One quick note on the rest of the nominations: I think it is going to be a very good night for Mad Max: Fury Road.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Emmanuel Lubezki (The Revenant) has won the last two years in this category. Robert Richardson (The Hateful Eight) already has won three. John Seale (Mad Max: Fury Road) already has an Oscar. Roger Deakins is a legend who has never won -- but Sicario isn't in other categories. I could also build a case for the gorgeous work of non-winner Edward Lachman in Carol. I just can't build a strong enough case against the three-peat.
Winner: The Revenant (Emmanuel Lubezki)
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
In a category usually dominated by period pieces, truly unique work not in the past can break through. That is one film this year.
Winner: Mad Max: Fury Road (Jenny Beavan)
BEST FILM EDITING
If Spotlight or The Big Picture wins here, that film will win best picture. But I suspect the winner in this category is the one with non-stop action that was still easy to follow.
Winner: Mad Max: Fury Road (Margaret Sixel)
BEST MAKE-UP
Frequently the most outlandish wins here.
Winner: Mad Max: Fury Road (Lesley Vanderwalt, Damian Martin, Elka Wardega)
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Not only is a legend long overdue, but he turned in great work this year.
Winner: The Hateful Eight (Ennio Morricone)
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
The subject matter has something to do with it. So does the fact Diane Warren has never won. So does the fact Lady Gaga is a major star, and this category like stars. It also happens to be the best song this year.
Winner: Til It Happens to You (The Hunting Ground): Dianne Warren, Lady Gaga
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Because of those amazing vehicles.
Winner: Mad Max: Fury Road (Colin Gibson; Katie Sharrock, Lisa Thompson)
BEST SOUND (both categories)
Winner: Mad Max: Fury Road
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
What was the most impressive effect this year? It really looked like Leonardo DiCaprio was actually mauled by a bear.
Winner: The Revenant (Rich McBride, Matthew Shumway, Jason Smith and Cameron Waldbauer)
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
When in doubt, vote for Pixar
Winner: Inside Out
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
One film has dominated the precursors this year.
Winner: Son of Saul
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
One film has dominated the precursors this year.
Winner: Amy
BEST DOCUMETARY SHORT
The favorite is Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah, And certainly, a film about a film about the holocaust certainly ticks the boxes to be a favorite. But if you have seen the shorts, you know one has a unique approach using animation and also is political. I'm predicting the upset.
Winner: Last Day of Freedom
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
I'm going with the most unique look which also has a unique storyline. Yes, I am betting against Pixar this year.
Winner: World of Tomorrow
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
A high quality category this year, and for me one of the most difficult calls. Sometimes the winner is the one that is different than the others. One film brings you into the life of its main character, demonstrates a sense of humor, and ends on a perfect note. So while I would not be surprised by wins by Day One, or Everything Will Be Okay (or disappointed as they are great as well), there is one film that stands out as unique this year.
Winner: Stutterer
Saturday, February 27, 2016
Oscar winner predictions (the top categories)
BEST PICTURE
In a year more competitive than most, part of trying to predict is to look at the methodology of picking winners. The Oscars used a ranking system, where a majority of voters have to agree on the winner, not just a plurality, I believe the different methodology is the difference between a win in the Oscars and most other awards is the difference between winning and losing for The Revenant.
I believe The Revenant will get the most first place votes. But not 50%, which is not what is needed. I also believe The Revenant will get the most last place votes, and will ultimately be eliminated.
So what does get 50%? It is certainly instructive that the only award that uses the same voting system as the Oscars is the Producers Guild. The PGA gave its best picture to The Big Short. But that's only the producers.
The biggest branch is the actors. What film has the most impressive display of acting? It might be The Big Short. It would not be surprising to me if it is. But one other film, well respected across the board, which has an impressive ensemble cast, including two acting nominees. I think the vote is one of the closest ever, but I see Spotlight pulling off what will be seen as some as an upset win.
Winner: Spotlight
BEST DIRECTOR
So does the methodology hurt The Revenant here? Maybe. Maybe not. I would not be surprised if Alejandro Innaritu does win. But if not him, then who? Both The Big Short and Spotlight's directors are nominated for their screenplays, and I think both are seen more as writing achievements than directing. Room isn't quite big enough for the award, I suspect, Which leaves one film, a career crowning achievement for its director, and a spectacle of a film as well. I am picking the upset.
Winner: George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
BEST ACTOR
No upsets here. Leo is overdue, he suffered for his art, blah, blah, blah.
Winner: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
BEST ACTRESS
Brie Larson became the frontrunner as soon as her film screened at Toronto. She's never moved from that status.
Winner: Brie Larson, Room
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Usually sentiment rules in one acting category. This is the category this year. The fact that it is Creed's only nomination, when the film deserved more nominations in many people's eyes, will only make the case stronger.
Winner: Sylvester Stallone, Creed
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
The toughest category to pick. I could build a case for any of the five nominees to win. The case I believe is that Alicia Vikander was brilliant in Ex Machina, which isn't even the performance for which she was nominated. And many times before the winner in supporting has more than one great performance in a year.
Winner: Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
BEST SCREENPLAY
My argument is the same for both categories is the same. Both categories have a script co-written by its director which take a complex real life scandal and create an easy to follow and entertaining movie.
Winner (Original): Spotlight
Winner (Adapted): The Big Short
other categories to follow
In a year more competitive than most, part of trying to predict is to look at the methodology of picking winners. The Oscars used a ranking system, where a majority of voters have to agree on the winner, not just a plurality, I believe the different methodology is the difference between a win in the Oscars and most other awards is the difference between winning and losing for The Revenant.
I believe The Revenant will get the most first place votes. But not 50%, which is not what is needed. I also believe The Revenant will get the most last place votes, and will ultimately be eliminated.
So what does get 50%? It is certainly instructive that the only award that uses the same voting system as the Oscars is the Producers Guild. The PGA gave its best picture to The Big Short. But that's only the producers.
The biggest branch is the actors. What film has the most impressive display of acting? It might be The Big Short. It would not be surprising to me if it is. But one other film, well respected across the board, which has an impressive ensemble cast, including two acting nominees. I think the vote is one of the closest ever, but I see Spotlight pulling off what will be seen as some as an upset win.
Winner: Spotlight
BEST DIRECTOR
So does the methodology hurt The Revenant here? Maybe. Maybe not. I would not be surprised if Alejandro Innaritu does win. But if not him, then who? Both The Big Short and Spotlight's directors are nominated for their screenplays, and I think both are seen more as writing achievements than directing. Room isn't quite big enough for the award, I suspect, Which leaves one film, a career crowning achievement for its director, and a spectacle of a film as well. I am picking the upset.
Winner: George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
BEST ACTOR
No upsets here. Leo is overdue, he suffered for his art, blah, blah, blah.
Winner: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
BEST ACTRESS
Brie Larson became the frontrunner as soon as her film screened at Toronto. She's never moved from that status.
Winner: Brie Larson, Room
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Usually sentiment rules in one acting category. This is the category this year. The fact that it is Creed's only nomination, when the film deserved more nominations in many people's eyes, will only make the case stronger.
Winner: Sylvester Stallone, Creed
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
The toughest category to pick. I could build a case for any of the five nominees to win. The case I believe is that Alicia Vikander was brilliant in Ex Machina, which isn't even the performance for which she was nominated. And many times before the winner in supporting has more than one great performance in a year.
Winner: Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
BEST SCREENPLAY
My argument is the same for both categories is the same. Both categories have a script co-written by its director which take a complex real life scandal and create an easy to follow and entertaining movie.
Winner (Original): Spotlight
Winner (Adapted): The Big Short
other categories to follow
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