meanwhile, a Best Picture nominee and an Oscar winner from 2017 will be mentioned. Before listing my top ten, here are ten runners-up that just missed.

Annihilation. A truly unnerving film that takes its science fiction seriously.

BlacKkKlansman. Spike Lee delivers his best film since 4 Little Girls.

Black Panther. Marvel's best film to date.

Deadpool 2. The skydiving sequence was the loudest I laughed all year.

Eighth Grade. There is a reason this won the writers guild award for original screenplay.

A Fantastic Woman. Last year's Oscar winner for foreign film is the best treatment of transgenderism I have ever seen.

Juliet, Naked. I am a sucker for Nick Hornby's writing, and his continued look at men who haven't  quite grown up.

. 

Mission Impossible -- Fallout. The last 45 minutes were the best sustained action of the year.

Spiderman: Into the Spider-Verse. Endlessly original and witty, Oscar got animated feature correct.

Three Identical Strangers. The most unique story in a documentary this year.

My Oscar predictions/votes

Picture

Will win: Roma
Should win: Roma
Should be nominated: If Beale Street Could Talk

Director

Will win: Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
Should win: Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
Should be nominated: Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born

Actor

Will win: Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody

Should win: Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born

Should be nominated: Joaquin Phoenix, You Were Never Really Here

Actress

Will win: Glenn Close, The Wife

Should win: Yalitza Aparicio, Roma

Should be nominated: Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place

Supporting Actor

Will win: Mahershala Ali, Green Book

Should win: Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born

Should be nominated: Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther

Supporting Actress

Will win: Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk

Should win: Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk

Should be nominated: Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased

Animated Feature

Will win: Spiderman: Into the Spider-Verse 

Should win: Spiderman: Into the Spider-Verse

Should be nominated: the correct films are nominated

Cinematography

Will win: Roma
Should win: Roma
Should be nominated: Black Panther

Costume Design

Will win: The Favourite

Should win: Black Panther

Should be nominated: Crazy Rich Asians

Documentary Feature

Will win: RBG

Should win: Free Solo

Should be nominated: Won't You Be My Neighbor?

Documentary Short

Will win: Black Sheep

Should win: Period. End of Sentence.

Editing

Will win: Bohemian Rhapsody

Should win: BlacKkKlansman 

Should be nominated: A Star Is Born

Foreign Film

Will win: Roma

I have only seen two nominees, so will not pick a should win.

Makeup and Hairstyling

Will win: Vice

Should win: Vice

Should be nominated: Black Panther

Original Score

Will win: If Beale Street Could Talk

Should win: If Beale Street Could Talk

Should be nominated: Suspiria

Original Song

Will win: Shallow from A Star Is Born

Should win: Shallow from A Star Is Born

Should be nominated: The Girl in the Movies from Dumplin'

Production Design

Will win: Black Panther

Should win: Black Panther

Should be nominated: Annihilation

Animated Short

Will win: Bao

Should win: Late Afternoon

Should be nominated: Wishing Box

Live Action Short

Will win: Marguerite

Should win: Marguerite

Sound Editing

Will win: Bohemian Rhapsody

Should win: A Quiet Place

Should be nominated: Ready Player One

Sound Mixing

Will win: Bohemian Rhapsody

Should win: A Star Is Born

Should be nominated:  Ready Player One

Visual Effects

Will win: Avengers Infinity War

Should win: Avengers Infinity War

Should be nominated: Black Panther

Adapted Screenplay

Will win:  BlacKkKlansman

Should win: A Star Is Born

Should be nominated: Leave No Trace

Original Screenplay

Will win: Green Book

Should win: Roma

Should be nominated: Eighth Grade

My Best Picture Ballot

Given an Oscar ballot requires voters to rank their choices, and I have seen all of the nominees, here is how I vote and why. I think this is the weakest roster of nominees in years, with half of the nominees not deserving of a nomination.

1. Roma. Alfonso Cuaron has crafted a masterpiece. A first glance, this has the feel of an Italian neo-realistic classic such as Rome, Open City of Bicycle Thief. But the immediacy of those films was part of their merits. This is film is so crafted but maintains the illusion of immediacy, with a couple of astounding set pieces in the second half, and images I will never forget.

2. A Star Is Born. The greatest pleasures of this film are the small pleasures. When the two main characters are discussing a song being written, and the way they say "How do you hear it?" When she kind of embarrassingly says "I don't normally do this" and he responds "Good. Then we're on the same page." The editing, frequently overlapping concert sound with another scene. There are so many ways this could have gone wrong. I amazed how much went right.

3. Black Panther. Marvel has not made a better film. The pleasures of a superhero film are merged with real life political concerns. Ryan Coogler has made a film that speaks to African Americans but has a universal appeal at the same time. The Screen Actors Guild got it right: this is the best cast across the board of any film this year.

4. BlacKkKlansman. I felt the first half of the film is a little too slowly paced. However, the final half hour, which cuts back and forth between a Klan membership induction and a black students meeting is stunning. The meeting, in which an elder gentleman recalls Emmitt Till is riveting because it is Harry Belafonte giving the talk. Then the film wraps up in a way that brings it forward to today in a way that leaves the audience angry at our current society.

5. Green Book. Now we enter the undeserving part of the roster. Green Book is a pleasant buddy comedy with a dash of anger about the racism of the 60s. It is not some great statement about race relations, and it is nowhere close to as strong a film on the subject as Driving Miss Daisy (let alone Do The Right Thing).

6. Bohemian Rhapsody. The music scenes are really well done, and why I slimly recommended it. But this film does not appear to know what made Freddy Mercury tick, and the scenes of his home life way the film down. I would have preferred to see more of the band together in the studio and onstage, because that is when the film really sings.

7. The Favourite. Apparently it is really daring to show that the Queen had lesbian affairs! To me, it felt like a five year old who thinks it is the height of daring and hilarity to say "poopy" over and over. Sure, the film is well made, but what does it accomplish?

8. Vice. It is hard to believe that Adam McCay made both this and The Big Short. The Big Short had all kinds of insight as to what made the financial crises occur. Vice has no insight whatsoever as to what makes Dick Cheney tick. It is a well acted but ultimately empty exercise.

2017 Oscar Nominations Predictions

Best Picture

The Big Sick
Call Me By Your Name
Dunkirk
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri

Best Director

Luca Guadagnino, Call Me By Your Name
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri

 Best Actor
Timothee Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
Tom Hanks, The Post
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour

Best Actress

Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri
Margie Robbie, I Tonya
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Meryl Streep, The Post

Best Supporting Actor

Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Armie Hammer, Call Me By Your Name
Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
Christopher Plummer, All the Money In The World
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri

Best Supporting Actress

Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Holly Hunter, The Big Sick
Allison Janney, I Tonya
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water