Oscar predictions

NOTE: I'm pressing the deadline, so I am posting my predictions first and writing my explanation as the day goes on.

Best Picture

For awhile, it looked like American Hustle could play spoiler. That time has passed. And at no time have six of the nominees ever even seen the frontrunner status.

Since last fall, the two frontrunners have been 12 Years a Slave and Gravity. I suspect it is close. But I felt in the fall that the most likely result is a split in which 12 Years a Slave won picture and Gravity wins director. And ultimately, that is still my prediction.

When push comes to shove, the academy tends to pick the film that it views as Important. In a close race, I think that's the direction they go. And this year, that would be 12 Years a Slave.

Director

Just like last year, I think the winner is the director who had the most technologically complicated film but still delivered heart and emotion. Last year, that was Ang Lee for The Life of Pi. This year, that is Alfonzo Cuaron for Gravity.

Actor

The original thought that Chiwetel Ejiofor was going to be hard to beat for 12 Years a Slave has been trumped by the amazing two year run that Matthew McConaughey has had. Tonight, it will be announce that he won for Dallas Buyers Club. But really, he will win for Lincoln Lawyer, Bernie, Killer Joe, Mud, Magic Mike, The Wolf of Wall Street, an Dallas Buyers Club.

Actress

Cate Blanchett was the early favorite for Blue Jasmine. Then the scandal hit over the film's writer director. The Academy voters thought about Amy Adams, but I think ultimately the Academy has decided that Mia Farrow is not going to decide this category. Blanchett wins.

Supporting Actor

Jared Leto took this race over as soon as the movie was released. I think Barkhad Abdi got some consideration, but Dallas Buyers Club is beloved by many, and Leto is the heart of the film.

Supporting Actress

Lupita Nyong'o wins this, I believe, because her performance reminds me not of a newcomer who has one great performance and then disappears. This performance reminds me of Ralph Fiennes, who was so amazing in Schindler's List but that was just the first chapter of a long and distinguished career. Nyong'o's performance in 12 Years a Slave will be remembered as win we were introduced to a major talent.

Animated Feature

Frozen in a landslide (or maybe an avalanche).

Cinematography

Emmanuel Lubezki has shot all of Alfonzo Cuaron's films and the last three Terrance Malck films. So he is overdue for an Oscar. And Gravity is an amazing visual achievement. So he wins.

Costume Design

The look of American Hustle is a big part of its appeal, and to honor its 70s costumes is one way to pay it proper tribute.

Documentary Feature

The Act of Killing and 20 Feet from Stardom are so different. My gut says Act of Killing is too unique to be overlooked.

Documentary Short Subject

The subject of The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life is amazing, and voters will mistake a vote for this film as a vote for her.

Editing

In a category which I view as a complete toss-up, I am guessing that the tension created in the assemblage of Captain Phillips will be awarded.

Foreign Language Film

The Great Beauty seems to be the best fit.

Makeup and Hairstyling

Dallas Buyers Club is the most liked film in this category, so voters will vote for the film rather than the work.

Music (Original Score)

This year most reminds me of the years Randy Newman won original song. There is not an overwhelming choice. Yes, I know Gravity is the favorite. But who is Steven Price? And Alexandre Desplat is overdue, but Philomena is not one of his memorable scores. So that leads me to Randy's cousin, Thomas Newman. Amazingly, he has never won, despite nominations for Little Women, The Shawshank Redemption, Unstrung Heroes, American Beauty, Road to Perdition, Finding Nemo, Lemony Snicket, The Good German, Wall-E and Skyfall. His score for Saving Mr. Banks pays tribute to Mary Poppins. I think it springs the upset.

Music (Original Song)

No upset here. Let It Go is integral to the success of this year's best animated feature, Frozen

Production Design

This is one category that sometime wins for most production design.The Great Gatsby's production design did more to create a time and place.

Short Film (Animated)

Get a Horse! is a technical marvel, a loving tribute to the Disney tradition, a very funny short, and the obvious winner in this category.

Short Film (Live Action)

There are three shorts which have serious elements and are the race this year. Aquel No Era Yo (That Wasn't Me) captures the horror of African warfare in a way that many shorts have failed. Helium and Just Before Losing Everything could play spoiler.

Sound Editing

Gravity's sound design is integral to its success.

Sound Mixing

Gravity's sound design is integral to its success.

Visual Effects

Gravity in the easiest call of the night. This race was over as soon as the trailer was released.

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

This is my biggest upset pick of the night. The clear favorite is John Ridley's script for 12 Years a Slave. But I have this sense that voters love Philomena, and want to award it somewhere. This appears to be the best place to do that. Steve Coogan was so essential to the success of this film, and to award his writing seems to me to be the way to recognize the film as a whole.

Writing (Original Screenplay)

This is a race between two best picture nominees, Her and American Hustle. Both give an opportunity to award a visionary director. I am picking American Hustle because I sense more love to that film, and because David O. Russell deserves something for directing this, The Fighter, and Silver Linings Playbook in the past five years.