Oscar nomination predictions (part 2)

Here's the "big" categories, with commentary after. Note I am alphabetizing the predictions, not ranking the likelihood.

PICTURE

The Artist
The Descendants
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
The Help
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
Moneyball

Given the guild nominations, I have added The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo and subtracted The Tree of Life from my list since my last analysis. I can't see anything else cracking the list besides the seven above, The Tree of Life, or War Horse.

DIRECTOR

Woody Allen (Midnight in Paris)
David Fincher (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo)
Michel Hazanavivius (The Artist)
Alexander Payne (The Descendants)
Martin Scorsese (Hugo)

I can't believe I'm leaving out Terence Malick for The Tree of Life, but I can't figure out how he would replace any of these five. Which means that yes, I am matching the list of the director's guild.

ACTOR

George Clooney (The Descendants)
Leonardo DiCaprio (J. Edgar)
Jean Dujardin (The Artist)
Michael Fassbender (Shame)
Brad Pitt (Moneyball)

Clooney, Dujardin, and Pitt are all shoo-ins, and the three contenders in this category in likely best picture nominees. Fassbender is in a small film, but has had a good year, which often gets rewarded. Most of the other main contenders are in smaller films: Michael Shannon in Take Shelter, Gary Oldman in Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, and Demian Bachir in A Better Life. DiCaprio's film may be considered a disappointment, but it still grossed twice what those three films did combined. So I have DiCaprio almost by default.

ACTRESS

Glenn Close (Albert Nobbs)
Viola Davis (The Help)
Rooney Mara (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo)
Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady)
Michelle Willaims (My Week with Marilyn)

Streep and David are locks. Williams is in a poor performing film, but she abaolutely nails it. Then this gets trickier. I'm very shaky about Close, and would not be surprised is she is out. I've got her in basically by name recognition. Tilda Swinton has made alot of list, but no one has seen We Need to Talk About Kevin. So I have Mara partially due to the film getting several other nods. I considered Charlize Theron, but didn't put her in because Young Adult I don't conceive as well liked.

SUPPORTING ACTOR

Kenneth Branagh (My Week with Marilyn)
Albert Brooks (Drive)
Jonah Hill (Moneyball)
Nick Nolte (Warrior)
Christopher Plummer (Beginners)

Plummer's a shoo-in -- in fact, I've got him winning the award easily. I would be surprised in Branagh and Brooks are passed over, both former nominees. And any misgivings about Hill were washed away by the crowd reaction at the Golden Globes. But that fifth slot has me wavering.
Max von Sydow seemed assured early in Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, but the tide for that film never arrived. Same with another former nominee, Viggo Mortenson in A Dangerous Method. When Young Adult faltered, Patton Oswalt's chances went with it. Same with Armie Hammer in J. Edgar. Robert Forster is great in The Descendants, but has only a couple of scenes. I almost went with Ben Kingsley as Hugo is beloved. But there is a definite buzz around Nolte's performance. So I went with him.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Berenice Bejo (The Artist)
Jessica Chastain (The Help)
Melissa McCarthy (Bridesmaids)
Octavia Spencer (The Help)
Shailene Woodley (The Descendants)

Spencer and Bejo are shoo-ins. Chastain has had a great year, and I think would have been nominated for The Tree of Life had not The Help been in the same year. This has been a good category for comic scene stealers, and that certainly describes McCarthy's performance.
The fifth slot had some big former nominees contending: Janet McTeer in Albert Nobbs, Vanessa Redgrave in Coriolanus, and Carey Mulligan in Shame. But none of their films were big. So I'm going with Woodley, who's in a likely best picture nominee.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

The Artist (Michel Hazanivicius)
Bridesmaids (Annie Mumolo & Kristen Wiig)
Midnight in Paris (Woody Allen)
A Separation (Asghar Farhadi)
Win Win (Thomas McCarthy & Joe Tibani)

The Artist is getting a ton of nominations and the writers love Woody, so write those two down in ink. Other than supporting actress, this seems the category to honor Bridesmaids' surprise success. McCathy always writes great characters, so I expect that to be honored. And with the fifth category wide open, I did not find any contender strong enough to prevent a surprise foreign nominee in A Separation.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The Descendants (Nat Faxon, Alexander Payne, Jim Rash)
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (Stephen Zaillian)
The Help (Tate Taylor)
Hugo (John Logan)
Moneyball (Aaron Sorkin and Steven Zaillian)

Only best picture nominees need apply in my predictions.